China's Special Envoy Li Hui has urged Ukraine and Russia to stop the war and resume talks as part of his own initiative to push for a ceasefire between the two countries. He was appointed as a peace envoy to Ukraine after a phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky three weeks ago. Li met with senior Ukrainian officials to discuss a political solution to the crisis and their views on China-Ukraine relations. However, it is not known whether Beijing's peace proposal was received favourably by Kyiv.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has acknowledged problems with the nation's energy revenues in a televised meeting. Putin, who chaired the meeting via video link, said Siluanov concerns should be downplayed since lower revenues are due to "voluntary cuts" in oil production announced in coordination with Opec+ partners. Russia has been forced to sell crude oil at heavy discounts after western sanctions to reduce revenue came into effect, followed by G7-led price caps on Russian energy.
The UK has gifted Ukraine with long-range missiles to help bolster the nation's defence against Russian aggression. In recent years, some Western powers have begun to reconsider their approach to arming Ukraine, with many now recognising that the risk of escalation comes from Ukraine having insufficient means to protect itself. The UK has been an enthusiastic supporter of arming Ukraine, being the first country to provide the nation with battle tanks earlier this year. Alongside last week's missile gift, the UK has promised to supply long-range attack drones and provide training for Ukrainian fighter pilots. In addition, Britain is looking to lead a coalition to supply Ukraine with the F-16 fighter jets. This move is significant, as the offensive is set to require other countries taking the UK's lead. The use of long-range missiles has the potential to change both the military and political landscape of the region.
Overnight missile strikes against Ukraine by Russia failed, with the Ukrainian military stating it had shot down 29 Russian cruise missiles out of 30. The strikes targeted areas including Kyiv and the southern city of Odessa. The National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine has described Kyiv as "Putin's relentless and unachievable target". The council also claimed that the fact the hypersonic missiles have been neutralised so easily served "to burst the nuclear bubble."
Pope Francis is reportedly planning to send personal envoys to the presidents of Russia and Ukraine in an attempt to broker a ceasefire in their ongoing conflict, according to a Vatican news website. The pope allegedly revealed details of the mission to reporters on his return from Hungary last month. According to Il Sismografo, the envoys would be Archibishop Claudio Gugerotti, head of the Vatican’s department for Eastern Churches, and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna; they would meet with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy respectively. Although both countries have reportedly agreed to hear the papal envoys’ message, Vatican spokesman Matteo Bruni had no comment on the story.
The Chinese view towards the Ukrainian conflict is full of ambivalence and omissions, say Ukrainian observers. Though Xi Jinping has remained the only world leader to maintain ties with Vladimir Putin, he has yet to denounce Russia for its actions in the Ukraine. While he now appears to be trying to add a peacekeeper’s feather to his cap, observers suggest he may be trying to freeze the war on Russia’s terms, allowing the country to replenish its arsenals, train more troops and switch to wartime mode, rather than offering any meaningful peace process. However, with China increasingly relying on Russia for oil, gas, coal and timber exports, and Russia trying to find new markets as sanctions are deployed by the West, the “junior” part in the alliance with Russia is becoming increasingly tough to maintain. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, supplies of Chinese drones and microchips have begun, but there is growing speculation that China may begin to provide Russia with weapon supplies if Ukraine’s President rejects China’s peace offering.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has offered warm birthday wishes to President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ahead of the two-day China-Central Asia summit getting underway today. Tokayev turned 70 on Wednesday, just ahead of the summit, which will begin via video link due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Amid the upbeat exchanges, observers suggested that the gestures indicated that China was anxious to show respect for the Central Asian leader, who is closely tied to China.
The ideals of Traditionalism, a belief system that claims that there exists a primordial order beyond the visible world to which only certain individuals may be initiated, have resurged in recent years, according to a new survey by author Mark Sedgwick. Traditionalism's emphasis on the contrast between sacred order and modern disorder is fueling the resurgence. A combination of critique and alternative understanding of reality in response to modernity's perceived flaws has made Traditionalism attractive to political figures who support it, such as Aleksandr Dugin, said to be the ideologue behind President Putin, noted Sedgwick.
A newly published report on the FBI’s investigations into the 2016 presidential election suggests a politically motivated bias, with the agency having treated the election candidates, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, quite differently. The report, by US Department of Justice Special Counsel John H. Durham, says that the FBI was too quick to launch its Crossfire Hurricane investigation into allegations that Trump’s campaign team colluded with Russia, although it also found that there had been no proven collusion between the parties. Durham also concluded that the FBI had “never opened any type of inquiry” into the allegation that Clinton’s campaign sought to deflect controversy over her use of emails by linking Trump with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The FBI “never launched an investigation into rumours that foreign agents wished to target Team Clinton but, instead, provided Hillary's people with a defence briefing,” says journalist Matthew Sweet. The investigations and accusations about collusion had repercussions that undermined both candidates' electoral prospects and contributed to a widespread perception that it shaped US foreign policy.
Ukraine has made small territorial gains in Bakhmut, after fiercely repelling an attack by Russia on Thursday. Russian forces launched a number missile strikes across the country overnight, with Ukraine claiming to successfully shoot down 29 of 30 missiles. Meanwhile, Ukraine urged citizens to evacuate the industrial zone in Kyiv after ammunition storage depots there caught fire following a missile hit, and there were reports of huge explosions. The developments illustrate the fragility of the truce agreed this year, with US officials now speaking of the imminence of a Russian invasion.
Russian soldiers fighting on the front line in Ukraine are suffering, and with rising casualty rates, Putin is paying a high price for his decision to invade. The Russian Army moved into the Crimea in February 2014, and fighting began with Ukrainian forces in the Donbas that April. The casual factors that Putin has been successful in hiding until now are becoming readily apparent, and a peace recessions looks like it would probably result in Putin's forced military collapse. It is thought that the reasons Putin would not want a ceasefire are that it would confirm the values of the international order, which he loathes, and second, would make it difficult for him to expand his military objectives in fighting in Syria, where he supports President Assad.
Paparazzi photographers have said they were not responsible for a “near catastrophic car chase” involving the Duke and Duchess of Sussex in New York. Freelance photographers who were covering the couple’s visit said the couple had not been at any point “in immediate danger”. They suggested the vehicles used by the Sussexes’ security escort may have driven dangerously, potentially “blocking off streets”. Backgrid USA, a celebrity news service, is investigating allegations that the couple’s safety was put at risk by paparazzi. Photographers from the company denied that they had been involved in any near misses, stating that the duchess had been photographed smiling in the back of a taxi following an award ceremony. Meanwhile, the UK Treasury has revealed that the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II cost the government an estimated £161.7m. The event, which took place at London’s Westminster Abbey in September 2022, was preceded by an 11-day period of national mourning.
European allies have promised more military support to Ukraine, with additional weapons, training, and funding pledged for the military effort. However, the allies stopped short of providing the F-16 fighter jets that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has requested. Meanwhile, African leaders are planning peace missions to Moscow and Kyiv as Russia increases missile attacks ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. Experts discuss the interests at stake and the potential for shifting political alliances.
The alleged price-capping mechanism introduced by the Group of Seven against Russia last year has failed to limit the Kremlin's crude oil revenues since it continues to flow while revenues remain almost unchanged. Initiated by the US government, the mechanism focused on cutting the Russian government's revenue while enabling global exports to continue. The plan hoped to reduce oil prices by limiting the buyers' payment structure for Russian crude and diesel to $60 and $100 a barrel. However, troubling statements have emerged, which indicated that the sanctions in this regard pushed Russian oil trading away from reliable, well-known shipping companies and related trades to new, little informed ones.
The UK is to ban Russian diamond imports as part of its latest sanctions targeting Russia in response to their invasion of Ukraine. The new legislation will also block imports of Russian-origin nickel, copper, and aluminium. President Putin and 86 more people and companies connected to him are also set to be targeted by the sanctions, including those who are "actively undermining the impact of existing sanctions". The Russian diamond industry is worth $4bn in UK exports and the sanctions follow similar moves by the US and EU. The UK has targeted over 1,500 entities and individuals and frozen more than £18bn of assets since Russia's attack on Ukraine.
Britain will announce a ban on Russian diamond sales and block import of “industrially significant metals” later today, alongside specific sanctions on another 86 senior figures and companies in Vladimir Putin's military industrial complex. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began last year, countries such as Belgium have opposed plans to ban the country’s diamonds. The UK has previously taken the lead on action against Russian diamonds, sanctioning Alrosa, the state-owned company, and increasing tariffs by an additional 35%. The ban will disrupt an industry worth $4bn in exports in 2021.
An underground bunker has been constructed beneath Russian President Vladimir Putin's Black Sea palace, according to images posted online by the now-defunct construction firm that built it, Metro Style. The complex, which was built in the early 2010s, when Putin was cultivating warm relations with European powers, spans roughly 6,500 sq ft and features concrete bunkers with their own sewage and fresh water supply, alongside an elevator shaft and two tunnels which have exits visible on the cliff face rising up from the sea to the palace. The purpose of the underground complex is unclear, but speculation suggests it has been developed as a form of protection for Putin in the event of a revolution or war.
The Pentagon overestimated the value of weapons sent to Ukraine by $3bn in a recent accounting error. US officials have said that funds for arming Ukraine with lethal equipment will last until October; the overestimation of aid may yet change this calendar, however. The accounting error arose from its incorrectly using the cost of replacing the weaponry sent from military stockpiles with new equipment, rather than the purchase price plus depreciation. The error may have an impact on the timing of further assistance to Ukraine.
Victoria Coates, senior advisor to the US Secretary of Energy under President Trump, is interviewed on The Kevin Roberts Show about effective national security policies. Coates suggests that the US has been the greatest force for good in human history and discusses that the country doesn't need to overthrow dictatorial regimes and impose democracy rather encourage, instruct, and be a good example. Coates also discusses the importance of seizing opportunities, flexibility, and not being wedded to rigid ideologies that cut you off from unorthodox solutions. She also notes the importance of historical perspective when dealing with human beings and the hallmark of being resilient.
Coates mentions the difficulty of figuring out the triangle of policy, communications, and politics and navigating it in a world where communications and information is flowing at such a rapid rate. She mentions that moral clarity, the clarity of vision, and purpose are also infectious, not just for the men and women who have the privilege of working for people like that, but also for the country and a group of free people around the planet who are going to respond to any American president who’s bold and has a clear vision and also has the ability to speak.
The United States must manage its efforts to balance assistance to Ukraine and deterrence against China to ensure both priorities are met, according to a report by The Heritage Foundation. Supporting the self-defense of Ukraine and the defense of Taiwan are both in the interest of the United States. Any form of forced unification of Taiwan by China would entail direct harm to US economic and national security interests, with global consequences. A Russia that emerges from the Ukraine war capable of further territorial aggression could also threaten NATO, non-NATO countries, and international trade routes.
To date, not enough has been done to ensure support for Ukraine does not detract from building a strong deterrence posture against China. The administration and Congress must first acknowledge this and then actively manage US efforts to accomplish both. Effective support for Ukraine will not only weaken the Kremlin’s foreign policy, generally, it will also constrain the resources Moscow has to cement its relationship with China, according to the report. The US should protect its interests in both theaters.
The US government provides defense articles, training, and services to eligible foreign governments through security assistance programs. Since February 24, 2022, the US has provided $36.9bn in security assistance to Ukraine, the report showed. However, policymakers should also understand the tension between the two countries’ foreign military sales (FMS) purchases while working to fix the administrative and capacity problems causing a backlog in FMS deliveries.
