作者德里克-格罗斯曼是兰德公司的高级国防分析员和南加州大学的兼职教授。他曾在五角大楼担任过情报顾问。他曾就核扩散、美国外交政策和中国军事战略等主题撰写了大量文章。格罗斯曼还为《华盛顿邮报》、《华尔街日报》和《外交事务》等主要出版物撰写文章。
去年5月在韩国上任的保守派尹锡悦在竞选期间曾承诺寻求更多的美国反导系统来对抗朝鲜。然而，他后来放弃了他的承诺，试图改善与韩国最大贸易伙伴中国的关系。
在其总统任期的早期，尹锡悦显示出在军事上向美国靠拢的迹象。5月，他和拜登（Joe Biden）鼓吹维护其共同价值观和自由开放地区的重要性。6月，尹锡悦成为第一位在北约峰会上发言的韩国领导人，峰会的重点是联盟如何对抗俄罗斯和中国。
到了夏末，尹锡悦在追求与美国建立更紧密的关系方面已经显示出犹豫的迹象，这可能是由于希望与中国保持良好关系。这让那些曾认真对待尹锡悦的竞选言论的观察家们感到惊讶。
时任美国众议院议长的南希-佩洛西于8月2日访问台湾，引起了北京的强烈反对。两天后，韩国总统尹锡悦在佩洛西抵达韩国后，与她进行了最后的电话沟通，但随后又放了五天假。在此期间，朴晋外长在北京与中国外长举行了敏感会谈。
2017年，韩国同意部署第一个THAAD电池，以帮助阻止来袭的朝鲜导弹。北京抗议说，该系统可以帮助美军在中国境内的目标。此后，尹锡悦总统告诫北京，他不认为他的前任文在寅的 "三不 "政策是不可改变的，即韩国不会增加任何新的THAAD导弹系统，不参与美国的导弹防御网络，不加入与美国和日本的三边军事联盟。
然而，尹锡悦对扩大THAAD导弹系统的部署按兵不动，而且政府在12月该国首次发表的印太战略声明中态度温和。这表明尹锡悦在THAAD问题上采取了谨慎的态度，不愿意做出任何大的改变。
韩国总统尹锡悦没有公开谈论四方的参与细节，可能是因为北京认为这是一种遏制机制。
北京对THAAD导弹系统的经济报复使首尔在与中国的关系中做出的每一个决定都带有色彩。
朝鲜一直在行动，2022年试射的导弹比以往任何一年都要多，并派遣无人机穿越非军事区。因此，尹锡悦必须谨慎行事，以避免中国采取更多报复措施。
韩国的尹锡悦政府面临着朝韩紧张关系的加剧，这限制了其过多关注中国的能力。尹锡悦仍然是对抗朝鲜的坚定盟友，并加强了与美国传统盟友日本的安全关系。尹锡悦还倡导基于规则的自由国际秩序。尹锡悦政府最近对中国游客实施了更严格的入境要求，以遏制冠状病毒的传播，而中国则通过停止发放韩国人的短期签证进行报复。然而，尹锡悦府坚持认为其决定是基于科学而非政治。
韩国有可能加入美国领导的Chip 4联盟，以使半导体制造从中国走向多样化。这可以被看作是一种经济而非政治安排。
韩国贸易部长Yoon并不是要对抗中国，而是要成为一个在国际社会中发挥宝贵作用的全球枢纽国家。这将需要在美国和中国之间取得谨慎的平衡。
在韩国与美国结盟的同时，尹锡悦希望与中国保持稳定的关系，以便从两个世界的最佳利益中获益。
Conservative Yoon Suk Yeol, who took office last May in South Korea, had promised to seek more of the American antimissile systems to counter North Korea during his campaign. However, he has since backed away from his promise in an attempt to improve relations with China, South Korea’s biggest trade partner.
Early on in his presidential tenure, Yoon showed signs of drawing closer to the U.S. militarily. In May, he and Joe Biden touted the importance of preserving their shared values and a free and open region. In June, Yoon became the first South Korean leader to speak at a NATO summit, which focused on how the alliance could counter Russia and China.
By late summer, Yoon was already showing signs of hesitation in his pursuit of closer ties with the U.S., likely due to the desire to maintain good relations with China. This has surprised observers who had taken Yoon’s campaign rhetoric seriously.
Nancy Pelosi, then the U.S. House speaker, visited Taiwan on Aug. 2, causing vociferous objections from Beijing. South Korean President Yoon held a last-minute phone call with Pelosi following her arrival in South Korea two days later, but then took a five-day vacation. During this time, Foreign Minister Park Jin held sensitive talks with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing.
In 2017, South Korea agreed to deploy the first THAAD battery to help stop incoming North Korean missiles. Beijing protested that the system could help the U.S. military target inside China. President Yoon has since cautioned Beijing that he does not consider his predecessor Moon Jae-in’s “three nos” policy immutable, which stated that South Korea would not add any new THAAD batteries, not participate in U.S. missile defense networks and not join a trilateral military alliance with the U.S. and Japan.
However, Yoon has held back from expanding THAAD battery deployments and the government treaded softly in the country’s debut Indo-Pacific strategy statement in December. This shows that Yoon is taking a cautious approach to the THAAD issue and is not willing to make any drastic changes.
South Korean President Yoon has not publicly talked about Quad participation in detail, likely due to Beijing’s view of it as a mechanism of containment.
Beijing’s economic retaliation over the THAAD missile system colors every decision Seoul makes in its relationship with China.
North Korea has been acting up, test-firing more missiles in 2022 than in any year prior and sending drones across the DMZ. As a result, Yoon must proceed cautiously in order to avoid additional retaliatory measures from China.
The Yoon administration in South Korea faces heightened inter-Korean tensions that limit its ability to focus too much on China. President Park has met with Wang in Beijing to seek Chinese assistance in pressuring North Korea back to the bargaining table. Yoon remains a staunch ally in countering North Korea and has strengthened security ties with Japan, a traditional American ally. Yoon also champions the liberal rules-based international order. The Yoon government recently imposed tougher entry requirements on Chinese visitors to curb the spread of coronavirus, and China retaliated by halting the issuance of short-term visas for Koreans. However, the Yoon government insisted its decision was based on science, not politics.
South Korea is likely to join the U.S.-led Chip 4 alliance to diversify semiconductor manufacturing away from China. This could be seen as an economic rather than political arrangement.
South Korea’s Minister of Trade Yoon is not looking to counter China, but to become a global pivotal state that plays a valuable role in the international community. This will require a careful balance between the U.S. and China.
While South Korea is in an alliance with the U.S., Yoon hopes to keep relations with China stable in order to benefit from the best of both worlds.
链接：U.S. cannot count on South Korea's Yoon to line up against China - Nikkei Asia 强调文本