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中国的经济将在今年春天从去年新冠疫情驱动的低迷中反弹。
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严厉的新冠清零限制措施，再加上这个冬天，这种疾病一下子袭击了中国的所有地方，肯定会对商品和服务产生一些压抑的需求。
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即将离任的李克强总理在下个月向全国人民代表大会提交年度政府工作报告时，可能会勾勒出政府的部分战略。
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然而，复苏的程度以及它对中国贸易伙伴的促进作用有多大，将取决于中国政府在多大程度上准备解决其内部保护主义。
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由于中国政府的鞭打政策使公民变得更加谨慎，人们一直在谈论购买新车的现金券、折扣和减税，以使消费者放松他们的钱包。
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但是，正在谈论的这些措施都不会产生超过短期的冲击。
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为了真正确保消费者有能力和信心进行更多消费，中国必须走得更远。
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在宏观层面上，它必须放开自己的内部市场，提高家庭可支配收入，解决储蓄过剩的原因。
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几十年来，中国的公司一直面临着扼杀跨区域销售的障碍。
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中国有一个计划，要建立一个统一的国家市场，打破这些障碍，创造一个公平和透明的商业环境。
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这一计划因中国政府对新冠疫情的回应而蒙上了阴影。
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习近平主席的目标是使消费者支出成为经济的 “主要驱动力”。
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新冠疫情已经伤害了家庭收入，而北京对住房市场的攻击已经削弱了个人财富。
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习近平谈到了建立一个 "长效机制 "来扩大居民的消费。
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这将创造一个环境，使人们能够在收入稳定的情况下进行消费，并有强烈的消费欲望。
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北京提出了广泛的供给侧改革，以改善中国经济，提高消费者收入。
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自2015年以来，农村振兴战略的一部分是利用网络商务的便利性来满足消费者的需求。
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这导致了农村网络销售的快速增长，此后有所放缓，但仍然比整体GDP增长快。
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在实现零碳排放后，北京现在需要加快经济的生产和分配方面的转型，以获得进一步的生产力收益。这将是一项艰巨的任务，因为它涉及到建立一个统一的能源市场，打破城市和农村劳动力市场之间的障碍，以及拆除进入市场的障碍。
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习近平远远不是一个典型的经济自由主义者，他可能会调整政策以确保国有部门成为市场开放进程的赢家。在未来几年内，市场转型的短期效益不太可能迅速显现。
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要把中国的消费者变成国家的增长引擎，除了开放的国家市场外，还需要对经济的需求方进行结构性改革。这不太可能取代政府刺激措施的诱惑力。
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China’s economy is set to rebound this spring from last year’s COVID-driven slump.
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Draconian zero-COVID restrictions, followed by a winter in which the disease hit everywhere in China all at once, surely created some pent-up demand for goods and services.
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Outgoing Premier Li Keqiang may sketch out parts of the administration’s strategy when he delivers the annual Government Work Report to the National People’s Congress next month.
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However, the extent of the recovery and how much of a boost it will mean for China’s trading partners will depend on the degree to which Beijing is prepared to tackle its internal protectionism.
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As Beijing’s whipsawing policies have made citizens much more cautious, there has been talk of cash vouchers, discounts and tax breaks for purchases of new vehicles to get consumers to loosen their purse strings.
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But none of the measures being talked about would create more than a short-term bump.
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To truly ensure that consumers have the ability and confidence to spend more, China must go much further.
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On a macro level, it must free up its own internal market, boost household disposable income and address the causes of excess savings.
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For decades, companies in China have faced barriers that stifle cross-regional sales.
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China has a plan to create a unified national market that would break down these barriers and create a fair and transparent business environment.
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This plan was overshadowed by Beijing’s response to COVID.
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President Xi Jinping is aiming to make consumer spending the “main driving force” of the economy.
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COVID has hurt household income, and Beijing’s assault on the housing market has dented personal wealth.
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Xi has spoken about establishing a “long-term mechanism” to expand residents’ consumption.
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This would create an environment where people can consume with stable incomes and have a strong desire to spend.
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Beijing has proposed wide-ranging supply-side reforms in order to improve the Chinese economy and boost consumer income.
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Since 2015, part of the rural revitalization strategy has been to leverage the convenience of online commerce to meet consumer demand.
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This has resulted in a rapid growth in rural online sales, which has slowed since then but still remains faster than overall GDP growth.
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After achieving zero-COVID, Beijing now needs to speed up the transformation of the production and distribution side of its economy to reap further productivity gains. This will be a difficult feat as it involves creating a consolidated energy market, breaking down barriers between urban and rural labor markets, and dismantling barriers to entry.
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Xi Jinping is far from a classic economic liberal and is likely to gear policy to ensure that the state sector emerges as the winner of the market-opening process. Short term benefits of the market transformation are unlikely to be seen quickly over the next couple of years.
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To turn Chinese consumers into the country’s growth engine, structural changes to the demand side of the economy are needed in addition to an open national market. This is unlikely to replace the allure of government stimulus.
链接：China's growth revival will depend on internal market reforms - Nikkei Asia