War in Ukraine (6do encyclopedia)



The War in Ukraine, also known as the Russo-Ukrainian War, is an ongoing conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation that started in 2014. The war began as a result of the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine, which resulted in the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych, a move that was seen as pro-Western. This move was opposed by Russia, who saw Ukraine as its sphere of influence.

The conflict has been characterized by various acts of aggression, including the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, the ongoing insurgency in eastern Ukraine, and the covert and overt support of separatist rebels in the region. The war has resulted in the deaths of thousands of people, both civilians and members of the military.

Background

The roots of the conflict can be traced back to Ukraine’s historical ties to Russia. Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, but the two countries have long been closely connected by shared histories, cultures, and languages. This connection has often been fraught with tension, and Ukraine’s position between the West and Russia has made it a geopolitical battleground.

The conflict also has its roots in Ukraine’s push for closer ties with the European Union (EU) and its move towards a more pro-Western stance. This was seen as a direct challenge to Russia’s interests in the region. The Euromaidan protests in 2014, which were sparked by Yanukovych’s decision to pull out of an association agreement with the EU in favor of closer ties with Russia, led to his ousting and the subsequent annexation of Crimea by Russia.

Annexation of Crimea

In February 2014, pro-Russian separatists began seizing government buildings in Crimea, an autonomous republic within Ukraine. This followed the ousting of Yanukovych and the installation of a pro-Western government in Kiev. The separatists were backed by Russian forces, who were soon deployed to the region.

In March 2014, a referendum was held in Crimea, which was recognized as illegal by most of the international community. The referendum resulted in the annexation of Crimea by Russia, which was also condemned by the international community.

The annexation of Crimea was a major turning point in the conflict, and it was seen as a direct challenge to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It also led to the imposition of sanctions by the West on Russia, which has had a significant impact on the Russian economy.

Insurgency in Eastern Ukraine

Following the annexation of Crimea, pro-Russian separatist rebels began fighting Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine. The rebels declared the creation of autonomous regions in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which became known as the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic.

The fighting in eastern Ukraine has been marked by various acts of aggression, including the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in July 2014, which killed all 298 people on board. The aircraft was shot down by a Buk missile that was fired from territory controlled by pro-Russian rebels. The incident was widely condemned and led to increased sanctions on Russia.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine has been ongoing since 2014, and despite ceasefires and peace agreements, it has continued to simmer. The conflict has resulted in the deaths of thousands of people, including civilians, and has led to the displacement of millions of people.

International Response

The international response to the War in Ukraine has been varied. The West has largely condemned Russia’s actions in the region and has imposed sanctions on Russia. The sanctions have had a significant impact on the Russian economy, but they have not led to a resolution of the conflict.

The United Nations has also been involved in attempts to resolve the conflict. In 2015, the Minsk II agreement was signed, which was aimed at ending the fighting in eastern Ukraine. The agreement called for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons, and constitutional changes in Ukraine. However, the agreement has not led to a lasting ceasefire.

Conclusion

The War in Ukraine is an ongoing conflict that has resulted in the deaths of thousands of people and has had a significant impact on the region. The conflict has its roots in Ukraine’s move towards a more pro-Western stance, which was seen as a challenge to Russia’s interests in the region. The annexation of Crimea and the insurgency in eastern Ukraine have led to increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia, as well as between the West and Russia. Despite numerous attempts to end the conflict, it remains unresolved.


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China to send special envoy to seek ‘political settlement’ to Ukraine war

Financial Times

23-05-12 11:19


China is sending an envoy to Ukraine, Russia, and other countries to discuss a political settlement to the Ukraine crisis. Former Chinese ambassador to Moscow, Li Hui, will visit Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany, and Russia. Li’s visit comes as Ukraine prepares its spring counter-offensive, and it follows a phone call between presidents Xi Jinping of China and Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine last month. China has laid out a 12-point proposal to end the war, however, it does not include many of Ukraine’s key demands for peace, such as Russian forces must first withdraw from Ukrainian territory before any negotiations.

https://www.ft.com/content/95efdce6-e2f5-4db1-92e6-72a5516497ad
Arms-to-Russia accusation sends South Africa rand to record low

Financial Times

23-05-12 10:19


The South African rand hit a record low against the US dollar after the US accused President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government of covertly supplying arms to Russia, which could affect trade ties. The rand shifted to R19.35 against the US dollar after the US ambassador to South Africa claimed that weapons and ammunition were loaded onto a Russian ship under US sanctions in Cape Town in 2020. The event taints South Africa's image as a trusted partner and puts its preferential access to US markets through the African Growth and Opportunity Act at risk.

https://www.ft.com/content/78d92277-7ae3-4b84-9cdf-37924dc09407
EU says China will take advantage of Russian defeat in Ukraine

Financial Times

23-05-12 04:19


The EU must respond to China's global ambitions and be aware it will "take geopolitical advantage" of a defeat for Russia in Ukraine, according to EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell. High on a two-day discussion agenda for EU foreign ministers, the talks will focus on redressing the bloc's stance towards China with a three-pronged approach of “partner, competitor, rival” with more emphasis on a "rival", according to insiders. In a letter, Borrell favoured a "de-risking" strategy rather than embracing the US’s hardline approach, and urged EU leaders to "find a coherent strategy" that deals with Beijing's rising nationalism.

https://www.ft.com/content/b18e073e-f280-4189-82a1-536f39eb3ebb
Why Putin Needs Wagner

Foreign Affairs

23-05-12 04:00


Russia's private military company (PMC) Wagner has become a crucial means of reigning in the Russian military for President Vladimir Putin, who sees it as a potential threat to his rule, according to a report in Foreign Policy. The group has been active in the siege of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. Reportedly capable of launching offensive operations, it has also proved ferocious and brutal in its tactics and has incurred catastrophic losses. Its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has launched verbal attacks at Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, casting doubt on the PMC's relationship with the Kremlin. However, the PMC is not a standalone force and the origins of Wagner can be traced back to the origins of the GRU, the Russian military intelligence agency.

The Wagner PMC has evolved from being a secretive, deniable proxy mercenary force to a large military unit with operations in several countries and its own artillery, air force and film production to glorify its deeds. Wagner also boasts its own production company and a corporate headquarters. This has raised questions of how much of the Russian military is supportive of the PMC. While Putin has relied heavily on informal and deniable military forces since the Soviet era, the GRU’s support of Wagner does not guarantee Wagner’s safety. In the early 2000s, the GRU was responsible for supervising a proxy military battalion in Chechnya, which was run by Ruslan Yamadayev, a powerful warlord. Yamadayev was assassinated in 2008, while sitting in his car in Moscow.

However, despite his caustic criticisms of the Ministry of Defense, Wagner chief Prigozhin has some support from within the military and has retained backing from the GRU so far. Reportedly, since Russia lost significant territory to Ukraine in September, the country’s heavily controlled media has been ordered to help promote Wagner and its activities in Ukraine. Without knowing the extent of intelligence and military support for Prigozhin and Wagner, it remains to be seen how long they can last as Putin’s means of reigning in the military.


https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/why-putin-needs-wagner

FirstFT: US and China hold ‘candid’ talks in effort to defuse tensions

Financial Times

23-05-11 22:19


US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has held two days of “candid, substantive and constructive” talks with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Vienna. The talks touched on a range of issues including the US-China relationship, global security matters, Russia’s war against Ukraine and Taiwan. Efforts to start high-level dialogue between the US and China earlier this year were largely unsuccessful. Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancelled a planned visit to China in February after a suspected Chinese spy balloon flew over North America.

https://www.ft.com/content/f2edf4f4-ec24-4023-bae4-3a2ee647db27
Why Vladimir Putin isn’t shutting down the outspoken ‘thug’ running the Wagner Group

The Toronto Star

23-05-16 00:07


Analysts are trying to understand the motivations behind Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the notorious private military company, the Wagner Group, who continues to flout what is acceptable in a time of war, despite having had talks with Ukraine which could be considered treasonous. He was also behind the Russian troll farm behind the effort to sway the results of the 2016 US presidential election. As the Russian military efforts stall, some analysts believe that in Russia he is becoming more important than President Vladimir Putin. Abbas Gallyamov, a political analyst and former Putin speech writer, said: “The situation is changing dramatically, and the things that were previously unimaginable are now becoming realistic.” Thus, Prigozhin may be making preparations for a smooth transition from the battlefield to the Russian political arena with ambitions of founding a conservative political movement. Russian military intelligence analyst, Oleksandr Danylyuk, has suggested that Prigozhin's angred persona may simply benefit Putin's strategic narrative that regime change in Russia would be bad for the West.

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2023/05/15/why-vladimir-putin-isnt-shutting-down-the-outspoken-thug-running-the-wagner-group.html
EU top diplomat calls on bloc to court developing countries

Financial Times

23-05-16 05:18


The EU's chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, has called for a tailored approach to reaching out to countries in the developing world, and has urged the EU to accept that these countries will not take sides in disputes such as that between Russia and Ukraine. Borrell's comments come ahead of a G7 summit in Japan, a meeting that will aim to persuade developing countries to align themselves with the G7 in condemning Russia's actions. Borrell added that Europe would need to work hard to gain the trust and respect of developing nations.

Research suggests that Europe’s desire to plough billions of dollars into gas infrastructure banks on a future that may not materialise. Even if energy becomes cheaper, gas consumption is set to fall in Europe, with the fossil fuel infrastructure being seen as unnecessary by 2030 by some. The push towards renewables due to environmental concerns will coincide with a reduction in gas consumption, which could decrease by almost a third in a low price scenario. Politicians have argued that much of the gas infrastructure can be converted for use in the production of green hydrogen produced by renewable power, however, engineers have warned this may not be a cost-effective investment.


https://www.ft.com/content/c87a3208-8816-4144-860a-4a27d6f5baeb

EU urged to crack down on imports of Indian fuels made with Russian oil

Financial Times

23-05-16 04:21


The EU should restrict Indian reselling of fuel made out of Russian oil, which is allowed under sanctions, the bloc's foreign policy high representative has said. Controversially, Indian refiners buy Russian crude oil, which is sold to Europe as market-price fuels. While it is legal under EU sanctions, critics object that it enables Moscow to make a substantial amount of revenue from oil sales, a crucial contributor to Russian state finances. Despite the G7 price cap limiting sales of Russian crude oil to other countries to $60 a barrel, India has become a huge buyer of the commodity since the Ukraine invasion. EU foreign policy high representative Josep Borrell has said it is fine for India to buy "Russian oil, it’s normal," but highlighted his concern over a large volume of the oil now being returned to Europe.

https://www.ft.com/content/ebb851db-6ff6-4334-a47f-dd176b2adf2f
US and EU step up efforts to co-ordinate sanctions policies

Financial Times

23-05-16 04:19


The US and EU are increasing collaboration on sanctions policies in an effort to make western economic policies more effective. The two will jointly target Russia and other important countries and will harness technical coordination to make deployment of economic weapons easier in the future. Both countries have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s banks and top officials along with co-ordinated regulatory efforts to speak with a single voice. However, splits did occur over how far to go in isolating Russia, with G7 export bans failing due to resistance from European countries.

https://www.ft.com/content/9dcc6d8e-89cc-46ce-beeb-db5e37f9bc09
Russian oil exports hit post-invasion high

Financial Times

23-05-16 09:19


According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in April, Russia exported more oil than it had at any point since its full invasion of Ukraine last year. Almost 80% of the crude shipments reportedly flowed to China and India, reflecting Moscow’s success in finding new buyers, particularly since Europe blocked imports and new vessels to transport the oil cargoes. Moving to new, little-known trading companies and tanker-owners, Russia has achieved one of the largest commodity flow shifts, directing millions of barrels of oil per day from Europe to Asia over the last 12 months. In total, Russia shipped 5.2 million barrels a day of crude in April and 3 million barrels a day of refined petroleum products.

https://www.ft.com/content/525f042c-d35d-4dac-aaed-c5fbf0d6bbd2
Kyiv says it repelled ‘exceptional’ barrage of Russian missiles

Financial Times

23-05-16 12:19


Russia has claimed that it successfully took out a US-made Patriot missile system in Kyiv during an attack, which Ukraine has denied. General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said all 18 projectiles, including six hypersonic Kinzhals and nine Kalibr cruise missiles, had been downed overnight. Despite Moscow's claims that the missile system had been destroyed, Yuriy Sak, an adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister, dismissed them as "pure propaganda and pure lies." The strikes come over a year into Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.ft.com/content/86831fe5-edc3-42ac-b5e9-339eb710a0d4
Ukraine detains supreme court chief justice on suspicion of bribery

Financial Times

23-05-16 17:19


Ukrainian anti-graft prosecutors have accused Vsevolod Kniaziev, the supreme court chief justice, of taking bribes worth $2.7m from an oligarch in return for a ruling in the latter’s favour. The judiciary is currently in the midst of a long-term anti-corruption drive, but the arrest of the judge could have far-reaching constitutional implications.

https://www.ft.com/content/87baf538-2282-4bd4-a492-12ea17213c72
US sues to block drug merger

Financial Times

23-05-17 04:34


The US Federal Trade Commission has filed a lawsuit against biotech company Amgen, seeking to block its $28.3bn acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics. The FTC argues that the deal could cause price hikes of between 40% and 60% for a range of drugs including cinacalcet, used to treat kidney disease, which is produced by the two companies. The antitrust regulator also warned of "rampant consolidation" in the pharmaceutical industry and called for greater scrutiny of mergers and acquisitions.

https://www.ft.com/content/5da1851a-c6d5-40ca-bc1b-49df9dc2e214
Estonian PM pleads with companies to resist ‘ghost trade’ with Russia

Financial Times

23-05-17 04:20


Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, has told local companies that she had to "plead" with them to find a "moral compass" and decline deals that may result in Moscow accessing sanctioned goods. Previously, it was noted by the Financial Times that an alarming $1bn of goods had passed through the Baltic states, believed to be partly part of Moscow's "ghost trade". Estonia and similar nations have seen a rise in exports to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia transiting through Russia, leaving suspicion about the scheme being used to circumvent the western sanctions regime.

https://www.ft.com/content/1a17dacf-9c8d-46fe-860d-36ae9b708987
Can China Thread the Needle on Ukraine?

Foreign Affairs

23-05-17 04:00


China is attempting to persuade both sides of the Ukraine conflict to resume negotiations, casting itself as a neutral and helpful global leader. This move comes as China becomes increasingly pessimistic it can prevent the deteriorating US-China relations. While Beijing wishes to preserve its relationship with Russia, it fears that its position viewed as pro-Russia will poison its reputation in Europe, further harming its security environment. As a result, China has attempted to be neutral and offer its good offices to bring both sides to the negotiating table.

The Ukrainian conflict presents complicated challenges for China, potentially strengthening US alliances in Europe and beyond. As a result, Beijing has begun to offer its good offices to resolve the crisis, articulating a vision for global security and becoming more involved diplomatically. China aims to position itself as neutral and limit its support for Russia, even as it prioritizes its partnership with its closest strategic partner.

Recent remarks by the Chinese ambassador to France that the status of Crimea depends on how the problem is perceived provoked widespread condemnation, and 80 European lawmakers urged the French government to expel the ambassador. The Chinese government tried to downplay the situation, stating that the ambassador was only expressing his personal views. China is likely to do just enough to cast itself as a helpful and responsible global leader but not enough to be held accountable for achieving an end to the Ukraine conflict on terms that would be fair and acceptable to both sides.


https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/can-china-thread-needle-ukraine

Russia admits ‘problems’ as energy revenues fall

Financial Times

23-05-17 19:19


Russia's finance minister, Anton Siluanov, has admitted that oil and gas revenues have fallen to their lowest levels in years due to "problems" caused by "all these discounts," which have caused energy revenues to fall by over 50% in Q1 2015. Russian oil has traded at a discount to global benchmarks due to G7-led price caps on Russian oil and refined petroleum products; this discount has narrowed as Russia has turned to non-western shipping, though it remains significant enough to weigh on government coffers. In addition to the sanctions, researchers at the Kyiv School of Economics estimate that Russia's economy is going to shrink by over 6% this year, while Ukraine's economy is predicted to stabilise at 1%, suffering a total fall of 25% due to the ongoing conflict.

https://www.ft.com/content/c99fc8e9-35d5-42c6-9361-5012d5dec581
China is elephant in the room as leaders head to G7 summit

Financial Times

23-05-18 05:18


Leaders from the EU, Germany, France and Italy are set to join the G7 summit in Hiroshima, where tensions surrounding China are expected to dominate. While the thread linking the issues of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Indo-Pacific tensions and the promotion of free market policies on trade is Beijing, negotiations are likely to be tricky; European officials are wary of directly anti-Chinese language, believing engagement with China is the smarter way to address the issue and cautious of creating more of a “west vs rest” global picture. Developing and emerging countries have also reportedly expressed concern that the G7 is focused too heavily on Ukraine and not enough on their needs and priorities.

Before the EU elections next June, Brussels lawmakers are bracing themselves for the mountain of legislation they have to get through, which includes around 200 files still open for approval by MEPs and member states, as well as proposals yet to be presented. With just over a year to go until the European Parliament votes again, including on rules relating to the digital euro and transparency requirements for NGOs, Brussels’ consensus on the new laws’ priority runs the risk of limiting progress on key environmental legislation. Proposals such as the new rules on healthy soils and genomic techniques for plants have already been been delayed or dropped from the commission agenda, to the alarm of EU commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who has warned the EU would struggle to absorb more environmental laws.


https://www.ft.com/content/15f67705-a9e3-49f5-a14d-052db3044e30

Ukraine’s allies fear military support will fade in US election year

Financial Times

23-05-18 04:19


European officials are growing concerned that support for Ukraine against Russia has peaked and fear that the flow of aid will be disrupted in 2023 as the US enters a divisive presidential campaign. Although there are sufficient preapproved funds to sustain Kiev for five more months, major questions remain over whether the US government will meet its existing $48bn aid package, particularly as it requires a vote in Congress in the autumn against a background of increased partisan debate on the war. European allies say that current levels of support could be sustained for a year or two but not for longer.

https://www.ft.com/content/bf182b8d-8f0b-4f73-b49a-ab79fa59bdb6
G7 leaders to discuss proposal for Ukraine peace summit

Financial Times

23-05-18 11:18


The G7 leaders are set to debate endorsing a proposed Ukraine peace summit with the aim of promoting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's proposal for how to end Russia's war against Ukraine rather than Beijing's proposal. Zelenskyy's 10-point plan includes a demand for Moscow to withdraw all its troops from Ukraine and for the country's full territorial integrity to be restored. China's version requires Russia to withdraw troops before peace negotiations are opened. The move by the G7 is seen as an effort to bolster support for Zelenskyy's peace plan, which has its Western allies concerned over the possible decline in US military support to Ukraine ahead of next year's US election. Ukraine has confirmed that it has contacted Beijing to reiterate that it will not accept a peace agreement involving a loss of Ukrainian territory and that it is interested in getting China involved in implementing the Ukrainian peace formula. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has blamed Ukraine for the lack of progress in peace talks, has so far not indicated that he will accept any solution other than a complete capitulation from Kyiv.

https://www.ft.com/content/54b763e8-c7ee-40a8-aabc-2dfecbccf4e0