习近平更愿意冒险,中国越来越大胆挑战世界秩序|华尔街日报

  • 随着习近平开始其作为国家元首的第三个任期,中国现在正显示出一种新的自信。这是中国摆脱孤立时期的结果,并相信它有军事和经济力量来塑造更符合其利益的世界。最近,中国政府促成了沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之间的缓和,令世界感到惊讶,而习近平现在正寻求介入结束俄乌战争的努力中。

  • 中国愿意以如此强硬的方式介入这些冲突,标志着中国对自己和自己在世界上的作用的看法进入了一个新阶段。它发出了一个信息,即中国和它的朋友们不再有义务遵守美国领导的全球秩序,并对华盛顿提出了挑战,因为它试图塑造一个它认为是在民主国家和专制国家之间分裂的世界。

  • 然而,中国在乌克兰战争中被认为倾向于俄罗斯,这削弱了习近平作为基辅支持者中的中立仲裁者的可信度。本周,当俄罗斯向乌克兰发射新一波导弹和武装无人机,在基辅地区的一所学校宿舍中杀死4人时,这一点再次得到强调。

  • 中国已经从韬光养晦的政策转变为积极促进其在全球的经济、政治和军事利益,包括通过其 "一带一路 "倡议。它有大量的投资和侨民需要保护,并且正在寻找战略资源。

  • 习近平主席最近公布了三项新倡议,以便将中国定位为一个其他国家可以与之做生意、寻求安全保障、并找到尊重的国家。他明确表示,中国不会走殖民化或霸权主义的道路,并对美国领导的遏制和压制中国的努力提出警告。

  • 习近平还确认了他作为中国国家主席的第三个任期,并利用立法会议来推进他对世界的愿景。他强调,中国不会将自己的价值观或模式强加给其他国家。

  • 习近平的言论反映了中国试图作为西方的对立面,作为一个经济模式和一个可以对抗美国领导的西方秩序的大国。

  • 卡内基国际和平基金会的中国问题专家Paul Haenle认为,中国正试图以一种不同的方式展示自己,并在中国和美国的角色之间形成对比。

  • 中国正在采取与2000年代中期不同的国际外交方式。

  • Paul Haenle认为中国的做法明显不同,特别是在全球舞台上愿意承担风险。

  • 在伊朗-沙特和乌克兰问题上,中国愿意承担风险。

  • 习近平对风险的容忍度比任何人预想的都要高得多,而且正在采取比中国过去愿意做的更大胆的措施。

  • 中国认为,美国过于注重安全,并且过于频繁地使用其军队。

  • 中国希望世界各国,特别是全球南方国家,将中国视为一个理性的声音和一个良性的力量。

  • 中国正试图将自己作为美国领导的西方秩序的替代者。

  • 习近平先生不顾西方的谴责,成功地在香港、新疆和南中国海宣示了北京的权威,这使他胆子更大了。中国在发展中国家中找到了相当多的支持,因为它把美国描绘成虚伪和自私的人。中国在新疆大力开展的外交努力使穆斯林占多数的国家保持沉默。

  • 中国的言辞在发展中国家很管用,因为他们把美国描绘成诉诸军事干预,而把中国描绘成和平缔造者。在习近平先生提出严格的新冠清零政策后的三年里,美国召集了一个与西方结盟的富裕国家组成的全球联盟,为中国创造了一个更加艰巨的国际环境。

  • 中国被认为与俄罗斯结盟,削弱了西欧各国首都的任何势头,而台湾的领导人已经觉醒,召集他们的公众认识到冲突的可能性,并升级了他们的能力,提高了他们在西方大国中的地位。习近平先生担心国际社会对台湾作为反抗的象征的关注和同情日益增加。

  • 中国在全球舞台上取得了外交上的胜利,包括洪都拉斯的承认和促使美国重开其在所罗门群岛的大使馆。

  • 中国还小心翼翼地进入了阿富汗和缅甸,并在非洲之角将自己定位为一个中立的调解人。

  • 中国正试图为自己在全球舞台上创造一个类似于美国的角色,并试图在美国主导的世界中把自己定位为一个仁慈的大国。

  • 如果中国的和平协议破裂,其争取国家支持的努力就会受到影响,因为这可能使中国看起来很天真或无能。

  • 中国在海外冲突中的纠缠会削弱其活力。

  • 中国可能不需要通过实现世界和平来促进其利益,因为它只是想向世界表明它不是一个威胁,而美国是一个威胁。

  • 中国为俄乌制定的12点和平计划回避了分裂莫斯科和基辅的最棘手的问题。

  • 由于沙特和伊朗之间存在严重的不信任,在沙特和伊朗的外交中取得进一步进展可能会很困难。

  • 在中国国内,习近平先生发出的美国正在包围中国以阻止中国崛起的信息,提供了一个强有力的怨恨叙述,助长了民族主义。

  • China is now showing a newfound assertiveness as Xi Jinping begins his third term as the country’s head of state. This is a result of emerging from a period of isolation and believing it has the military and economic power to shape the world more to its interests. Beijing recently surprised the world by brokering a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Xi is now looking to insert himself into efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

  • China’s willingness to wade into these conflicts in such a strident way marks a new phase in the country’s vision for itself and its role in the world. It sends a message that China and its friends are no longer obliged to conform to a U.S.-led global order, and poses a challenge to Washington as it tries to shape a world it sees as divided between democracies and autocracies.

  • However, China’s perceived inclination toward Russia on the Ukraine war has undercut Xi’s credibility as a neutral arbiter among Kyiv’s backers. This was highlighted again this week when Russia launched a new wave of missiles and armed drones into Ukraine, killing four people in a school dormitory in the Kyiv region.

  • China has shifted from a policy of biding its time to one of actively promoting its economic, political, and military interests across the globe, including through its Belt and Road initiative. It has large investments and diasporas to protect, and is looking for strategic resources.

  • President Xi has recently unveiled three new initiatives in order to position China as a country which other nations can do business with, seek security guarantees from, and find respect in. He has made it clear that China will not take the path of colonization or hegemony, and has warned of U.S.-led efforts to contain and suppress China.

  • Xi also confirmed his third term as China’s president, and used the legislative session to further his vision for the world. He emphasized that China will not impose its own values or models on other countries.

  • Mr. Xi’s rhetoric reflects China’s attempt to serve as a counterpoint to the West, as an economic model and a power that can stand up to the U.S.-led Western order.

  • Paul Haenle, a China expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes China is attempting to present itself in a different light and is creating a contrast between the roles of China and the U.S.

  • China is taking a different approach to international diplomacy than in the mid-2000s.

  • Paul Haenle sees a strikingly different approach from China, particularly in its willingness to take risks on the global stage.

  • China is willing to take risks with regards to Iran-Saudi Arabia and Ukraine.

  • Xi Jinping is much more tolerant of risk than anyone had anticipated and is taking bolder steps than China has been willing to do in the past.

  • China believes the U.S. is too security-focused and uses its military too often.

  • China wants countries around the world, particularly in the Global South, to regard China as a voice of reason and a benign power.

  • China is attempting to present itself as an alternative to the U.S.-led Western order.

  • Mr. Xi has been emboldened by his success in asserting Beijing’s authority in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and the South China Sea, despite Western denunciations. China has found considerable support among developing nations for its portrayal of the US as hypocritical and self-serving. China’s vigorous diplomatic efforts in Xinjiang have resulted in silence from Muslim-majority countries.

  • China’s rhetoric works well in the developing world, as they portray the US as resorting to military intervention and China as peacemakers. In the three years since Mr. Xi’s strict zero-Covid policy, the US has rallied a global coalition of wealthy Western-aligned countries, creating a more daunting international environment for China.

  • China’s perceived alignment with Russia has sapped any momentum in Western European capitals, and Taiwan’s leaders have awakened and rallied their public to the potential for conflict and upgraded their capabilities, raising their profile among Western powers. Mr. Xi is concerned about growing international attention and sympathy for Taiwan as a symbol of defiance.

  • China has been scoring diplomatic victories on the global stage, including recognition from Honduras and prompting the US to reopen its embassy in the Solomon Islands.

  • China has also stepped gingerly into Afghanistan and Myanmar, and positioned itself as a neutral mediator in the Horn of Africa.

  • China is attempting to create a role for itself on the global stage similar to the US, and is trying to position itself as a benevolent power in a world dominated by the US.

  • China’s efforts to win countries to its side could be undermined if its peace deals fall apart, as this could make the country look naive or impotent.

  • China’s entanglements in overseas conflicts could sap its dynamism.

  • China may not need to deliver world peace to advance its interests, as it is merely trying to show the world that it is not a threat, and that the US is a threat.

  • China’s 12-point peace plan for Russia-Ukraine sidesteps the most nettlesome issues dividing Moscow and Kyiv.

  • Making further headway in Saudi-Iran diplomacy may prove difficult due to deep mistrust between the two countries.

  • Back home in China, Mr. Xi’s message that the US is encircling the country to forestall China’s rise offers a powerful narrative of grievance that feeds nationalism.

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