Congressional Budget Office (6do encyclopedia)



The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government that provides nonpartisan budgetary and economic analysis to the United States Congress. The CBO was established by the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, which was signed into law by President Richard Nixon on July 12, 1974.

The CBO’s primary function is to assist Congress in making informed decisions about the federal budget and the economy. It provides cost estimates for proposed legislation, analyzes economic trends and issues, and produces various reports and publications on budgetary and economic issues.

The CBO is overseen by a Director who is appointed by the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate, with the approval of their respective chambers. The current Director is Phillip L. Swagel, who has held the position since June 2019.

History

Prior to the establishment of the CBO, Congress relied on the executive branch to provide budgetary and economic analysis. However, this arrangement was often criticized for its lack of independence and potential for partisan influence.

In response, Congress passed the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, which established the CBO as a nonpartisan agency that would provide objective analysis to Congress. The Act also created the Congressional budget process, which requires Congress to pass a budget resolution each year and established various budgetary procedures and rules.

Since its establishment, the CBO has played an important role in shaping the nation’s budgetary policies and economic outlook. It has provided cost estimates for major legislation, such as the Affordable Care Act and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and produced numerous reports and publications on topics ranging from the federal debt to healthcare reform.

Structure and Functions

The CBO is composed of three main divisions: the Budget Analysis Division, the Economic Analysis Division, and the Health and Human Resources Division.

The Budget Analysis Division is responsible for providing cost estimates for proposed legislation and analyzing the impact of budgetary policies. It also produces a number of publications, such as the “Budget and Economic Outlook” and the “Long-Term Budget Outlook,” which provide projections of the federal budget and the economy over a ten-year timeframe.

The Economic Analysis Division is responsible for analyzing economic trends and issues. It produces reports on topics such as the labor market, inflation, and economic growth.

The Health and Human Resources Division is responsible for analyzing healthcare and social welfare programs. It produces reports on topics such as Medicare, Medicaid, and the Affordable Care Act.

The CBO’s functions include:

  • Providing cost estimates for proposed legislation
  • Analyzing the impact of budgetary policies
  • Producing various reports and publications on budgetary and economic issues
  • Analyzing economic trends and issues
  • Analyzing healthcare and social welfare programs

The CBO also provides technical assistance to Congress on budgetary and economic matters. This can include providing advice on the design of proposed legislation or assisting in the development of budgetary procedures and rules.

Cost Estimates

One of the CBO’s most important functions is providing cost estimates for proposed legislation. Cost estimates are produced for bills being considered by Congress and for amendments to those bills.

When producing cost estimates, the CBO uses a combination of methods, including reviewing the text of the legislation, analyzing data on current spending levels and program participation, and modeling the behavior of individuals and institutions affected by the legislation.

The cost estimates produced by the CBO are widely used by members of Congress, the media, and other stakeholders to assess the potential impact of proposed legislation on the federal budget and the economy.

Budgetary and Economic Reports

One of the CBO’s most widely-read publications is the “Budget and Economic Outlook,” which provides projections of the federal budget and the economy over a ten-year timeframe. This report is updated annually and is considered a key resource for policymakers and analysts seeking to understand the nation’s fiscal and economic outlook.

In addition to the “Budget and Economic Outlook,” the CBO produces a number of other reports on topics ranging from healthcare reform to transportation funding. These reports are widely read and cited by policymakers, analysts, and the media.

Conclusion

The Congressional Budget Office plays an important role in shaping the nation’s budgetary policies and economic outlook. Its nonpartisan analysis and cost estimates are crucial for Congress when considering proposed legislation, and its reports and publications are widely used by policymakers, analysts, and the media.

Through its work, the CBO helps promote transparency and accountability in the legislative process. Its rigorous analysis and careful consideration of the potential impacts of proposed legislation ensure that Congress has the information needed to make informed decisions about the nation’s budget and economic policies.


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US fiscal alarm bells are drowning out a deeper problem

Financial Times

23-05-11 17:19


The US federal budget has worsened with underlying government revenues down 10% in the first seven months of fiscal year 2023 and spending up 12%, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The federal budget deficit is over three times larger year on year due to expenditure rises in almost all federal budget areas, the CBO warns. This weak performance reflects lower realised capital gains than expected, the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programme transformation and the possibility that the economic recovery was not quite as strong as initial statistics showed.

https://www.ft.com/content/8f671cc5-2e9e-4ad5-ab0a-61b8f4048619
The U.S. debt limit is again stoking fears across the globe. Why not just scrap the thing?

CBC

23-05-10 08:00


A number of Democratic lawmakers are backing legislation aimed at the repeal of the US national debt ceiling. Experts argue that the ceiling has become too politicised, and has started to act as a dangerous political bargaining chip, holding America's economy hostage in order to extract political demands. A number of alternatives to abolition have been touted, including allowing the president to raise the debt limit and a $1tn coin. However, experts have argued that these offshoots could be perceived as "Hail Mary passes of desperation" by market participants, thereby impairing the future credit of the US.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/debt-ceiling-us-scrap-1.6836090
How to Think About Green Industrial Policy

NY Times

23-05-09 18:28


The Inflation Reduction Act, which was signed into law by the Biden administration in August 2021, aims to combat climate change with industrial policy. Despite green subsidies being controversial, businesses are already benefiting from the act and the cost is expected to rise hundreds of billions of dollars higher than projected. Whilst other countries have taken issue with the protectionist nature of the legislation, with Europeans considering a Green Deal Industrial Plan, it seems the act will be a success in the government's fight against climate change. The Inflation Reduction Act is different from previous proposed industrial policies as it aims to limit rather than increase economic growth and reshape the economy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/09/opinion/climate-inflation-reduction-act-biden.html?searchResultPosition=1
US debt limit default could hit in early June to early August -think tank

Reuters

23-05-09 09:16


The US government faces default on payment obligations between early June and early August if the federal debt limit is not increased, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. The think tank had previously projected the "X-date" when payments cease could arise between summer and early fall this year, but it has lowered that estimate. A drop in tax revenues is contributing to the situation, which follows delays in tax payments related to severe storms in parts of Georgia, Alabama and California. The estimate aligns with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's warning of a possible June 1 default.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-debt-limit-default-could-hit-early-june-early-august-think-tank-2023-05-09/
Treasury Secretary Yellen calls CEOs and business leaders with warning on debt limit

CNN

23-05-09 04:58


US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is speaking to CEOs and business leaders to discuss the consequences of brinkmanship concerning the US debt ceiling, indicating a growing sense of urgency around the issue. Yellen recently told Congress that the US could default on its obligations from 1st June, and the Congressional Budget Office has backed up her claims. It estimates there is a “significantly greater risk” of the Treasury running out of funds in early June. That report was followed up by a White House analysis underscoring just how serious the consequences of a default could be, with more than 8 million jobs at risk of being lost and the stock market being cut in half. Yellen’s calls, as well as President Biden’s upcoming meeting with all four congressional leaders, come amid concerns that Republicans may drag the talks into the bottom of 2021, putting the country at risk of defaulting as early as next month. The White House has said it would not negotiate over the issue.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/09/economy/yellen-debt-calls-ceos-hnk-intl/index.html
Debt ceiling showdown: Biden and congressional leaders to meet as McCarthy pushes for faster deal

The Independent

23-05-16 04:03


US President Joe Biden will meet with congressional leaders at the White House in a high-level gathering on Tuesday to discuss the debt ceiling. The meeting will also include Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California, and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York. The president faces balancing the economic demands of a federal default with growing political friction against the backdrop of the G7 summit in Japan.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-biden-ap-kevin-mccarthy-white-house-congress-b2339512.html
Indian shares set to open higher on inflation boost, FII buying

Reuters

23-05-16 02:45


Indian shares are predicted to open higher on Tuesday, thanks to decreasing domestic inflation and increasing foreign institutional buying in equities. The Nifty 50 index closed at a near-five month high yesterday due to positive earnings and favourable inflation data. Foreign institutional investors extended their buying streak for the thirteenth session on Monday. The Wall Street equities also rose ahead of talks between the US President and House Republicans regarding raising the debt ceiling.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-shares-set-open-higher-inflation-boost-fii-buying-2023-05-16/
U.S. on track for June 1 default without debt ceiling hike, Treasury says

Japan Times

23-05-16 01:46


The US treasury department has said it will only be able to pay the US government’s bills until June 1 without a debt limit increase. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has said the US runs a “significant risk” of defaulting on payment obligations within the first two weeks of June if the debt ceiling is not raised. To counter the crisis, analysts suggest that the Treasury could last as long as August without a default if it can access June 15 quarterly tax payments and new borrowing measures that become available June 30.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/05/16/business/us-on-track-for-june-default/
And the president most to blame for the national debt problem is …

Washington Post

23-05-16 07:00


US President Joe Biden has blamed his predecessor Donald Trump for a 40% increase in the national debt during his administration. The national debt totaled nearly $20tn when Trump took office in 2017, and was more than $27.8tn when he left. Analysts say that while numbers can be misleading, Trump can be held partly responsible since $4.3tn of the increase came in the last 10 months of his presidency, when massive government spending was necessary to cope with the pandemic’s economic impact. Charles Blahous, an economist who formerly advised President George W. Bush, has determined that two-thirds of the nation’s long-term fiscal imbalance is actually due to policy choices more than 50 years old.

Biden has criticized the tax cut passed in 2017 and signed into law by Trump as being skewed towards the wealthy and large corporations. While the cut has not yet reduced revenue by $2tn, as claimed by Biden, Trump’s elimination of two streams of revenue introduced by Obama to finance the Affordable Care Act will result in 7.6% of America’s future fiscal imbalance, according to Blahous. In contrast, Blahous cites Lyndon B. Johnson as the president most responsible for his share of the fiscal gap (29.7%) due to his enactment of Medicare and Medicaid in the mid-1960s.

Blahous suggests that Congress struggles to discern the effects of individual policies on the economy over a 50-year period, making the evaluation of the effectiveness of policies difficult. Social programs such as Social Security and Medicare are popular and have helped reduce poverty among the elderly, but their future costs could be unsustainable without new congressional legislation. On this subject, Biden has noted the importance of investing in social programs, particularly in low-income children, since such policies have been shown to be cost-effective in the long run.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/05/16/president-most-blame-spiraling-national-debt-is/

Biden and congressional leaders to meet as McCarthy pushes for faster deal on debt ceiling

The Globe and Mail

23-05-16 11:20


US President Joe Biden is set to discuss the debt ceiling with congressional leaders at the White House as early outlines of a possible deal emerge. The Tuesday meeting comes as the US Treasury prepares to run out of cash to pay bills as early as June 1, heightening the need for a budget agreement between Democrats and Republicans. Among the ideas being discussed is clawing back some $30bn in unused COVID-19 funds and tweaking work requirements for recipients of government aid. White House and congressional staff have held days of closed-doors discussions to try to thrash out the agreement.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-biden-and-congressional-leaders-to-meet-as-mccarthy-pushes-for-faster/
The U.S. needs higher taxes. Hear me out

The Globe and Mail

23-05-16 09:30


The looming debt-ceiling crisis in the US has been labelled a "manufactured crisis" by Eric Reguly in The Globe & Mail. The Republican party is refusing to raise the government's borrowing limit without a promise of big spending cuts. If the debt is defaulted upon, Reguly warns of its side effects: "blowing up the banking system and paralysing the global economy". Despite US President Donald Trump's endorsement of the move, it is unlikely to cause a crisis as it has in Clinton's time, as Republicans had to compromise.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-us-taxes-debt-ceiling-crisis/
Biden criticised for planning to attend G7 while debt ceiling is unresolved

South China Morning Post

23-05-16 16:36


The US government's showdown with Republicans over the country's debt ceiling threatens the global economy and raises concerns among policymakers over the US' efforts to counter China. Republicans are seeking spending cuts over a decade whereas Democrats prefer smaller spending cuts in defense and social programs over a shorter period. Senior White House economics adviser Shalanda Young said the debt ceiling situation was a "test of what works in this world" and has raised concerns that the US would default on its US$31.4tn borrowing limit.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3220792/us-house-speaker-criticises-bidens-plan-attend-g7-summit-while-debt-ceiling-issue-unresolved
Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Veronique de Rugy

NY Times

23-05-16 13:55


The US federal government has once again hit its debt ceiling, leading to a renewal of the high-stakes politicking approach to finance by both parties that downgrades the country's credit and threatens the perceived reliability of US Treasury bonds in the global market. The manoeuvre is often used opportunistically by opponents of the party in power, while Republicans have also begun to demand policy concessions in exchange for raising the ceiling. Economist Veronique de Rugy argues there is a beneficial side to the debt ceiling, suggesting in the recent Ezra Klein podcast that it can be used for deficit reduction and as a negotiating window. However, the current situation is creating uncertainty in the market and putting investment on hold at a particularly fragile moment as Covid-19 lockdowns ease in the US.

Raising the debt ceiling merely allows the government to spend money that it has already approved spending. Opponents of the ceiling argue the subsequent requirement for congressional approval rewards obstructionism rather than meaningful, transparent economic discussion. They argue that it puts the US’s savings into the pockets of those who would typically lend to the country, notably China, Japan and some European banks, to whose benefit it is to accumulate holdings of US Treasury bonds.

The risk in the ceaseless debt-ceiling debate, in which so much is predetermined by fixed standing positions, is that long-standing assumptions about the global financial system are at risk of being overlooked or deliberately ignored. Currently the stalemate is in a stalemate, as it is not yet clear what domestic policy Republican lawmakers will use the debt-ceiling impasse to attempt to drive through.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/16/podcasts/ezra-klein-podcast-transcript-veronique-derugy.html?searchResultPosition=3

What to expect as US nears ‘unthinkable’ debt default

Financial Times

23-05-16 18:19


The US government is at risk of running out of cash in a matter of weeks, with officials warning that it may default on its bonds if a political dispute in Washington over raising the debt ceiling is not settled. While some Republicans in Congress have explored the possibility of the Treasury prioritising bond payments if a default is close, this has been discouraged by treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, who has warned that delay in making other payments would constitute a “default by another name”. A short-lived default could result in a 0.6% decline in GDP and 500,000 lost jobs. The [US] credit score would be trashed, leading to higher borrowing costs for decades, according to experts. For those buying protection via credit default swaps, an enormous payout could await as US bonds have faced a steep rise in interest rates since early 2022, leading to the value of swaps rising to record highs.

https://www.ft.com/content/ce2acb70-ccd3-4c1e-9f2a-a37319cf9d08
Biden to cut back Asia tour due to US debt crisis

Deutsche Welle

23-05-16 22:29


President Joe Biden cancelled his upcoming visit to Papua New Guinea and Australia to avert a potentially catastrophic debt default. Biden was due to visit the Quad leaders in Sydney on May 24, bringing together the United States, Australia, Japan, and India. The United States could begin defaulting on its debts "potentially as early as June 1," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday, while nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has forecast June 15.

https://www.dw.com/en/biden-to-cut-back-asia-tour-due-to-us-debt-crisis/a-65650631
IRS sets its sights on tax avoidance by the super-rich and corporations

Financial Times

23-05-17 04:23


Under President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is set to receive $80bn over the next 10 years, a move that should aid the agency in auditing high-income taxpayers and securing more tax income for the government. The IRS recently posted new guidelines and has hired a new commissioner, Danny Werfel, who has said a primary objective is to acquire expertise such as accountants and lawyers needed to pursue high-wealth individuals and large corporations that are not paying their taxes. The overhaul will be done in stages over several years.

https://www.ft.com/content/d354d6fe-175f-4135-9e85-5b115be010e0
Debt ceiling threat: Time to take this political football off the field

CNN

23-05-17 16:31


The debt ceiling debate in Washington should be abandoned to save US living standards, family budgets, and global financial stability, according to economics experts. Theoretically, the debt ceiling should work as a fiscal restraint during the budgeting process. But after near meltdowns in 2011, 2013 and recently, economists argue it is time to take the political football off of the field. The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon said last week that he would be in favour of getting rid of the debt ceiling. The Fed's former vice-chairman, Roger Ferguson, said the debt ceiling is an antiquated mechanism that should be scrapped.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/17/economy/debt-ceiling-political-football/index.html
Biden’s past support of work requirements in safety net programs in the spotlight

CNN

23-05-17 14:29


As discussions centre on meeting the borrowing cap in the US, Joe Biden's past support of work requirements for safety net programs is worrying his fellow Democrats and proving to be a point of optimism for Republicans. The negotiations have recognised some potential areas of agreement, including altering the permitting processes, cutting spending and rescinding unspent Covid relief funds. However, work requirements have become a line in the sand. In 1996, Biden was one of 78 senators to support the welfare reform package, which replaced the nation's main welfare program and created Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, known as TANF, which requires states to ensure a share of recipients participate in work-related activities.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/17/politics/work-requirements-biden-debt-ceiling/index.html
New work requirements for federal aid? GOP pushes proposals in debt talks

The Independent

23-05-17 20:57


Negotiations over raising the US debt ceiling have been held up by the introduction of work requirements for federal aid. The bill, passed by the House in April, would bring in new work requirements for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, and Medicaid assistance for adults without dependents. Legislators are now debating the proposal, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy insisting that the work requirements be part of negotiations with Joe Biden over raising the debt limit to avoid a national default. While the President has signalled his openness to a possible compromise, many in his party are concerned over the harm the changes could have to vulnerable Americans. Anti-hunger groups have highlighted that new work requirements could cause needy families to lose out on benefits, without significantly reducing the government's spending in these areas, with over 1 million older adults at risk of losing their food assistance.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-biden-ap-kevin-mccarthy-medicaid-gop-b2340938.html