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中国民政部通常在三个月内发布结婚、离婚和火化的季度数据。然而，截至周三，他们还没有公布2022年10-12月的数据。总部设在东京的伊藤忠研究所的Yoshino Tamai认为，中国在12月结束了零COVID限制，导致新案件激增，这可能在这一延迟中起到了作用。该部以前曾推迟过此类数据的发布，包括在大流行初期的2020年1-3月。
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根据政府数据，12月8日至1月12日期间，约有6万人在中国医疗机构死于与COVID有关的原因。英国研究公司Airfinity估计，包括在家里的死亡在内，总死亡人数超过34万。12月底左右，死亡人数的激增使中国的火葬场不堪重负，尽管其斗争的全部程度仍不清楚。除了全国性的统计之外，民政部通常还公布31个省、市和自治区的数据。然而，自2022年4月至6月，上海市被封锁以来，他们就没有发布过此类细分数据。
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第一生命研究所的首席经济学家Toru Nishihama认为，数据发布的延迟 “可能会刺激人们对数据有多糟糕的猜测”。延迟的统计数据也会推迟政策的调整，比如结婚和离婚数据，这在规划提升出生率的措施时非常重要。虽然中国的结婚人数在2022年可能连续第九年下降，但如果没有准确的数据，很难确定过去政策的有效性。
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The Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs typically releases quarterly data on marriages, divorces and cremations within three months. However, as of Wednesday, they had not published figures for October-December of 2022. Yoshino Tamai of the Tokyo-based Itochu Research Institute believes the end to China’s zero-COVID restrictions in December, which led to a surge in new cases, likely played a role in this delay. The ministry has pushed back the release of such data before, including for January-March 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic.
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Around 60,000 people died of COVID-related causes in Chinese medical facilities between Dec. 8 and Jan. 12, according to government data. British research company Airfinity estimated that total deaths, including those at home, topped 340,000. The surge in deaths overwhelmed China’s crematoriums around the end of December, though the full extent of their struggles remains unclear. In addition to the national tally, the Ministry of Civil Affairs typically also publishes data from 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. However, they have not released such breakdowns since April-June of 2022, when the city of Shanghai was placed under lockdown.
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Toru Nishihama, chief economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, believes the delay in data release “could spur speculation about just how bad the data was.” Delayed statistics will also delay adjustments in policy, such as marriage and divorce data which are important when planning measures to lift birth rates. While the number of marriages in China likely fell for the ninth straight year in 2022, it is difficult to determine the effectiveness of past policies without accurate data.