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中国在新冠之后的经济复苏将与以往不同。
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中国传统的刺激措施和大量投资的方法不可能像过去那样有效。
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这个国家已经负债累累，住房市场举步维艰，而且已经建设了大部分所需的基础设施。因此，复苏将由摆脱限制和旅行禁令的消费者主导。
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中国的Covid爆发似乎正在放缓，中国的消费者开始再次冒险购物。
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较富裕的中国人已经开始打开他们的钱包，但许多人仍然选择储蓄而不是消费。
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中国国内将出现最强劲的反弹，餐馆、酒吧和旅游等服务行业的增长幅度最大。这种复兴的直接影响在其他地方将不如在过去的刺激政策主导的扩张中那么明显。
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预计中国将实现强大的经济复苏，但增长对世界其他地区的溢出效应将比以前的周期要小得多。美国经济不太可能从反弹中感受到很多好处，因为它对中国的服务业的影响有限。
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国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，2023年中国经济将增长5.2%，而美国的预期增长率为1.4%，欧洲20国共同货币区的增长率为0.7%。国际货币基金组织预测，今年中国将占到全球增长的三分之一左右，而美国和欧洲的增长总和只有10%。
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2022年，当美国的增长率为2.1%时，中国的经济增长了3%，这是自1976年毛泽东去世以来第二糟糕的表现。中国在全球增长中的份额下降到16%。
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Asean+3宏观经济研究办公室的Hoe Ee Khor认为，由于美国和欧洲的经济将出现急剧下滑，中国经济对今年的全球复苏非常重要。
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更富裕的中国人可以通过在东南亚等地的奢侈品和度假消费来帮助提振全球经济。
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瑞士钟表制造商斯沃琪集团(Swatch Group AG)报告称，重新开业后在中国的销售出现反弹，预计今年的收入将创下新高。
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LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE的首席执行官Bernard Arnault报告说，澳门的商店再次爆满。
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波音公司的首席执行官David Calhoun将中国的重新开放描述为 “航空业的一个重大事件”。
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波音公司希望让闲置的飞机重新上天，并对进一步向中国交付飞机持乐观态度，因为中国的航空公司将需要他们的737 MAX飞机来满足增加的航班需求。
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在大流行期间，许多中国家庭从政府获得的财政支持远远少于发达经济体的工人，导致许多消费者仍然担心就业市场疲软和房地产持续低迷。
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高露洁-棕榄公司和百胜中国控股等公司在农历新年假期期间的销售额有所上升，但对前景仍持谨慎态度。
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过去，当中国提供刺激性增长时，全世界都能感受到它对商品和机械的需求。
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2009年，中国5860亿美元的经济刺激计划帮助中国经济扩大了9.4%，为发达经济体提供了强有力的抗衡。高盛估计，这种重新开放将为全球经济增长增加1个百分点，主要是通过能源、进口和旅游。牛津经济研究院建议对全球经济增长的提振较小，为0.2个百分点。高盛还估计，中国重新开放对美国经济增长的直接影响将略显负面，尽管全球贸易和商业活动的增加，以及家庭和企业更容易的融资，可能会给美国带来间接好处。
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中国的经济有一些潜在的问题，如地方政府债务缠身，以及由于房价下跌导致房屋销售减少。这导致对铁矿石等商品的需求减少。此外，中国政府正试图在国内生产更多的资本货物，而不是进口，并对污染行业进行控制。
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2022年，钢铁生产和铁矿石进口都有所下降。必和必拓集团有限公司预计，中国将稳定商品需求，但不会达到大流行前的增长速度。国内航班已迅速回升，但前往欧洲和美国的国际航班仍远未达到大流行前的水平。
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主要启示。中国的经济有一些潜在的问题，如地方政府债务缠身和房屋销售下降。这导致对铁矿石等商品的需求减少。北京正试图在国内生产更多的资本货物，而不是进口，并正在控制污染行业。2022年，钢铁生产和铁矿石进口都有所下降，国际航班还没有达到大流行前的水平。
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2021年1月，前往中国大陆以外目的地的航班数量只有2019年的15%。
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就目前而言，前往泰国这一热门目的地的中国游客大多是商务人士或富裕的独立游客。
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位于纽约的研究公司Logan Wright表示，中国的消费复苏预计将是 “肤浅而短暂的”。中国家庭去年积累了2.6万亿美元的新储蓄，但只有不到30%的钱可以直接用于消费。就业市场仍然疲软，房地产的不景气正在消减家庭财富。
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China’s post-Covid-19 economic recovery will be different than previous ones.
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China’s traditional methods of stimulus and heavy investment are not likely to be as effective as in the past.
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The country is already in debt, has a struggling housing market, and has already built much of the infrastructure it needs. Therefore, the recovery will be led by consumers who are casting off restrictions and travel bans.
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China’s Covid outbreak appears to be slowing, and Chinese consumers are beginning to venture out and shop again.
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Wealthier Chinese have begun to open their wallets, but many are still choosing to save more than spend.
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The strongest rebound will be felt within China, with service industries such as restaurants, bars and travel seeing the greatest growth. The direct effects of this revival will be less pronounced elsewhere than in the stimulus-led expansions of the past.
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China is projected to deliver a powerful economic recovery, however the growth spillover to the rest of the world will be much more muted than in previous cycles. The U.S. economy is unlikely to feel much benefit from the rebound, as it has limited exposure to China’s service industries.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts China’s economy to expand 5.2% in 2023, compared to 1.4% growth rate expected in the U.S. and 0.7% in Europe’s 20-nation common currency area. The IMF predicts China will account for around a third of global growth this year, compared with just 10% for the U.S. and Europe combined.
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In 2022, when the U.S. grew at 2.1%, China’s economy expanded 3%, its second-worst performance since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976. China’s share of global growth sank to 16%.
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Hoe Ee Khor of the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office believes that the Chinese economy is important for global recovery this year as U.S. and Europe will experience a sharp decline in their economies.
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Wealthier Chinese can help boost the global economy by spending on luxury goods and vacations in places such as Southeast Asia.
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Swiss watchmaker Swatch Group AG reported a rebound in sales in China after reopening, expecting to have a record year in terms of revenue.
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Bernard Arnault, CEO of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, reported that stores in Macau were full again.
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David Calhoun, CEO of Boeing Inc., described China’s reopening as “a major event in aviation”.
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Boeing is hoping to get idled aircraft back in the air and is optimistic about further deliveries to China as Chinese carriers will need their 737 MAX aircraft to meet the increased demand for flights.
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Many Chinese households received far less fiscal support from their government than workers in advanced economies during the pandemic, resulting in many consumers remaining worried about a weak job market and a continuing real-estate slump.
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Companies such as Colgate-Palmolive and Yum China Holdings have seen a bump in sales during the Lunar New Year holidays, but remain cautious about the outlook.
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In the past, when China provided stimulus-fueled growth, its demand for commodities and machinery was felt all over the world.
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In 2009, China’s $586 billion stimulus package helped to expand the economy by 9.4%, providing a powerful counterweight to advanced economies. Goldman Sachs estimates that this reopening will add 1 percentage point to global economic growth, primarily through energy, imports, and travel. Oxford Economics suggests a smaller boost to global growth of 0.2 percentage points. Goldman Sachs also estimates that the direct effect of China’s reopening on U.S. growth would be slightly negative, though there may be indirect benefits to the U.S. from increased global trade and business activity, as well as easier financing for households and businesses.
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China’s economy has underlying issues such as debt-ridden local governments and a decrease in home sales due to falling prices. This has caused a decrease in demand for commodities such as iron ore. Additionally, Beijing is attempting to produce more capital goods domestically rather than importing and is reining in polluting industries.
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Steel production and iron ore imports have both dropped in 2022. BHP Group Ltd. expects China to stabilize commodity demand, but not reach pre-pandemic growth rates. Domestic flights have picked up quickly, but international flights to Europe and the US are still far from prepandemic levels.
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Key takeaways: China’s economy has underlying issues such as debt-ridden local governments and falling home sales. This has caused a decrease in demand for commodities such as iron ore. Beijing is attempting to produce more capital goods domestically rather than importing and is reining in polluting industries. Steel production and iron ore imports have both dropped in 2022 and international flights have yet to reach pre-pandemic levels.
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In January 2021, the number of flights to destinations outside mainland China was only 15% of what they were in 2019.
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For now, Chinese travelers to Thailand, a popular destination, are mostly businesspeople or affluent independent tourists.
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The consumption recovery in China is expected to be “shallow and short-lived” according to Logan Wright, a research firm based in New York. Chinese households accumulated $2.6 trillion in fresh savings last year, but less than 30% of the money is available to spend straight away. The job market is still weak and the real-estate slump is sapping household wealth.