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战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）创建了一个数据库，其中包括200份中国演讲、学术论文和政府文件的译文，以便更好地了解北京的野心和恐惧。该项目名为 “解读：中国”，是以美国在冷战期间研究苏联的方法为模式。
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周一，CSIS主持了一个国防专家小组，要求他们阅读87页的中国评论译文。小组成员被这些分析的复杂性和细微差别所震惊，他们注意到有一篇论文正确地理解了美国在建立威慑力方面的行动是防御性的。
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该项目正在改变分析家们讨论中国的方式，并为理解北京的动机提供一个框架。该数据库是深入了解中国领导人及其对美国和世界的态度的宝贵资源。
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CSIS欧洲、俄罗斯和欧亚项目的访问学者Sean Monaghan发现中国的政策文件 “令人震惊”。
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他打了个比方，说本以为文件中体现的是孙子，但却得到了托马斯-谢林和格伦-斯奈德，后两者是美国博弈论和政治学家。
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而所有的中国参考文献都指向了对威慑、强制和胁迫含义的理解。
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中国问题专家、德国马歇尔基金印度-太平洋项目总经理邦尼-格拉瑟怀疑中国国家主席习近平是否阅读过此类政策文件。
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她说，这些文件可能会被整个系统的其他人阅读。
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这样就能更准确地了解中国领导层的共同观点，以及哪些观点被提出。
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格拉瑟提供了 "十月惊奇 "的例子，当时马克-米利将军打电话给中国的同行李作成将军，向他保证美国没有准备在南海进行打击。
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这使美国有机会回到中国，澄清对美国政策的任何误解。
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最近的文章表明，中国人认为美国正在准备发动攻击。这导致华盛顿对中国的立场更加强硬，两党成员都在描述中国所构成的威胁。法里德-扎卡里亚指出，众议院美国和中国共产党战略竞争特别委员会2月28日的听证会就像被送回了1950年代。
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威慑问题专家迈克尔-格拉瑟说，阅读这类文章可以让我们了解到中国人可能误读美国意图的地方，并采取行动避免升级的螺旋。专门委员会的共和党主席迈克-加拉格尔说，中国共产党关注的是一个挤满了 "技术-极权主义监视国家 "的世界，在那里，人权从属于党。
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民主党排名委员Raja Krishnamoorthi说，两党都低估了中共，认为贸易和投资会带来民主。然而，兰德公司高级政治学家迈克尔-马扎尔说，美国陷入了安全困境，除了加强和发展与台湾的军事关系外，任何行动都被视为软弱无力。这种态势破坏了和平的基础，使其在政治上难以摆脱。
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The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has created a database of 200 translations of Chinese speeches, academic papers, and government documents in order to gain a better understanding of Beijing’s ambitions and fears. The project, called “Interpret: China,” is modeled after the U.S. approach to studying the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
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On Monday, CSIS hosted a panel of defense experts and asked them to read 87 pages of translated Chinese commentary. The panelists were struck by the sophistication and nuances of the analyses, noting that one paper correctly understood that the U.S. actions in building up deterrence were defensive in nature.
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The project is changing the way analysts discuss China, and provides a framework for understanding the motivations of Beijing. The database is a valuable resource for gaining insight into the Chinese leadership and its approach to the U.S. and the world.
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Sean Monaghan, a visiting fellow with the CSIS Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, found the Chinese policy papers “mind blowing.”
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He was expecting Sun Tzu but got Thomas Schelling and Glenn Snyder instead.
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All references point to understanding what is meant by deterrence, compellence, and coercion.
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China expert and managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program, Bonnie Glaser, doubts that Chinese President Xi Jinping reads such policy papers.
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They may be read by others throughout the system, she said.
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This allows for a more accurate understanding of what points are shared in the Chinese leadership and what points are being made.
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Glaser provided the example of the “October surprise” when Gen. Mark Milley phoned Chinese counterpart Gen. Li Zuocheng to assure him that the U.S. was not preparing a strike in the South China Sea.
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This gives the U.S. the opportunity to go back to the Chinese and clear up any misunderstandings of U.S. policy.
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Recent articles have suggested that the Chinese believe the U.S. is preparing to launch an attack. This has led to a hardening of positions in Washington over China, with members of both parties describing the threat it poses. Fareed Zakaria noted that the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party’s Feb. 28 hearing was like being transported back to the 1950s.
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Michael Glaser, an expert on deterrence, said that reading these kinds of articles can give us a sense of where the Chinese might misread U.S. intentions and take actions to avoid an escalation spiral. Mike Gallagher, the Republican chairman of the select committee, said the Chinese Communist Party is focused on a world crowded with “techno-totalitarian surveillance states” where human rights are subordinate to the party.
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Raja Krishnamoorthi, the Democrat Ranking Member, said both parties have underestimated the CCP and assumed trade and investment would lead to democracy. However, RAND Corp. senior political scientist, Michael Mazarr, said the U.S. is trapped in a security dilemma, where any action other than reinforcement and development of military ties with Taiwan is seen as weak. This dynamic undermines the basis for peace and makes moving away from it politically difficult.
链接：U.S. translation project opens window on China's ambitions, fears - Nikkei Asia