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由于信贷紧缩引发违约,中国60家在大陆上市的房地产公司中,有60%预计去年会出现亏损。
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5%的公司实现了盈利,5%的公司认为净收入比前一年有所增长,而其余的公司表示利润下降。
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这些数字表明,在香港上市的大型企业面临着严峻的形势。
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行业的深度衰退和债务违约导致了房地产开发商的严重损失。
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去年实现盈利的大多数开发商依靠 "随机事件 "而不是业务改善,这并不具有可持续性。
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涨幅最大的是华夏幸福基业地产开发有限公司,该公司去年摇身一变,盈利高达16亿元。
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甚至一些最大的国有企业也警告说利润将大幅下滑,如保利发展控股集团有限公司和招商局蛇口工业区控股有限公司。
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国有企业盈利不如预期可能会拖累该行业的股票,而这些国有企业目前的估值可能是不合理的。
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分析师预测,由于盈利下调和利润警告,本月股票将温和回落。
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在香港上市的主要房地产企业定于3月31日前发布全年盈利。
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去年的业绩是一种 “沉没成本”,可能有助于评估开发商的 “底部”,销售驱动的股票反弹可能在未来几个月开始出现。
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60% of 60 mainland-listed property firms in China expected losses for last year, due to a credit crunch that triggered defaults.
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5% of firms turned profitable and 5% saw net income growing from the previous year, while the rest said profit fell.
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The figures suggest grim reading for larger players listed in Hong Kong.
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The deep sector downturn and debt defaults led to severe losses for real estate developers.
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The majority of developers that turned profitable last year relied on “random events” instead of business improvements, which isn’t sustainable.
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The biggest gainer was China Fortune Land Development Co., which swung to a profit of up to 1.6 billion yuan last year.
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Even some of the biggest state-owned players warned of a sharp profit slide, such as Poly Developments & Holdings Group Co. and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.
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The worse-than-expected earnings at state firms could be a drag on the sector stocks, and the current valuation of these SOE companies could be unreasonable.
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Analysts predict a mild stock retreat this month due to earnings downgrades and profit warnings.
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Major property players listed in Hong Kong are scheduled to post full-year earnings by March 31.
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Last year’s results are a “sunk cost” and could help to assess a “bottom” for developers, and a sales-driven stock rally may start to emerge in coming months.