作者埃里克·施密特是谷歌前首席执行官
文章开篇就提到俄乌战争，认为
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2022年2月，乌克兰被俄罗斯军队打得落花流水，但却能够利用技术优势。
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他们将关键数据上传到云端，重新利用他们的电子政务移动应用程序进行开源情报收集，并使用Starlink卫星和地面站来保持联系。
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他们还获得了自己的无人机来拦截俄罗斯的攻击和西方盟友提供的陌生武器。
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乌克兰的成功是由于他们人民的决心、俄罗斯薄弱的军事力量和西方的支持，但也是由于他们的创新能力。
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创新力是发明、采用和适应新技术的能力，它有助于硬实力和软实力。
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人工智能加快了科学进程，重塑了世界。
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美国和中国在创新力方面存在竞争，而美国目前处于领先地位。
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美国需要克服官僚主义的冲动，为创新创造有利条件，并投资于启动技术进步的良性循环所需的工具和人才。
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这对于确保自由社会、开放市场、民主政府和更广泛的世界秩序的未来是必要的。
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人工智能系统已经在军事领域提供了关键优势，例如乌克兰军队使用人工智能扫描数据。
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人工智能系统最终将不仅仅是协助人类，而是开始自己做决定，更快地执行OODA循环。
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人工智能在本质上是生成性的，导致不断创新，更快的量子计算将允许更大的数据处理。
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人工通用智能（AGI）是一种假想的技术，可以执行人类可以执行的任何精神任务，甚至更多。
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谁先开发出AGI，谁就将拥有巨大的优势，能够用它来创造更先进的版本，并在所有其他科学和技术领域获得优势。
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在这一领域的突破可能会迎来一个与核时代不一样的主导地位的时代。
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人工智能是一项基础技术，将在创新力量的竞争中至关重要，是药物发现、基因治疗、材料科学和清洁能源的未来发展的背后。
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人工智能还将改变科学研究的本质，使科学家能够分析大量的数据集，并腾出时间来开发新的想法。
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AGI还需要几年时间，但谁先开发出AGI，谁就将拥有重大优势。
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与传统武器相比，无人机具有明显的优势：它们更小、更便宜，并提供无可比拟的监视能力。
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在城市战争中，海军陆战队员可以由微型无人机陪伴，作为他们的眼睛和耳朵。
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自主的武器化无人机最终将取代士兵和有人驾驶的火炮。
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技术优势增强了一个国家发动战争的能力，并加强了其威慑能力。
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它还通过赋予国家对供应链的影响力和为他人制定规则的能力来塑造经济实力。
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中国可以对其提供通信硬件的国家行使权力。
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台湾在半导体制造方面的首要地位提供了一个强大的威慑力，以防止入侵。
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美国因其在创建互联网方面的作用而受益，使科技公司能够拒绝审查要求。
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技术创新也促进了一个国家的软实力。
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好莱坞和科技公司向全球消费者传播美国的价值观。
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与美国大学相关的声望和创造财富的机会吸引了全球各地的人们。
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一个国家投射力量的能力取决于它比竞争对手更快、更好地创新的能力。
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现在的创新带来了巨大的优势，因为它创造了一种路径依赖，导致了更多的创新。
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创新依靠的是发明、采用和适应的循环。
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美国引领世界进入4G时代，使Uber等移动应用得以发展。
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由于更容易获得学术研究和开源软件，在技术方面具有结构优势的国家的护城河正在缩小。
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中国已经利用了外国的技术突破，并投入了数十亿美元来确保技术优势。
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记录是好坏参半的，中国在一些技术上领先，在另一些技术上落后。
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北京已宣布计划在2030年前成为全球人工智能领域的领导者，甚至可能比预期更早实现这一目标。
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中国已经是基于人工智能的监控技术的领导者，它用来控制国内的持不同政见者，并出售给其他独裁政府。
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中国在吸引人工智能领域最优秀的人才方面仍然落后，但由于其宽松的隐私法、强制性的数据收集和有针对性的政府资助，因此具有优势。
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中国正在大力投资于量子技术，希望建立强大的量子计算机，足以解密今天的加密技术。中国可能还在存储通信，以期在未来解密，这种策略被称为 “现在存储，以后解密”。美国目前在量子计算方面处于领先地位，但比赛正在进行。
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中国在合成生物学方面正在迅速追赶美国，自2019年以来，私人投资超过了美国的投资。这一领域的科学家们正在研究许多有助于应对气候变化的发展。
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中国也有雄心勃勃的计划，到2030年成为半导体制造业的领导者。与美国结盟的国家在芯片设计方面超过了中国，但中国公司控制着这些芯片所需的85%的稀土矿物质的加工。拜登政府最近阻止了美国公司向中国出售人工智能计算机芯片。
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美国和中国之间的竞争是系统之间的竞争，也是国家之间的竞争。
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中国的模式依赖于政府对 "国家冠军 "的资助，而美国的模式则依赖于一系列更加分散的私人行为者。
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美国政府已经变得不喜欢资助应用研究，基础研究的资金已经下降到50%以下。
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美国的成功故事有赖于雄心壮志、有利于创业的法律和税收制度以及开放的文化。
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然而，这可能不足以与中国竞争，美国政府需要为政府、私营部门和学术界之间的相互作用重新注入活力。
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国会已经通过了《CHIPS和科学法案》，在未来10年指导2000亿美元的研发资金。
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一个新的技术竞争力委员会可以帮助协调私人行为者之间的行动，并制定一个国家计划来推进关键的新兴技术。
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美国应该在技术竞争的关键领域投资数十亿美元，如半导体和可再生能源。
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美国政府应该在岸上和 "朋友岸上 "的供应链。
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资助微电子学的研发，储存稀土矿。
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为5G的推广向私营机构开放更多的频谱。
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投资于创新周期的所有部分，资助基础研究和商业化。
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电动汽车是研究导致商业化的例子。
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追求新技术，如人工智能、量子计算和合成生物学，以实现商业化的目标。
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投资于人才，吸引世界各地最好和最聪明的人。
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对人工智能人才的需求远远超过了供应。
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美国拥有雇用高技能移民的优势，如果对人才关上大门，就有可能失去创新优势。
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美国的下一个技术突破将可能依赖于移民。
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美国必须重新思考其国防政策，制定一个 "抵消-X "战略，以保持技术和军事优势。
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网络防御需要比人类的反应时间更快，并具有冗余性。
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投资于防御性火炮和导弹系统，使用由人工智能驱动的廉价传感器网络来提高战场意识。
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军事单位应该网络化和分散化，以更好地战胜对手。
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将新技术融入采购流程、战斗计划和作战中。
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在产品设计方面向科技行业寻求灵感，更快、更有成本效益地制造导弹。
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价格是判断创新能力的一个糟糕的指标。
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投资于许多低成本的项目而不是少数高价位的声望项目往往更有意义。
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乌克兰军队用两枚50万美元的海王星导弹击沉了一艘价值7.5亿美元的俄罗斯军舰。
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美国和中国正在进行技术竞争，其结果将由未来5-10年的进步决定。
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美国政府被激励着关注短期，导致对未来技术的投资不足。
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二战导致了重大的技术进步，而美国现在必须在和平时期进行创新。
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如果不这样做，可能会导致毁灭性的后果，如高超音速导弹使美国毫无防备，对电网的网络攻击，以及量身定制的虚假信息活动。
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美国需要领先于其竞争对手，以防止这些可怕的事情发生。
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自由、资本主义和个人努力的原则促成了改变日常生活的突破，必须继续作为创新生态系统的基础。
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美国在创新竞赛中是以杆位开始的，但不能保证它将保持在那里。
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硅谷 "不创新就会死 "的口号不仅在工业上，而且在地缘政治上也是如此。
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Ukraine was outgunned and outmanned by Russian forces in February 2022, but was able to leverage technology to their advantage.
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They uploaded critical data to the cloud, repurposed their e-government mobile app for open-source intelligence collection, and used Starlink satellites and ground stations to stay connected.
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They also acquired their own drones to intercept Russian attacks and unfamiliar weapons supplied by Western allies.
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Ukraine’s success was due to their people’s resolve, Russia’s weak military, and Western support, but also due to their innovation power.
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Innovation power is the ability to invent, adopt, and adapt new technologies, which contributes to both hard and soft power.
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Artificial intelligence has sped up the scientific process and reshaped the world.
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The U.S. and China are in competition for innovation power, with the U.S. currently in the lead.
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The U.S. needs to overcome bureaucratic impulses, create favorable conditions for innovation, and invest in the tools and talent needed to kick-start the virtuous cycle of technological advancement.
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This is necessary to ensure the future of free societies, open markets, democratic government, and the broader world order.
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AI systems are already providing key advantages in the military domain, such as the Ukrainian military using AI to scan data.
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AI systems will eventually move beyond just assisting humans and start making decisions themselves, executing the OODA loop faster.
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AI is generative in nature, leading to continuous innovation, and faster quantum computing will allow for even larger data processing.
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Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a hypothetical technology that could perform any mental task a human can and more.
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Whoever develops AGI first will have a massive advantage, being able to use it to create more advanced versions and gain an edge in all other domains of science and technology.
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A breakthrough in this field could usher in an era of predominance not unlike the nuclear age.
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AI is a foundational technology that will be critical in the race for innovation power, being behind future developments in drug discovery, gene therapy, material science, and clean energy.
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AI will also change the very nature of scientific research by allowing scientists to analyze massive data sets and free up their time for developing new ideas.
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AGI is still years away, but whoever develops it first will have a major advantage.
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Drones offer distinct advantages over traditional weapons: they are smaller, cheaper, and offer unmatched surveillance capabilities.
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Marines in urban warfare could be accompanied by microdrones that serve as their eyes and ears.
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Autonomous weaponized drones will eventually replace soldiers and manned artillery.
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Technological dominance bolsters a country’s ability to wage war and strengthens its deterrent capabilities.
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It also shapes economic power by giving states leverage over supply chains and the ability to make the rules for others.
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China can wield power over countries it supplies with communications hardware.
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Taiwan’s primacy in semiconductor manufacturing provides a powerful deterrent against invasion.
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The US benefits from its role in founding the internet, enabling tech companies to refuse censorship requests.
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Technological innovation also boosts a country’s soft power.
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Hollywood and tech companies spread American values to a global consumer base.
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Prestige associated with US universities and opportunities for wealth creation attract people from across the globe.
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A country’s ability to project power depends on its ability to innovate faster and better than its competitors.
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Innovation now gives a massive advantage, as it creates a path dependency that leads to more innovation.
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Innovation relies on a loop of invention, adoption, and adaptation.
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The US led the world into the 4G era, allowing for the development of mobile applications like Uber.
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The moat of countries with structural advantages in technology is shrinking due to more accessible academic research and open-source software.
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China has taken advantage of foreign technological breakthroughs and has poured billions of dollars into ensuring tech supremacy.
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The record is mixed, with China ahead in some technologies and behind in others.
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Beijing has announced plans to become the global leader in AI by 2030, and it may even achieve this earlier than expected.
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China is already the leader in AI-based surveillance technology, which it uses to control dissidents at home and sells to other authoritarian governments.
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China still lags behind in attracting the best minds in AI, but has advantages due to its loose privacy laws, mandatory data collection, and targeted government funding.
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China is investing heavily in quantum technology, hoping to build quantum computers powerful enough to decrypt today’s encryption. China may also be storing communications with an eye to decrypting them in the future, a strategy known as “store now, decrypt later.” The U.S. is currently ahead in quantum computing, but the race is on.
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China is rapidly catching up to the U.S. in synthetic biology, with private investment outstripping U.S. investment since 2019. Scientists in this field are working on many developments that could help fight climate change.
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China also has ambitious plans to become a leader in semiconductor manufacturing by 2030. U.S.-aligned countries are outperforming China in chip design, but Chinese companies control 85 percent of the processing of rare-earth minerals for these chips. The Biden administration recently blocked U.S. companies from selling AI computer chips to China.
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The competition between the US and China is a competition between systems as well as states.
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The Chinese model relies on government funding of “national champions” while the US model relies on a more disparate set of private actors.
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The US government has become averse to funding applied research and basic research funding has dropped below 50%.
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The US success story relies on ambition, startup-friendly legal and tax regimes, and a culture of openness.
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However, it may not be enough to compete with China and the US government needs to reenergize the interplay between the government, private sector, and academia.
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Congress has passed the CHIPS and Science Act which directs $200 billion in funding for R&D over the next 10 years.
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A new technology competitiveness council could help coordinate action among private actors and develop a national plan to advance crucial emerging technologies.
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US should invest billions in key areas of technological competition such as semiconductors and renewable energy.
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US government should onshore and “friend shore” supply chains.
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Fund R & D for microelectronics and stockpile rare-earth minerals.
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Open up more of the spectrum to private actors for 5G rollout.
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Invest in all parts of the innovation cycle, funding basic research and commercialization.
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Electric cars example of research leading to commercialization.
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Pursue new technologies such as AI, quantum computing, and synthetic biology with goal of commercialization.
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Invest in talent, attract best and brightest from around the world.
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Demand for AI talent far exceeds supply.
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US has advantage of employing highly skilled immigrants and risk losing innovative edge if it closes its doors to talent.
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Next American technological breakthrough will likely rely on immigrants.
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The United States must rethink its defense policies and develop an “Offset-X” strategy to maintain technological and military superiority.
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Cyber defenses need to be faster than humans’ reaction time and have redundancy.
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Invest in defensive artillery and missile systems and use a network of inexpensive sensors powered by AI to improve battlefield awareness.
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Military units should be networked and decentralized to better outmaneuver opponents.
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Integrate new technologies into procurement process, battle plans, and warfighting.
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Look to the tech industry for inspiration in product design and build missiles faster and more cost-effectively.
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Price is a poor metric for judging innovation power.
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Investing in many low-cost items instead of a few high-ticket prestige projects often makes more sense.
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Ukrainian forces sank a $750 million Russian warship with two $500,000 Neptune missiles.
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The U.S. and China are in a technological competition and the outcome of this will be determined by advances in the next 5-10 years.
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The U.S. government is incentivized to focus on the short term, leading to underinvestment in future technologies.
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World War II led to major technological advances, and the U.S. must now innovate in peacetime.
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Failure to do so could lead to devastating consequences such as hypersonic missiles leaving the U.S. defenseless, cyberattacks on the electric grid, and tailored disinformation campaigns.
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The U.S. needs to stay ahead of its competitors to prevent these horrors.
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The principles of freedom, capitalism, and individual effort have enabled breakthroughs that have transformed everyday life and must remain the foundation of an innovation ecosystem.
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The U.S. started the innovation race in pole position, but cannot rest assured it will remain there.
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The Silicon Valley mantra of “innovate or die” holds true not just in industry but also in geopolitics.