US Economy (6do encyclopedia)



The US economy, also known as the American economy, is one of the largest and most influential economies in the world. It comprises a highly diversified mix of industries, from finance and healthcare to manufacturing and technology. As a result, the country has a significant impact on global economic trends and activity.

The US economy is an example of a capitalist economy, meaning that private actors own and operate businesses with a profit motive. The US government plays a role in regulating certain aspects of the economy, such as minimum wage laws and safety standards, but it generally operates on a market-driven basis.

The history of the US economy is complex and varied, with different periods of boom and bust. However, the country has consistently been among the top economic powers in the world. From the late 1800s to the early 1900s, the US experienced a period of rapid industrialization, with major advances in manufacturing and transportation infrastructure. This period was marked by the rise of large corporations and the emergence of industrial leaders such as Andrew Carnegie and John D. Rockefeller.

The economy underwent a major shift during the Great Depression of the 1930s, as high levels of unemployment and widespread financial instability led to a greater role for the government in regulating and stabilizing the economy. This era saw the creation of programs such as Social Security and the New Deal, which aimed to provide relief and support to struggling citizens.

In the years following World War II, the US experienced a period of sustained economic growth, known as the “postwar boom.” This was fueled by increased consumer spending, advancements in technology, and expansion into new industries such as aviation and space exploration. The 1950s and 1960s were also marked by the rise of the middle class and a greater emphasis on consumer culture.

However, the US economy has also experienced significant challenges over the past few decades. The 1970s and 1980s saw a period of stagflation, with slow growth and high inflation rates. This was followed by the economic recession of the early 1990s, which was driven by the collapse of the savings and loans industry and the bursting of the housing bubble. The most recent economic crisis came in 2008, with the collapse of the housing market and a subsequent financial crisis that caused widespread economic instability.

Despite these challenges, the US economy remains among the strongest in the world. Its gross domestic product (GDP) is consistently ranked as one of the highest in the world, and the country is home to some of the largest and most profitable corporations in the world.

One of the driving forces behind the US economy is the service sector, which makes up a significant portion of the country’s economic activity. This includes industries such as finance, healthcare, education, and professional services. Manufacturing also remains an important part of the US economy, despite facing challenges such as competition from low-cost labor markets overseas. Major US industries include aerospace, technology, automotive, and pharmaceuticals.

Another key factor in the US economy is its trade relationships with other countries. The US is a major trading partner with many countries, including Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, and the European Union. Trade agreements, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), have been hotly debated in recent years, as some argue that they lead to job losses and other economic challenges.

The US government plays a significant role in shaping the economy through its fiscal and monetary policies. Fiscal policies include taxation, spending, and regulation, while monetary policies focus on the regulation of interest rates and the money supply. The Federal Reserve System, commonly known as the Fed, is the central banking system of the US and plays a key role in these policies.

In recent years, the US economy has faced several challenges, including growing income inequality, rising healthcare costs, and declining social mobility. These issues have led to unrest and protests across the country, with many calling for changes to economic policies and greater economic opportunities for all.

Overall, the US economy is a dynamic and complex system that has faced both triumphs and setbacks throughout its history. While it remains one of the most powerful economies in the world, it also faces ongoing challenges related to inequality, trade, and other economic issues.


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US executives call for immigration reform to staff manufacturing boom

Financial Times

23-05-16 04:20


Executives from clean energy and semiconductor firms have urged the Biden administration to loosen immigration rules in the US to enable a rapid influx of foreign labour. More than 80 new projects were announced in the US last year, and Congress also passed hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies to re-shore manufacturing jobs lost to Asia. However, companies have encountered labour shortages, leading them to call for reform to allow more workers back into the US. Analysts have warned of a shortage of highly skilled tradepersons and technicians by the end of the decade in the US.

https://www.ft.com/content/36998a70-1fea-4607-b79e-ca4140e6583b
The consumer wobbles, a bit

Financial Times

23-05-16 06:19


US consumer spending fell by 1.2% YoY in April, according to data released by Bank of America. The decline, the first since February of this year, could suggest the “final, stubborn economic shoe” is dropping, said Unhedged, but analysts said it was important to distinguish a slowdown from wider stress. "Lower-income households continue to outperform higher-income households in terms of YoY spending growth" a BofA note said. Home Depot, Target and Walmart are among the retailers reporting this week. Inflation-beset consumers had thus far refused to cut back spending, but some analysts argued that a change could be on the way.

Anaemic gains in private-label groceries also suggested consumers were not pushing back hard against higher prices from suppliers, said retail analyst Rahul Sharma. Sharma said previous patterns of lower spending around discretionary goods during times of economic downturn were not currently in evidence in the US, but dramatic fluctuations in supply chains and pricing were still possible. Meanwhile, Walmart reported a reduction in price increase requests from suppliers in recent weeks but a continuing shift in sales from discretionary goods to groceries.

Although Uber confirmed that insurance claims made up the largest component of its cost of revenues in most markets, Unhedged readers argued the deeper question was not the costs themselves but the supply and demand dynamics that set the returns, after costs, of Uber versus Airbnb. They made the point that a car ride was a commodity product whose main feature in the eyes of customers was price, whereas houses and apartments had crucial variable features. Airbnb set prices, while Uber customers would pay more for special occasions or geographies where elasticities of preference for price were low.


https://www.ft.com/content/98e93810-3329-486d-ad88-d8bb53ecb347

Biden Vetoes Legislation That Would Reinstate Tariffs on Some Solar Panels

NY Times

23-05-16 19:55


President Biden vetoed legislation on Tuesday that would have reinstated tariffs on solar panels from Chinese companies in Southeast Asia that had been found to be imported into the United States in violation of trade rules. The Senate narrowly passed the resolution this month, with several key Democrats supporting the measure, in a sharp rebuke to Mr. Biden. The administration, however, has argued that buying solar panels from China in the short term is necessary to make good on the president’s efforts to mitigate climate change.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/16/us/politics/biden-solar-tariffs-veto.html?searchResultPosition=3
US executives call on Washington to avert ‘devastating’ debt default

Financial Times

23-05-16 18:19


Over 140 US business leaders have urged President Biden and other congressional leaders to raise the debt ceiling and avoid what they say would be a “potentially disastrous scenario” for the economy. In an open letter from executives including those from Pfizer, Goldman Sachs and KKR on Tuesday, the signatories warned that failure to raise the debt ceiling could have “disastrous consequences”. They added: “Absent a resolution, the government is likely to run out of money as soon as June 1. Action to end the pending debt crisis is necessary now.”

https://www.ft.com/content/979df6c0-f91f-4bff-b106-f049ab8ffdc7
What to expect as US nears ‘unthinkable’ debt default

Financial Times

23-05-16 18:19


The US government is at risk of running out of cash in a matter of weeks, with officials warning that it may default on its bonds if a political dispute in Washington over raising the debt ceiling is not settled. While some Republicans in Congress have explored the possibility of the Treasury prioritising bond payments if a default is close, this has been discouraged by treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, who has warned that delay in making other payments would constitute a “default by another name”. A short-lived default could result in a 0.6% decline in GDP and 500,000 lost jobs. The [US] credit score would be trashed, leading to higher borrowing costs for decades, according to experts. For those buying protection via credit default swaps, an enormous payout could await as US bonds have faced a steep rise in interest rates since early 2022, leading to the value of swaps rising to record highs.

https://www.ft.com/content/ce2acb70-ccd3-4c1e-9f2a-a37319cf9d08
European stock markets dip on US debt ceiling concerns

Financial Times

23-05-17 08:18


European stocks fell on Wednesday, with investors spooked by policymakers in Washington failing to agree on a deal to increase the US’ spending limit. US futures were holding gains, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts tracking up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively prior to the New York open. However, Jefferies’ Mohit Kumar warned that markets will start to price in debt ceiling concerns toward mid-June. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned the US could default on its debt as early as next month if lawmakers fail to reach a compromise. The dollar index was up 0.3% on Tuesday’s close and bond yields edged higher as uncertainty grew over the US situation.

https://www.ft.com/content/2aeb11f6-483d-46cc-ad37-cb8549c318f8
Biden ‘confident’ deal can be reached with Republicans on debt ceiling

Financial Times

23-05-17 17:19


US President Joe Biden believes that a potential US debt default can be avoided by making a deal with Congress. Biden shared that his recent meeting with Kevin McCarthy, Republican Speaker, was “civil and respectful". He said that all parties understood the “consequences of the failure to pay our bills”. Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary, has already warned that a default could happen as early as 1 June if Congress did not take any action to increase the borrowing limit. The fiscal stand-off had become a critical threat to the global economy and finance systems. Biden shortened his international trip to Japan to work on the debt limit negotiations in Washington. The White House and Republicans in Congress are discussing a fiscal deal with limits to discretionary spending over the next several years. Republicans are putting pressure on adding new work requirements for the government's large anti-poverty schemes.

https://www.ft.com/content/80539c97-e86c-4a46-8151-efc4f7a600c0
Biden Says He Is Confident America Will Not Default on Its Debts

NY Times

23-05-17 16:33


US President Joe Biden has cut his diplomatic visit to Asia short to participate in final negotiations over America's debt ceiling. His comments came ahead of meetings between Steve Ricchetti, a senior adviser to the president, and Shalanda Young, Director of the Office of Management and Budget with negotiators representing congressional Republicans. The United States is projected to run out of money to pay its bills by June 1 if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit, potentially causing a recession. The government reached the $31.4tn debt limit on Jan. 19.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/us/politics/biden-debt-limit-default.html?searchResultPosition=1
Why investors are going gaga for gold

Financial Times

23-05-18 17:19


Gold is emerging as the top investment choice for professionals and retail investors as they consider what to do in the event of a US default. Analysts at RBC Capital have indicated that “gold looks like one of the few likely candidates that would bear the burden of resulting market flows from default anxiety.” Data from the World Gold Council shows that central bank purchases of gold hit a record high in Q1 2022, while LBMA-accredited precious metals refiners have reported seeing far higher volumes than usual of large bars. Other investments suggested include the yen, the Swiss franc, and high-quality international equities.

https://www.ft.com/content/85eaeea3-2acf-4118-9bd3-3f72990185a3
Could a US debt default unleash global chaos?

BBC

23-05-18 22:57


If the US fails to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, financial markets will experience a global "black swan" event that would make the 2008 crisis look insignificant, with it causing a downturn that would affect the whole of the UK, according to Simon French, chief economist at investment bank Panmure Gordon. It would also lead to a sharp drop in the value of the dollar, which would make food and fuel more expensive and raise the cost of living for millions of consumers, as well as make British mortgages more expensive and increase unemployment.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65633280
The labour market’s little cracks

Financial Times

23-05-19 06:18


The rise in initial unemployment claims has been core to the argument that the labour market is about to collapse. However, the effects of fraud in Massachusetts may have caused a sharp uptick in initial jobless claims that have been generating unneeded consternation. Labour-market data tends to break down in a predictable order towards the end of a cycle. Claims, quits, and job openings first, followed by wages and unemployment. The quits rate has fallen further but appears more like normalisation. Unemployment, at 3.4%, has not moved, while wage growth is grinding down ever so slowly. The consensus call is for an imminent collapse in the labor market. But the data indicate this is not happening.

While the consumer is not retrenching per se, they are noticeably cautious and spending more on grocery basics having splurged on big-ticket items during the pandemic. Walmart is not absorbing prices in its margin, indicating flat-to-down sales in real terms and suggesting a consumer slowdown. The effects of fraud in Massachusetts have been causing sharp upticks in initial jobless claims, generating unneeded consternation. However, it appears that the labor market is not cracking but taking its sweet time. Consensus economic gloom depends on the labor market deteriorating soon.


https://www.ft.com/content/292e4ba2-fed1-455e-9c92-7c74bd454561

Powell says rates ‘may not need to rise as much’ due to bank stress

Financial Times

23-05-19 17:19


The recent bank failures, including that of Silicon Valley Bank, may limit how much further the Federal Reserve will need to raise its benchmark interest rate, according to the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell. The credit crunch resulting from the bank failures is contributing to tighter credit conditions, economic growth, hiring and inflation, he warned. Powell said that, due to this, policymakers may need to forgo further tightening. He added that the extent of the impact of these credit conditions is "highly uncertain". His comments were made as Fed policymakers debate whether to press ahead with an 11th straight rate rise next month or pause tightening. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its benchmark policy rate by more than 5 percentage points to a target range of 5%-5.25%; this rise has been viewed by Powell as notable. However, he advised there was "uncertainty about lagged effects" of tightening already applied, "about the extent of credit tightening from these banking stresses", and "about their effects on growth".

https://www.ft.com/content/8009c0f9-9953-4a5b-b476-fa7a55c9a1cb
Biden cuts short G7 dinner with Sunak to tackle US debt ceiling crisis

Telegraph

23-05-19 16:34


US President Joe Biden left a working dinner with G7 leaders in Japan early to receive an update on debt ceiling negotiations from his team in Washington. The US risks defaulting on its debts if the ceiling is not raised by 1 June. The issue has caused a standoff between Republicans and Democrats, with a group of senators led by Bernie Sanders urging the President to invoke the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned of the catastrophic consequences of a default, while negotiators are thrashing out terms of the deal between the parties.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/19/biden-cancels-g7-dinner-sunak-debt-ceiling-crisis/
The dollars are not fragile

Financial Times

23-05-19 19:19


The US government's continued borrowing has led to concerns that the dollar might be at risk, but there is no currency alternative, according to an opinion piece in the FT. Bank deposits are backed by the country's explicit guarantee of $250,000 of deposits from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, while dollar-denominated deposits at foreign banks are almost explicitly guaranteed by the Federal Reserve through agreements to swap currencies with foreign central banks in a crisis. Financial markets function based on treasuries, but sovereign debt has remained the bedrock of the global financial system since 1694, and no other country has the ability to produce sovereign debt assets anywhere close to the US.

https://www.ft.com/content/a5d95a2d-c7c1-4bed-9494-a563c368ac60
The Week in Business: An Attempt to Ban TikTok

NY Times

23-05-21 11:00


Governor Greg Gianforte of Montana has signed a bill banning TikTok within the state from January, targeting the app by restricting access in mobile app stores such as the Apple Store and Google Play. TikTok and the stores themselves face fines if they continue to offer access after 1 January. The Chinese-owned video-sharing app is already facing legal challenge with some of its users filing a lawsuit claiming that the ban violates their First Amendment rights. If successful, similar challenges could follow in other states that have already considered restrictions on TikTok.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/21/business/the-week-in-business-ban-tiktok.html?searchResultPosition=1
A US foreign policy for the middle class

Financial Times

23-05-22 04:20


The Biden administration used the G7 summit in Japan to push the details of a US-led industrial policy around climate, particularly in the global south. This is a new approach, as the traditional Washington consensus model has focused on unfettered growth via deregulation and trade liberalisation. The administration aims to bring a greater coalition of nations into a new economic order, prioritising sustainability and equitable GDP growth, value incentive over capital and limit dangerous concentrations of power in any nation or company. This message was well received by the G7 nations and many others.

https://www.ft.com/content/9e2e0cb5-5edb-4d4e-bbdb-da1b809b9bc7
Americans’ financial health hit by higher inflation, Fed survey shows

Financial Times

23-05-22 17:19


US financial health has deteriorated sharply due to elevated inflation, with only 73% of adults now reporting that they are "doing at least OK", according to a survey by the Federal Reserve. This is a 5% decline from the previous year, one of the lowest readings since 2016 and nearly a third of respondents said they were "finding it difficult to get by". More than a third said they were worse off financially compared with a year earlier and price pressures were the main culprit behind the decline. The Fed is now considering whether to forgo further tightening at the next policy meeting in mid-June.

https://www.ft.com/content/ec0da083-406f-4727-ac19-b397369326d0
Working From Home and Realizing What Matters

NY Times Opinion

23-05-22 23:00


The US economy’s remarkable recovery from the Covid recession has included a significant reduction in commuting time, leading to significant economic benefits that will persist even after the pandemic ends, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman. The gains from reduced commutes are probably worth up to several percentage points of national income, he wrote in a New York Times op-ed. The shift to remote work also shows that taking advantage of technology requires major changes in business operations, and economic numbers like GDP can be misleading indicators of what matters most in life.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/22/opinion/work-from-home-commuiting-gdp.html