The European Union (EU) faces the challenge of how to absorb Ukraine, a country of 35 million inhabitants, into its fold, transforming the bloc and questioning its governance. EU leaders have pledged to expand the group to accommodate Ukraine and Moldova, raising questions of when and how to absorb them, how big the enlargement should be, and how to keep western Balkans and grey zones between Russia and Nato space from being vulnerable. The EU's founding members seek an "ever closer union", but the bloc's dilution into a diverse set of nations raises fears of paralysis among France, Germany, and other member states.
As G7 leaders meet in Japan to discuss a range of subjects, it is thought that new sanctions against Russia could be on the cards to increase economic pressure on Moscow's war machine. Targets include ships, aircraft, individuals and Russia’s diamond exports, which still remain relatively unscathed by western sanctions. The initiative to curtail diamond imports seeks to implement a mechanism for tracking and tracing individual gems throughout the industry. The fall in Russia’s energy revenues, which fell more than 50% in the first quarter of this year, has increased the importance of other sources of funding for the Kremlin’s war machine with diamond exports contributing $4bn in 2015. The G7 has been grappling with how to trace Russian diamonds, and impose restrictions on the import thereof, but this summit manifestly aims to finally achieve progress.
The Pentagon overestimated the value of weapons sent to Ukraine by $3bn in a recent accounting error. US officials have said that funds for arming Ukraine with lethal equipment will last until October; the overestimation of aid may yet change this calendar, however. The accounting error arose from its incorrectly using the cost of replacing the weaponry sent from military stockpiles with new equipment, rather than the purchase price plus depreciation. The error may have an impact on the timing of further assistance to Ukraine.
The Group of Seven (G7) needs to target companies in 'secrecy jurisdictions' to tackle Russian evasion of sanctions, according to investigations cited in an op-ed in the Financial Times. Secrecy jurisdictions have provided a key tool for Russia to gain access to critical goods, such as machine tools and semiconductors, for the US-led alliance. The multinational Russian Elites, Proxies and Oligarchs Task Force have identified avoidance vehicles “located in jurisdictions that are tax or corporate formation havens, which may afford a degree of secrecy to Russian elites and their proxies” and a focus on enforcement could reduce sanctions evasion.
European natural gas prices have fallen below €30/megawatt hour, reaching the lowest levels since June 2021, indicative of the ample supplies already in storage as traders refill ahead of next winter and tepid gas demand in the region. Europe has built enough inventory, with storage capacity nearly 65% full and almost a fifth higher than the previous five-year average. The price fall marks a step back to the normal trading range, as the continent has mostly overcome Russia's weaponisation of energy supplies that saw prices soar over ten times their normal level last summer.
The G7 summit in Hiroshima is particularly important given the current geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and tensions between China and the US. President Biden is keen to coordinate with democratic allies to deal with both issues. Observers will be watching for a convincing show of unity from the G7 on both China and Russia, and to see if that unity extends beyond rhetoric. The American emphasis on the G7, rather than the G20, marks a shift from a period dominated by economics and globalisation to a new era defined by politics and strategic rivalries.
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will attend the G7 Summit in Japan this weekend to bolster western support for Ukraine and to secure the backing of outside nations. Ukraine is in its 16th month of war with Russia and Zelenskyy is expected to make a plea for greater military support from western allies, including the US. Attendees of the G7 Summit have been warned that Zelenskyy’s presence could result in a summit focused on the war in Ukraine. The Japanese Prime Minister is keen for the summit to provide a focus on security issues in the Indo-Pacific region and on outreach with developing countries.
Many companies are struggling over whether to withdraw from the Russian market in the wake of the country's seizure of Ukrainian territory. While some companies have withdrawn swiftly, others have played a long waiting game, watching the situation unfold. For those that have decided to leave, there were new rules that made divestment very difficult and costly. In December 2022, the Kremlin mandated that companies wanting to leave must divest at a 50% discount after government asset valuations have been completed. Companies still operating in Russia face the dilemma of how to draw a “red-line” on when to exit, while others struggle with the moral obligation of supporting a repressive regime. While civil society experts have argued that remaining companies could pay around $18bn in taxes to Russia's war effort, others maintain that a societal license to operate in Russia is diminished if they stay on in the country, indirectly supporting a one-sided war.
Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, has been named as a participant at Russia's flagship economic forum in St Petersburg, according to a draft programme seen by the Financial Times. However, some listed on the document said they had no intention of attending, with Kremlin efforts to attract foreign investment hindered by its toxic brandability amid western allegations of war and invasion in Ukraine. A lack of confirmed western names, including Lucid Motors CEO Peter Rawlinson and Stanford professor Ilya Strebulaev, has cast further doubt on Russia's ability to attract global business leaders.
The resumption of flights between Russia and Georgia has sparked concerns that Georgia is drifting closer to Moscow's orbit at the expense of its pro-European and pro-western stance. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, is known to have pursued a strategic ambiguity since gaining power in 2020, courting the US, the EU and also the Kremlin.
According to a new report, Russia's use of nuclear weapons for corporate strategy appears to be changing, with some experts warning that the country is seeking to expand its nuclear muscle-flexing. Russian nuclear orthodoxy - the idea that nuclear weapons and traditional values are the two pillars of Russia's statehood and the main guarantors of its physical and moral security - has been a widespread public belief since before the Second World War. During the recent invasion of Ukraine, a “special military operation” had a nuclear component from the outset and in August 2014, Moscow announced that it was putting its nuclear forces "on a special mode of combat duty." It has since repeatedly threatened to use its weapons if the West crosses various redlines. However, these have mostly been dismissed as empty threats by the West.
Russia’s military and foreign affairs periodicals and statements by the country’s defence defence intellectuals have indicated that the country’s nuclear establishment’s main concern is a US “prompt global strike” that decapitates the Russian military’s supreme command and nullifies its nuclear retaliation capacity. Russian sources assume that the US will employ nonnuclear offensive and defensive means to achieve these aims. The Russian military plans to deter this hypothetical blitzkrieg by demonstrating to the US its capacity to repulse US airspace strikes, suppress US missile defence systems, and deliver unacceptable nuclear damage to the American homeland.
Against the backdrop of these forthcoming innovations, within the Russian public, an extraordinary ideational climate has emerged over the past year. Nuclear weapons have become a popular topic of conversation, including in the media. The notion that using nuclear weapons should be a last resort but not an unthinkable option has become routine in Russian media and has framed common thinking about escalation in war. The sources of nuclear normalisation are unclear, it may be a naturally emerging, bottom-up phenomenon that reflects the zeitgeist. Alternatively, it may be a construct by the Kremlin as part of its saber-rattling.
The African mediating mission announced by South Africa's president Cyril Ramaphosa may merit a mention when historians write about the rise of the post-unipolar world, according to an op-ed in the Financial Times. The author, Alec Russell, argues that the quixotic mediators from Africa underscore the accelerating assertiveness of the countries of the “global south”. Many non-western nations have seen the west's full-throttle support for Ukraine and regard it as hypocritical, with powers once again prioritising their own interests and concerns over other global issues such as health and climate change. The crisis has led to a renewed focus on the idea of six African heads of state criss-crossing the front lines of a European war, which threatens to totally rewrite the post-1945 world order.
The Brics summit in Durban in August will be a cacophonous showcase for the contradictions within the new “non-aligned movement”. The group consists of two autocracies, Russia and China, two big democracies, Brazil and India, and the host, and junior relation, South Africa. Now over a dozen more countries are interested in joining, including Iran. The risk, particularly for India and Brazil, is that the Brics could tilt ever more into becoming a China club.
The author suggests that the west should lead by example, commit finally to reforms of the global order and choose words more carefully. The Biden administration has been building bespoke regional alliances, but China is also busily convening summits of its own. New world orders, it is cautioned, are of course easier to declare than realise. South Africa’s chaotic mediating pas de deux with Russia is seen as an object lesson in how not to play the non-aligned game.
Russian mercenary group Wagner's front company acquired tens of thousands of protective helmets from China in late 2021 despite western sanctions intended to stop a private army designated as a "transnational crime organisation" by the US, according to the Financial Times. A Wagner-connected, Russia-based company called Broker Expert bought 20,000 polymer-based helmets from a small Chinese company called Hangzhou Shinerain Import And Export Co in November and December last year, according to customs declarations analyzed by the FT, whose analysis indicates that sanctions have failed to stem the group's activities.
Russian human rights organization OVD-Info has explained why Russian citizens have been reluctant to protest against the state when hundreds have opposed the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia has seen daily “signs of resistance” since the decade-long Kremlin political crackdown began, with protests ranging from leaflet distribution to the burning of military recruitment offices, however, they have been met with jail sentences and state-sponsored hounding. The Kremlin’s repression has been guided by fear of a democratic wave across the former Soviet Union, as well as preparations for war. Russians who voice their opinions are often attacked by the government, with the majority of the population afraid to either support or oppose the war. Ordinary Russians are living with the fear of committing thought crimes and opposing the conflict, whilst the government continues its relentless persecution of protesters; since 2015, 496 people have been put through criminal prosecution and more than 60,000 protesters punished for minor offences.
In a diplomatic victory for Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the US will allow allies to supply F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, with the US Military assisting in training Ukrainian pilots to fly the aircraft. President Biden has said the US will offer support to a joint effort to train Ukrainian pilots, before later equipping them with F-16s, delivering one of the most significant upgrades to Ukraine's military after last year's full-scale Russian invasion. Biden made the announcement to G7 leaders. Kiev has been working to construct a coalition of nations ready to supply F-16s and has now garnered support from the UK, France and the Netherlands.
This move will strengthen Ukraine’s depleted air force and boost air defence capabilities, allowing ground operations that challenge Russia’s tactical air supremacy over the frontline. The Netherlands, which is phasing out F-16s, could be a major supplier to Ukraine. Belgium and Denmark also have F-16s. The training will take place in Ukraine and Europe, and potentially other countries may be involved. The process could take months before jets can fly over Ukraine’s skies. Meanwhile, with the increasing probability of a full-scale conventional war, Russia may soon sign a defense pact with Belarus to boost its security.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to attend the G7 summit on Sunday, allowing him to confront Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, two crucial developing countries that have maintained close ties with Moscow despite the country’s invasion of Ukraine, about their lack of support for sanctions against Russia, with their obfuscation over who is to blame for the conflict in which Kyiv is preparing to push for battlefield gains. Experts believe Zelenskyy’s presence should serve as a ‘symbol of unity’ against Russia.
There was no plan B for Russia in Ukraine and Putin cannot win, lose, or stop, according to New York Times columnist, Thomas Friedman. He reveals that Ukraine's 1991 independence was seen as an "unfortunate historical misunderstanding" by the Russian elite, who have sought to bring Ukraine back into the fold ever since. Ukraine, just like Russia, did not have a plan B; the fight against Russian aggression and its invasion of the eastern part of Ukraine has been long and tiring. Marich believes Ukraine's path to peace "is NATO."
Germany is preparing to publish its first comprehensive national security strategy. The strategy will be published some time next month, ahead of a Nato summit in July. The purpose of the strategy is to set out a conceptual framework for policymakers to plan foreign, defence and security policies. It will assess both long-term and immediate challenges, sending a useful signal to citizens, allies and rivals about how leaders see the world and their country's place in it. The new German strategy is built on three concepts: vigorous defence, resilience and sustainability. Germany's friends on both sides of the Atlantic are keen to see Berlin take more responsibility for European security, spend more on defence, and above all, think strategically. However, the initiative seems a useful way to flesh out the ideas contained in a landmark speech that Chancellor Olaf Scholz made just days after the war’s outbreak. This has become known as his Zeitenwende speech after the word he coined to suggest that Russia’s invasion marked a“historical turning point” or an“epochal shift in geopolitics.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that Russian forces and paramilitary group Wagner have captured the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, following a bloody and months-long battle that reduced the city to ruins. Putin described it as his first major victory since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Bakhmut was the longest and bloodiest battle between Russia and Ukraine since the invasion began. Reports also suggest that Russia has retaken territory lost to Ukraine in recent weeks, although Kyiv has continued counter-attacks on Russian forces flanking the city.
Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has pushed for global unity and clear leadership in the face of Russia's aggression as he attended the G7 summit in Hiroshima. Using the opportunity to confront India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi and Brazil's President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who have maintained diplomatic ties with Moscow, Zelenskyy raised his 10-point plan to end the Ukraine conflict. The US has been a significant backer of Ukraine since Russia invaded the country in 2014, with the Biden administration unveiling a new $375m arms package for Ukraine to aid it in its defence against Russian aggression.
