US President Joe Biden would enjoy a large lead over former President Donald Trump if Trump faced more federal and state criminal charges related to his conduct, according to a poll of 1,571 registered voters by Republican polling firm WPA Research. The poll found 47% of voters preferred Biden over Trump, who garnered 40%. The result was a 14-point lead for the sitting president among registered independents. If Trump faced charges in Georgia, where there is a grand jury investigation into his election-loss efforts, Biden's lead would extend to 49% to 39%, growing to 21 points on independents’ voting preferences.
Asian investors are eyeing several significant economic indicators from Japan and Australia on Thursday, as well as an interest rate decision from the Philippines. However, the main hope for a rebound in Chinese markets could be the prospect of a US deal on the federal debt ceiling, which has boosted stocks and the dollar. The mettle of that claim may be tested, however, after the poorest set of Chinese economic indicators in over six months caused a 1% decline on Wednesday. Nonetheless, Japan is on a high after Q1 GDP growth outperformed expectations and the Nikkei rose over 30,000 points for the first time in 20 months.
The White House has defended Joe Biden's decision to cut short his tour of Asia to resolve the debt-ceiling standoff with Republicans. The US president's meetings with Pacific island leaders and attendance at the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue summit in Sydney were both put on hold while he returned to Washington, leading to accusations that it benefitted China. White House adviser Jake Sullivan, while en route to Japan, said that the postponed work could be "done at a later date," but the negotiations over the debt limit and budget could not be put off.
The Group of Seven meeting, set to begin on Friday, will see Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida appeal to the seven wealthiest democracies to scrap nuclear arms and work towards “a world without nuclear arms”. The strength of his case will be challenged by the security situation in the region, with Japan’s neighbours, North Korea, China and Russia being the possessors of about half of the world's nuclear warheads. The US has recently brought more assets close to Japan and South Korea in a bid to increase deterrence to counter the rising nuclear threats around the world; G-7 statements have highlighted other concerns over non-proliferation, including the rising atomic ambitions of Iran. Critics argue that the US is pulling the group towards an increase in nuclear weapons capability when Kishida is appealing for disarmament. Leaders are therefore expected to try for a balance between disarmament and countering nuclear threats.
Negotiations over raising the US debt ceiling have been held up by the introduction of work requirements for federal aid. The bill, passed by the House in April, would bring in new work requirements for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, and Medicaid assistance for adults without dependents. Legislators are now debating the proposal, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy insisting that the work requirements be part of negotiations with Joe Biden over raising the debt limit to avoid a national default. While the President has signalled his openness to a possible compromise, many in his party are concerned over the harm the changes could have to vulnerable Americans. Anti-hunger groups have highlighted that new work requirements could cause needy families to lose out on benefits, without significantly reducing the government's spending in these areas, with over 1 million older adults at risk of losing their food assistance.
Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has signed five bills prohibiting transgender medical treatments and limited pronoun usage in classrooms. The legislation titled 'Let Kids Be Kids' bans transgender-identifying children from receiving treatments, including puberty blockers and hormone therapy. The bills require public bathrooms and changing rooms to be used according to biological sex, and one new law gives the state the power to issue licenses to businesses that allow children to attend 'adult live performances' such as drag shows. Medical associations have criticized the legislation, labeling it a political intrusion in healthcare. Governor DeSantis is expected to run for the presidency in 2024.
US President Joe Biden is set to meet with South Korean and Japanese leaders during the upcoming G7 leaders summit in Japan, according to White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. A trilateral meeting will be attempted between the leaders.
Leaders of the G7 countries – the US, Japan, Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Canada – face several challenges as they gather in Hiroshima. The global economic outlook is unstable, while Russia continues its actions in Ukraine and China expands its economic and strategic growth. The G7 will need to address several issues, including enlisting middle countries such as those in Africa, and addressing China without creating undue confusion. Moreover, with concerns around nuclear proliferation and use re-emerging, the monitoring architecture of nuclear arsenals needs to be maintained to avoid future use of nuclear weapons. Finally, as global temperatures continue to rise and heatwaves become deadlier, coordinated responses and the regulation of cryptocurrency will become increasingly important.
Oil prices saw a slight decline over worries of increasing supply, with Brent crude futures dropping by 24 cents to $76.72 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude dipping 21 cents to $72.62. While both benchmarks showed a near 3% rise on Wednesday in relation to optimism over US debt ceiling negotiations and oil, US oil inventories rose by five million barrels to 467.6 million barrels last week due to another release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, US gasoline inventories fell as demand increased to its highest since 2021. Price concerns also revolve around US debt ceiling negotiations.
Montana has become the first US state to enact a total ban on TikTok, with the law coming into effect in January 2024. In addition to barring TikTok from operating in the state, the law also prohibits its download. Tech companies have expressed doubts that the ban will be possible to impose, while the state's American Civil Liberties Union described the law as "excessive government control". TikTok, which has over 1 billion users globally, including 150 million in the US, has faced privacy concerns and alleged links to the Beijing government.
Voters in Northern Ireland went to the polls yesterday to elect 462 councillors to Northern Ireland’s 11 councils in local government elections. No party has overall control over Belfast City Council, the largest local government area. It is the parties’ first electoral test since last year’s Assembly elections and comes amidst ongoing changes and continued stalemates with the powersharing institutions and the DUP’s protest against post-Brexit trading arrangements. The Alliance Party, with 53 councillors, made the largest gains in last year’s Assembly elections and will be hoping to increase their seats this year alongside Sinn Fein, which is running 162 candidates and hopes to emulate its Assembly election success.
The G7 will meet in Japan and there are increasing expectations that the group will tighten economic sanctions against Russia. Despite the reality that sanctions have affected Russia with a heavy toll, it is widely believed they have not succeeded in their geopolitical aims. The sanctions have instead driven Russia deeper into the embrace of emerging-market nations such as China, India and Turkey, providing leverage for Russian foreign policy and making a nonsense of western compliance efforts. There is even wider concern related to the potential that sanctions could collapse an already weak global economy. The EU has also recently announced that it was considering penalties for EU firms that help Russia evade western sanctions, such as providing financing, investing in sanctioned sectors, or sharing technologies that could aid the energy sector.
The Group of Seven countries and the European Union will meet in the western Japanese city of Hiroshima next week. As well as the Ukraine war and the growing dominance of China and the threat to Taiwan, issues surrounding supply chains, economic and energy security are set to be discussed. Several Asia-Pacific countries, including India, Indonesia, South Korea, Vietnam and Australia, will be joining the group. Additionally, the attendance of India is likely to highlight developing nations.
The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by US President Joe Biden in August, has spurred a subsidy race and rankled foreign allies and global companies with its economic protectionism. Despite prompting concerns from some G7 leaders and global CEOs, Japanese officials have agreed a trade deal with the US to expand eligibility for EV tax credits. Tesla has declared a strategy shift centred on the Act’s incentives while Mercedes-Benz and Audi are looking to invest further in the US. However, some of the biggest global drugmakers are preparing to fight the Act’s plan to negotiate Medicare drug prices.
European shares are expected to rally on the news of progress in U.S. debt ceiling negotiations. Wall Street and Asian stocks were lifted by the news that an agreement has been reached for direct discussions between President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy. Smaller, focussed negotiation teams were also agreed on, helping some analysts feel Western nations have moved closer to an advanced stage in discussions. European macro indicators will be in short supply, meaning that US indicators — including Philly Fed survey, jobless claims, existing home sales and data relating to China's post-COVID recovery — will be strongly watched.
Leaders from seven of the world's wealthiest democracies and the EU are meeting at this year's Group of Seven (G7) summit, which kicked off on Friday in the Japanese city of Hiroshima. The talks are expected to cover tensions in the Asia-Pacific following the exclusion of China from the summit, with much of the early attention focused on growing fears over North Korea's nuclear programme. The situation in Ukraine and Britain's EU referendum will also feature on the summit’s agenda.
President Joe Biden met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Hiroshima and delivered a speech emphasizing the importance of allies standing together to make the world a safer place. The two leaders also discussed US support for Japan's plans to hold a delayed Tokyo Olympics next year, as well as US investment in Japan and Hiroshima, including from US chipmaker Micron Technology.
Joe Biden's re-election 2024 campaign is planning to retain the key battleground states he won in 2020, while also trying to make gains in states he lost including North Carolina and Florida. Re-election campaign chief, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, emailed interested parties to say the Democrats will plan early investments to keep Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Hampshire, while also targeting Georgia and Arizona. The email did not specifically address former president Donald Trump, but referred to Democrats "prevailing over the MAGA extremist agenda once again". Biden's presidential campaign strategy generally focused on painting former president Trump and his supporters as a direct threat to American political values. National Democrats remain firmly behind Biden, who will face only token opposition in the party's presidential primary from self-help author Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine activist Robert Kennedy Jr.
President Joe Biden's reelection campaign plans to hold the states that won him the White House in 2020 but also compete in places it lost like North Carolina and increasingly Republican-dominated Florida. Biden’s political advisers have long argued that Biden beat Trump once and can do so again. The campaign aims to spread its message online and through in-person contacts with voters, but will rely heavily on leveraging voters' existing social circles as "trust in people’s personal networks has never been stronger". The president faces only token opposition in the party's primary.
The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to introduce a digital euro. The move would change the way currency is issued and used and address issues such as the decline of cash and the concern over the rise of rival digital currencies posing a threat to the ECB's monetary sovereignty. The idea is not appealing to many European consumers, banks or politicians and in Amsterdam earlier this year, demonstrations were held against the digital euro. Critics fear it could lead to state control of individuals' spending activity, while banks worry it could trigger bank runs as people move their money into a currency backed by the central bank. Some banks also fear that, as they will process the currency's day-to-day transactions, they might not get paid for their work. The ECB has said the digital euro should be free for consumers to use and that banks would do the processing.
