Russian missile strikes on May 16 may have damaged the US-made Patriot missile defence system, which is currently used by Ukraine, according to two anonymous US officials. Though the system has not been destroyed, the two countries are reportedly discussing the best way to repair it without having to remove it from Ukraine. The alleged damage follows a warning from Vladimir Putin to target and destroy anti-missile defence systems supplied by the West to Ukraine. The Patriot system is designed to counter a range of threats, from ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to aircraft.
Russia has been ramping up the number of missiles it fires in order to confuse and overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences. However, according to one US official, this may have worked to Ukraine’s advantage as it forced Russia to go through more of its limited supply of precision weaponry that can home in on targets. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke at a summit of the Council of Europe, where he said that recent battlefield successes showed that Ukraine could achieve anything as long as it was united. These included shooting down 18 Russian missiles overnight, including a volley of six Kinzhals, which Russia claims have hypersonic capabilities.
Reports have emerged of damage to a US-supplied Patriot PAC-2 missile defence system being used by Ukraine against Russian air attacks, following a Russian claim that a Kinzhal missile had destroyed a Patriot missile battery. One US official has reportedly said that there were discussions ongoing with Ukraine over how best to repair the system but that it should not have to be removed from the country. It is not yet clear how much damage has been done but the Patriot is widely seen as one of the most advanced US air defence systems.
Ukraine denied claims that a Russian hypersonic missile destroyed a US-made Patriot missile defence system during an air strike on Kyiv. Russia's defence ministry had claimed on Tuesday that a Patriot system had been destroyed in an overnight air strike on the Ukrainian capital. While two US officials later conceded that a Patriot system probably sustained damage, they stressed it didn't appear to have been destroyed. The Patriot system is one of several sophisticated air defence units supplied to Ukraine by the West after Moscow's invasion last year.
A US Patriot missile system is unlikely to have to be removed from Ukraine, despite being damaged in a recent attack. The Russian defence ministry had claimed that a Kinzhal missile had destroyed the system, but two US officials have said that it likely suffered damage but had not been destroyed. Ukrainian officials say that the attack included drones, cruise missiles and potentially ballistic missiles. A total of 27 missiles were reportedly fired by Russia over 24 hours, including six Kinzhal missiles. The Council of Europe has created a “register of damages” to record Russia’s destruction of Ukraine for future compensation.
Ukraine claims to have shot down six Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, although details of which defence system was used are not disclosed. Last week the US confirmed that Ukraine had used their Patriot missile system to down a Kinzhal missile in a separate incident. The Patriot system is considered one of the most advanced air defence systems in the US arsenal, with a mobile battery comprised of radar, a control station, launch stations, power generator and other support vehicles. The system functions in different ways according to its interceptor, with earlier PAC-2 interceptors and more advanced PAC-3 using hit-to-kill technology. Costing $1bn per battery unit, with missiles costing $690m, the Patriot system is currently used by 18 countries, including the US, and over 240 have been produced by Raytheon Technologies Corp.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on "friendly countries" to provide more air defence systems after at least three people were injured in Russian airstrikes in Kyiv. The president has requested more missiles, fighter jets and air defence systems to protect the country, remarking that while 18 missiles were shot down over Kyiv, Ukraine's territory is "big." A US official speaking to The Washington Post has confirmed that Ukraine's Patriot air defence system, the most advanced of its kind in the US arsenal, was damaged in the attack.
Residents were awoken at 3am by cascading booms that shook windows and set off car alarms as six hypersonic missiles and 18 rockets were fired towards Kyiv. Reports suggest that “some facilities” were damaged. The assault was identified as the “maximum number of missile attacks in the shortest period of time,” said Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv’s city military administration.
The attacks by Russia on Kyiv are part of an ongoing conflict in the Donbas region. This follows an ongoing build up in the numbers of Russian troops forecast to be on the country’s border by January, adding to the tension that has been increasing since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
Ukraine has claimed it downed six Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles in one night, using an air defence system that remains unnamed. However, last week the US military confirmed that Ukraine used the US-made Patriot system to bring down a Kinzhal missile. The Patriot, short for Phased Array Tracking Radar for Intercept on Target, is a theatre-wide surface-to-air missile defence system that has capabilities to shoot down hypersonic missiles at speeds averaging five times the speed of sound. Raytheon Technologies, which built the Patriot, has declined to confirm whether it is also effective in intercepting missiles when they exceed Mach 5.
Ukrainian air defences using US-made Patriot interceptors neutralised a heavy Russian missile attack against Kyiv, with six KH-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched missiles reported to have been stopped by Patriots. However, the Kinzhal missiles are modified air-launched versions of the ground-launched Iskander short-range ballistic missile developed three decades ago, and do not incur the additional hypersonic boost-glide system of manoeuvrable hypersonic descent hypersonic weapons that can be fired atop booster rockets, making them harder to intercept. Therefore, while Patriots can indeed stop Kinzhal missiles, they cannot necessarily intercept swerving-and-jinking weapons. Additionally, Russia has been developing an Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, deployed on Russian ICBMs, capable of descending at Mach 20 and outpacing any interceptors. China is also said to be developing similar weapons.
The last ship containing grains from Ukraine has left the port of Chornomorsk under an agreement known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which permits the safe passage of agricultural exports. The ceasefire is up for renewal on Thursday and has allowed in excess of 30.3 million tonnes of grains to be shipped and has permitted 625,000 tonnes of aid to go to countries including Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Yemen. The Ukraine and Russia are both major suppliers of wheat, barley and sunflower oil, as well as other affordable food products for Asian and African countries. The deal was initially reached in July 2021 and later renewed in March.
The wider conflict in the region continued on 17 May, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting that over 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed as a result of Moscow’s aggression. The number is unverified and caution has been urged with regards overstated official claims from both sides. Meanwhile, European leaders approved a “Register of Damage” to record the damages caused by Russia in Ukraine, with the plan being called the “first, necessary, urgent step” in making Moscow liable for compensation relating to damages. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Sholz said that the register would help to punish “war crimes” and demand “accountability for the damage that Russia inflicts” in Ukraine. The Ukrainian army reported that a US-supplied Patriot air defence system used to deter Russian aerial attacks “is working fine”, despite Moscow’s claim that it had struck the weapon. Ukraine has received support from other coalition nations, including Germany, particularly in terms of military equipment of late.
The UK and the Netherlands have formed an “international coalition” to assist Ukraine in obtaining F-16 fighter jets. During a recent visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Downing Street confirmed the intention to “build a new Ukrainian air force with Nato-standard F-16 jets”. Although the RAF does not have F-16s, nearly 3,000 are in use in 25 countries around the globe, including other Nato members. The international push comes at a time when Ukraine is seeking to strengthen its defences amid a backdrop of renewed tensions with Russia. The Biden administration has declined Ukraine’s request to buy F-16s so far.
Ukrainian air defences using US-made Patriot interceptors neutralised a heavy Russian missile attack against Kyiv, with six KH-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched missiles reported to have been stopped by Patriots. However, the Kinzhal missiles are modified air-launched versions of the ground-launched Iskander short-range ballistic missile developed three decades ago, and do not incur the additional hypersonic boost-glide system of manoeuvrable hypersonic descent hypersonic weapons that can be fired atop booster rockets, making them harder to intercept. Therefore, while Patriots can indeed stop Kinzhal missiles, they cannot necessarily intercept swerving-and-jinking weapons. Additionally, Russia has been developing an Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, deployed on Russian ICBMs, capable of descending at Mach 20 and outpacing any interceptors. China is also said to be developing similar weapons.
Britain has said it will support all countries that want to send F-16 jets to Ukraine, subject to US approval for the transfer of the military technology. It is part of the effort to set up an international coalition with the Dutch and other nations to come to the aid of Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. It was announced amid a web of diplomatic efforts over the invasion of Ukraine, including the extension of a deal with Turkey that would allow the country to export millions of tonnes of grain through the Black Sea, which would otherwise be blocked by Russian warships. China has also sent peace envoys to mediate talks in Russia, Poland, France, and Germany about the conflict.
Air raid alerts have sounded throughout Ukraine while the military has warned of potential missile strikes due to the ongoing conflict with Russia. Several explosions have been reported in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and neighbouring cities, including Darnytskyi and Dnipro. Warning to take cover have been issued across much of the country, including central and the southern regions. Heavy fighting and territorial gains by the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut have been reported, but the mercenary group Wagner, spearheading the assault, has not reported ammunition shortages, according to Serhiy Cherevatyi, a Ukrainian military spokesperson. The Russian brigade group has continued to fire all available weapons as it seeks to gain control of Bakhmut. Paul Kolbe, the Executive Director of the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence has stated that Moscow’s ultimate aim remains annexing the Donbas region of Ukraine, not war by attrition.
Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, has been hit for the ninth time this month by Russian air raids, according to the city's Military Administration. Loud explosions were heard and initial reports indicated that debris may have caused a fire in a non-residential building. There were no immediate reports of casualties. The barrage follows a lull in hostilities and comes ahead of an anticipated Ukrainian “counteroffensive” using Western-backed technology. Earlier this week, advanced Western-defence systems prevented a Russian air attack on the city, with Ukrainian officials claiming they had shot down all missiles aimed at the capital.
Russia launched a barrage of cruise missiles at Ukraine's capital, Kiev, and Odesa after midnight on May 12, according to Ukrainian officials. The country said it had shot down 29 of the 30 missiles. One death was reported from the overnight attacks. The missile strike was seen as an escalation ahead of an anticipated counteroffensive. Most of the ground fighting is stalemated along the main front line in Ukraine's east and south, but both sides are targeting other territory with long-range weapons. Sophisticated Western air defence systems have spared Kiev from the main front line's destruction. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey announced an extension to an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to allow grain exports across the Black Sea, following the country's calls for further clarity and reassurance.
Russia has fired 30 cruise missiles against Ukraine which the country's air defences shot down. One person was killed and two wounded when a missile struck an industrial building in Odesa. The strikes came in the latest nighttime test of Ukrainian air defences, after previous attacks have been repelled by radar systems. Debris fell on two Kyiv districts, starting a fire at a garage complex. Two Russian exploding and two reconnaissance drones were shot down by Ukrainian authorities. The escalation comes ahead of Ukrainian counteroffensive using newly supplied advanced Western weapons, and follows weeks of calm. Russia has denied any involvement in testing Ukrainian defences.
The US has overestimated the value of the weapons it has sent to Ukraine by $3bn as a result of assigning a higher than warranted value on weaponry that was taken from US stocks. This calculation may lead the way for further weaponry to be sent to Kyiv and could delay the Biden administration's need to seek additional funds for Ukraine, amid the country's intensifying debt ceiling fight. Since August 2021, Washington has sent about $21.1bn worth of weaponry to Ukraine across 37 Presidential Drawdown Authority packages, including High Mobility Artillery Rocket System launchers and Javelin anti-tank weapons.
The Pentagon overestimated the value of weapons sent to Ukraine by $3bn in a recent accounting error. US officials have said that funds for arming Ukraine with lethal equipment will last until October; the overestimation of aid may yet change this calendar, however. The accounting error arose from its incorrectly using the cost of replacing the weaponry sent from military stockpiles with new equipment, rather than the purchase price plus depreciation. The error may have an impact on the timing of further assistance to Ukraine.
The Biden administration is reportedly hesitant to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, and has also refused to authorise Western allies training Ukrainian pilots on the aircraft. The decision is at odds with Europe's stance on the matter, with Rishi Sunak announcing the creation of an international coalition of countries that would aim to provide F-16s, and Belgium saying it would train Ukrainian pilots. Washington is concerned over the cost of the aircraft, along with the potential technology loss. The decision on supplying Ukraine with F-16s is up to the White House, with the UK saying the supply "was not a straightforward thing".
An accounting mistake by the US Defense Department has led to the overestimation of the value of ammunition, missiles and other military equipment sent to Ukraine, leaving a $3bn deficit between what was thought to have been delivered and the actual equipment delivered. This accounting mistake could allow an extra $3bn in American-made weapons to be delivered to Ukraine's defense forces in the coming months. The Pentagon officials who spoke to Reuters said the overvaluation was a result of the process for assigning values to weapons being shipped to Ukraine when the Defense Department erroneously calculated figures using the estimated cost to replace the weapons that were being provided from existing US stockpiles.
