该文作者是《华盛顿邮报》前驻北京记者潘文（John Pomfret）和 美国前副国家安全顾问博明（Matt Pottinger）
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中国领导人习近平一直在为战争做准备，并在他的讲话中编织了战争准备的主题。中国政府已经宣布将国防预算增加7.2%，并计划使国家减少对外国粮食进口的依赖。近几个月来，中国公布了新的军事准备法、新的防空洞和全国范围内新的 "国防动员 "办公室。
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目前还不清楚这些发展意味着什么，以及冲突是否迫在眉睫。然而，北京发生了一些变化，全世界的政策制定者和商业领袖都需要注意到。
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如果习近平说他正在为战争做准备，相信他的话将是明智的。密切关注北京正在进行的发展是很重要的。
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全国人民代表大会和中国人民政治协商会议今年同时召开，中国共产党发表了一篇文章，呼吁加速军事现代化和军民融合。它还对美国进行了隐晦的嘲讽，提到了习近平在2022年10月的一次讲话。
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北京已经颁布了一项新的法律，使人民解放军能够更容易地启动其预备役部队，以及《关于调整刑事诉讼法若干规定在战时适用于军队的决定》，该决定可能被用来针对反对接管台湾的个人。福建省的国防动员办公室和防空洞也已开放和升级，该省的政府网站已被阻止从海外IP地址访问。
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这些措施表明，中国领导人可能正在为一场可能的冲突做准备，解放军可能利用《关于调整部分条款适用范围的决定》来要求对可能被占领的领土，如台湾，进行法律管辖。
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中国人民政治协商会议讨论了建立包括台湾副总统在内的台湾支持独立的活动人士和政治领导人黑名单的建议。
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即将离任的李克强总理宣布2023年的军事预算为1.55万亿元人民币（约合2248亿美元）。
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西方专家认为，中国少报了其国防开支。
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中国领导人习近平发表了四次讲话，描述了暗淡的地缘政治格局，指出美国是中国的对手，劝说私营企业为中国的军事和战略目标服务，并重申了他对统一台湾和大陆的愿望。
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习近平警告说，"风险和挑战 "在未来一段时间内只会增加，并变得更加严峻，并发誓要 "正确引导 "私营企业投资于国家优先考虑的项目。
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极端民族主义博主周小平提出了支持独立的活动家的黑名单，他说会议已经接受了这一建议，并 “转达给相关部门进行评估和考虑”。
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习近平赞扬了周小平在2014年对台湾和美国的讽刺言论。
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习近平发表了一系列讲话，他在讲话中讨论了军事动员、自给自足和结束对进口的依赖。
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习近平还抨击了美国及其盟友，声称是他们造成了中国目前的问题。
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习近平还呼吁开展 "国防教育 "运动，使社会团结在解放军的背后。
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分析家们过去低估了习近平，现在必须认真对待他。
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习近平正在加强一项运动，以打破对美国领导的民主世界的关键经济和技术依赖。
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他将民族复兴等同于统一，这可能表明他愿意使用武力来夺取台湾。
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目前还不清楚习近平是否认为他可以在不冒与美国不受控制的升级风险的情况下拿下台湾。
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拜登政府正在强调 "护栏 "和其他减缓美中关系恶化的手段。
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习近平正在为一个新的、更具对抗性的时代做准备。
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Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been preparing for war and has been weaving the theme of war readiness through his speeches. The Chinese government has announced a 7.2 percent increase in defense budget and plans to make the country less dependent on foreign grain imports. In recent months, China has unveiled new military readiness laws, new air-raid shelters, and new “National Defense Mobilization” offices countrywide.
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It is unclear what these developments mean and whether or not conflict is imminent. However, something has changed in Beijing that policymakers and business leaders worldwide need to take note of.
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If Xi Jinping says he is readying for war, it would be wise to take him at his word. It is important to pay close attention to the ongoing developments in Beijing.
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The National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference are meeting simultaneously this year, and the Chinese Communist Party has published an essay calling to accelerate military modernization and Military-Civil Fusion. It also made veiled jabs at the United States, referencing a speech by Xi Jinping in October 2022.
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Beijing has enacted a new law that would enable the People’s Liberation Army to more easily activate its reserve forces, as well as a Decision on Adjusting the Application of Certain Provisions of the Criminal Procedure Law to the Military During Wartime that could be used to target individuals who oppose a takeover of Taiwan. National Defense Mobilization offices and air-raid shelters have also been opened and upgraded in Fujian Province, and access to government websites in the province has been blocked from overseas IP addresses.
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These measures suggest that Chinese leaders could be preparing for a possible conflict, with the PLA possibly using the Decision on Adjusting the Application of Certain Provisions to claim legal jurisdiction over a potentially occupied territory, such as Taiwan.
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Proposals to create a blacklist of pro-independence activists and political leaders in Taiwan, including Taiwan’s vice president, were discussed by the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.
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Outgoing Premier Li Keqiang announced a military budget of 1.55 trillion yuan (roughly $224.8 billion) for 2023.
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Western experts believe that China underreports its defense expenditures.
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Chinese leader Xi Jinping gave four speeches in which he described a bleak geopolitical landscape, singled out the US as China’s adversary, exhorted private businesses to serve China’s military and strategic aims, and reiterated his desire to unify Taiwan and the mainland.
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Xi warned that “risks and challenges” will only increase and become more severe in the coming period, and vowed to “correctly guide” private businesses to invest in projects that the state has prioritized.
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Ultranationalist blogger Zhou Xiaoping proposed the blacklist of pro-independence activists, which he said had been accepted by the conference and “relayed to relevant authorities for evaluation and consideration.”
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Xi praised Zhou for his jeremiads against Taiwan and the US in 2014.
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Xi has given a series of speeches in which he has discussed military mobilization, self-sufficiency, and ending reliance on imports.
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Xi has also blasted the United States and its allies, claiming they are causing China’s current problems.
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Xi has also called for a “National Defense Education” campaign to unite society behind the PLA.
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Analysts have underestimated Xi in the past and must now take him seriously.
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Xi is intensifying a campaign to break key economic and technological dependencies on the U.S.-led democratic world.
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He is equating national rejuvenation with unification, potentially signaling a willingness to use force to take Taiwan.
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It is unclear if Xi thinks he can take Taiwan without risking uncontrolled escalation with the United States.
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The Biden administration is emphasizing “guardrails” and other means of slowing the deterioration of U.S.-China relations.
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Xi is preparing for a new, more confrontational era.