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在乌克兰战争爆发一年后,中国公司正在评估他们在俄罗斯和乌克兰市场的得失。
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一些大的中国公司已经撤出俄罗斯,而较小的公司则在克里姆林宫越来越多地转向友好国家时利用他们的赌注。
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由于俄罗斯经济前景黯淡,国内中产阶级萎缩,俄罗斯企业越来越多地从中国竞争对手那里采购商品。
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根据中国官方数据,去年,俄罗斯进口了价值4.0439亿美元的用于医疗、外科、牙科或兽医的中国仪器和器具,同比增长超过50.2%。
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中国与俄罗斯的贸易在其所有主要贸易伙伴中增长幅度最大。去年的整体贸易增长了29.3%,达到1903亿美元,高于2021年的1470亿美元和2018年的1080亿美元。
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能源贸易是双边贸易的压舱石。俄罗斯一直是中国最大的能源供应商,也是北京的第二大原油出口国。
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中国和俄罗斯在2019年同意到2024年将贸易额翻一番,达到2000亿美元。
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乌克兰的战争对中俄贸易产生了重大影响。如果战争继续下去,双边贸易预计将继续得到支持。
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中国投资者将有兴趣挖走西方公司之前参与的项目,而且可能会有更多的直接相互投资。
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在过去的20年里,中国的投资已经超过了500亿美元,包括北极LNG-2和东方石油项目,以及相互参与多个IPO项目。
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中国经济今年的开放将进一步推动俄罗斯对华出口,包括石油和其他石油精炼产品。
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根据中国官方数据,2022年,中国与乌克兰进行了价值70亿美元的商品交易,按美元计算,同比下降60.3%,其中中国进口下降56.4%,出口下降60.5%。
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一些中国企业发现与乌克兰的贸易前景甚至没有与俄罗斯的贸易前景那么乐观。
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Chinese companies are assessing their gains and losses in the Russian and Ukrainian markets, a year into the Ukraine war.
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Some big Chinese firms have pulled out of Russia, while smaller ones are leveraging their bets as the Kremlin increasingly turns to friendly countries.
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Russian firms have been increasingly sourcing goods from Chinese competitors due to their bleak economic outlook and shrinking middle class in the country.
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Last year, Russia imported US$404.39 million worth of Chinese instruments and appliances used for medical, surgical, dental or veterinary purposes, marking a year-on-year increase of more than 50.2 per cent, according to official Chinese data.
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China’s trade with Russia saw the biggest rise among all of its major trade partners. Overall trade last year rose by 29.3 per cent to US$190.3 billion, up from 2021’s US$147 billion dollars and 2018’s US$108 billion.
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Energy trade is the ballast stone for bilateral trade. Russia has been China’s biggest energy supplier and the second-biggest exporter of crude oil to Beijing.
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China and Russia agreed in 2019 to double trade to US$200 billion by 2024.
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The war in Ukraine has influenced Sino-Russian trade significantly. If the war continues, bilateral trade is expected to continue to be bolstered.
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Chinese investors will be interested in scooping up the projects that Western companies have previously taken part in, and there may be more direct mutual investment.
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Chinese investments have exceeded US$50 billion in the past 20 years, including the Arctic LNG-2 and Dongfang Petroleum projects, as well as mutual participation in multiple IPOs.
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China’s economy opening up this year will give a further boost to Russian exports to China, including petroleum and other oil-refined products.
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In 2022, China traded US$7 billion worth of goods with Ukraine, a year-on-year decrease of 60.3 per cent in US dollars, with Chinese imports down by 56.4 per cent and exports down by 60.5 per cent, according to official Chinese data.
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Some Chinese firms are finding the outlook for trade with Ukraine even less rosy than with Russia.