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美国和中国之间的紧张关系正在上升，北京正在抵制建立新的沟通渠道。这是由于美国对台湾的支持越来越多，北京声称台湾是中国的一部分。担心台湾周围的重兵驻扎可能造成误伤，是华盛顿希望与北京建立更好的沟通渠道的一个主要原因。
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随着美国和中国的军用飞机和海军舰艇在有争议的天空和水域中就近行动，情况的严重性也在增加。拜登政府并不寻求与中国发生美国与苏联之间的那种对抗，在稳定的美中关系中拥有利益的商业主管过去曾帮助缓和两国之间的紧张关系。美国官员正在公开谈论从以前的时代中吸取经验，建立热线电话。
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到目前为止，这些努力还没有奏效，任何一方的军事误判蔓延到冲突的风险仍然存在。随着被大流行病切断的商业联系慢慢重新建立起来，改善沟通的前景正在上升，尽管仍不确定这是否足以避免危机。
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中国和美国已经有一些连接双方领导人的热线电话，包括2008年建立的军事联系。一个关键问题是，中国有时在危机时刻拒绝使用这条热线，使其成为管理紧张局势的不可靠的工具。此外，与好莱坞电影中的红色电话不同，通过军事热线的会议可能需要几天甚至更长时间来安排。中国前高级外交官徐步表示，如果华盛顿违反了北京最敏感的关切领域，如对台湾的 "一个中国 "政策，那么对改善沟通的呼吁就会变得空洞。
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美国在1970年代同意切断与台北政府的正式关系。拜登总统多次表示，如果中国入侵，美国军队将保卫台湾，白宫也坚持认为美国的政策没有改变。中国外交部指责美国给两国军队之间的关系带来了麻烦。美国国防部发言人说，令人不安的是，中国 “似乎将我们改善沟通的外联活动视为双边关系中的一个筹码”。
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第一条连接美国和苏联领导人的热线是在1963年建立的。美国印太司令部负责人约翰-阿基里诺上将说，他担心无法迅速联系到中国军方的同行。一些专家认为，来自中国的缄默是为了在美国官员心中埋下疑虑，中国的政治制度是与美国建立可靠热线的主要障碍。
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2008年的军方对军方热线，被称为国防电话连线，旨在连接两国的最高国防官员，由一个被称为中南海电信局的共产党办公室负责。2020年底，美国情报部门了解到，北京担心美国可能会在南中国海对中国发动攻击。
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2019年成为参谋长联席会议主席的马克-米利将军试图向中国保证，美国没有计划进行攻击。2020年10月，米利将军不得不通过美国驻北京大使馆来联系他的中国同行，因为他没有其他与解放军沟通的手段。
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国防部长马克-埃斯珀指示米利将军与他的中国同行联系，当他们在八天后终于通话时，米利将军试图安抚他认为是错误的中国恐惧。他的信息是一致的：保持冷静、稳定和缓和，而且美国不会攻击他们。这最终有助于消除北京的担忧。
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Tensions are rising between the U.S. and China, and Beijing is resisting the establishment of new communication channels. This is due to the U.S.’s increasing support for Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of China. Concern that a heavy military presence around Taiwan could cause a mishap is a major reason why Washington wants better communication lines with Beijing.
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The seriousness of the situation has grown as American and Chinese military jets and naval craft operate in proximity in contested skies and waters. The Biden administration is not seeking the sort of confrontation with China that the U.S. had with the Soviet Union, and business executives with interests in stable U.S.-China ties have helped to smooth tensions between the countries in the past. U.S. officials are talking openly about taking a page from the previous era and establishing hotlines.
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So far these efforts have not worked, and the risk of a miscalculation by either side’s military spilling into conflict remains. With business connections severed by the pandemic slowly being re-established, prospects for improved communication are rising, though it is still uncertain if this will be enough to avoid a crisis.
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China and the U.S. already have some hotlines that connect their leaders, including a military link established in 2008. A key problem is that China sometimes refuses to use this hotline in moments of crisis, rendering it an unreliable tool to manage tensions. In addition, unlike with red phones in Hollywood movies, meetings through the military hotline can take days or more to set up. Calls for better communication ring hollow if Washington violates Beijing’s most sensitive areas of concern such as the “One China” policy on Taiwan, according to Xu Bu, a former senior Chinese diplomat.
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The U.S. agreed to sever formal ties with the government in Taipei in 1970s. President Biden has repeatedly said the U.S. military would defend Taiwan if China invaded and the White House has insisted U.S. policy hasn’t changed. China’s Foreign Ministry blamed the U.S. for troubled relations between the countries’ militaries. A U.S. Defense Department spokesman said it was troubling that China “appears to view our outreach for improved communication as a point of leverage in the bilateral relationship.”
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The first hotline linking the leaders of the U.S. and the Soviet Union was established in 1963. Adm. John Aquilino, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said he worries about not being able to reach his counterparts in the Chinese military quickly. Reticence from China is aimed to sow doubts in the minds of U.S. officials and China’s political system is a major obstacle to building reliable hotlines with the U.S. according to some experts.
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The 2008 military to military hotline, known as the Defense Telephone Link, is intended to connect the countries’ top defense officials, and is run by a Communist Party office known as the Zhongnanhai Telecommunications Directorate. In late 2020, US intelligence learned that Beijing was concerned that the US might launch an attack against China in the South China Sea.
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Gen. Mark Milley, who became chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 2019, sought to assure China that no attack by the US was planned. In October 2020, Gen. Milley had to work through the US Embassy in Beijing to reach his Chinese counterpart, as he had no other means of communicating with the PLA.
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Defense Secretary Mark Esper instructed Gen. Milley to contact his Chinese counterpart, and when they finally spoke eight days later, Gen. Milley sought to assuage what he saw as misplaced Chinese fears. His message was consistent: stay calm, steady, and de-escalate, and that the US was not going to attack them. This ultimately helped draw down Beijing’s concerns.