China's belligerence on a global scale is becoming more commonplace, especially as it accuses the US of hypocrisy and double standards while responding in kind to Washington's moves. Nations such as China (and Russia) are more likely to challenge or seek to reform institutions that do not put them on an equal footing to the US. The durability of the international order, therefore, depends on whether or not its core institutions, and their architect, the US, can create incentives for China to cooperate with them. When the balance of power in geopolitics shifts, rising and established powers tend to find themselves on a collision course known as the “Thucydides trap.”
This is the situation being played out between the US and China, causing analysts to warn that the outlook for global stability and security is grim. A rancorous administration in Washington is viewed as having declared open season on the rise of China, while in Beijing, Xi Jinping has emerged as the world’s most vocal proponent of globalisation and is also increasingly forceful: a potentially combustible mix. The open question now is how this escalating rivalry will impact the Indo-Pacific along with a global order that many citizens around the world continue to rely on for prosperity and peace.
It should be noted that rising powers always seek to join exclusive clubs that would be diluted by their admission. There is also a risk in conducting international relations without the basics of decorum, which leads to a lack of trust and that, in turn, can lead to very grave consequences.
Global leaders including the US, Japan, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, the EU, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Vietnam and Australia, will attend the G7 summit in the city of Hiroshima on 21-23 May. The meeting is likely to focus on the Ukraine war, increasing Chinese dominance and the threat to Taiwan. Issues surrounding supply chains, economic and energy security will also be discussed. India’s appearance as a developing nation is also set to feature India plans to devote six roundtables to climate, green and sustainable finance, and debt sustainability issues at the summit. President Joe Biden defined this year’s summit as “a pivotal moment for our world and for democracies and the values we represent”.
During 2020 US and partner militaries conducted more than 300 counterterror operations in the Middle East alone, killing nearly 700 ISIS fighters. Despite this, the threat remains; it is estimated that around 30,000 ISIS fighters are imprisoned in Iraq and Syria and could be re-harnessed to rebuild the organisation. Additionally, ISIS terror branches, networks and cells exist outside Iraq and Syria with ties to groups in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, the Philippines and in countries in Africa. It is believed that al-Qaida threat is no longer what it used to be, but there is still concern it will advance its Islamist, anti-West agenda via its affiliates around the world. US policymakers are particularly concerned about East Africa's al-Shabab which has reportedly been killing Americans. The article argues that even amongst concerns of nuclear proliferation and international competition with superpowers such as Russia and China, domestic and regional terrorist groups must also be a priority.
Former National Security Advisor to President George W. Bush, Stephen J. Hadley, will join the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) for a conversation about the evolution of US foreign policy in Asia over the last decade. Topics expected to be covered include diplomatic strategy in Asia, nuclear proliferation in North Korea and competition with China.
A Telegraph poll of over 32,000 readers revealed that 71% of respondents believe the development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is happening too fast. While some readers were optimistic, stating that the technology is a “freedom-enabling technology”, others were more sceptical, with one fearing that AI development could create a new era of highly skilled, highly paid elites and offer fewer employment opportunities for those without specialist, technical skills. Others worried there could be a job loss crisis, impacting particularly on young people.
A group of North Korean defectors who recently fled to South Korea did so due to the country's strict COVID-19 controls, according to South Korea's intelligence agency. The defectors, consisting of nearly 10 people, crossed the border by ship on May 6th. The group reported that they used to watch South Korean TV and admire South Korean society but grew tired of the North Korean regime when social controls became stricter due to COVID-19. The number of North Koreans defecting to South Korea has plummeted in recent years, likely due to Pyongyang's border restrictions during the pandemic.
The Group of Seven (G7) summit in Hiroshima is expected to highlight the Ukraine war, the growing power of China and the threat to Taiwan. Leaders from India, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and Australia will also be attending the summit, which opens today. Discussions will also focus on matters involving supply chains, economic and energy security. The Indian presence at the summit is expected to create a focus on the developing world within the G7, while the recent overtures of Russia and China towards Central Asia are also set to feature prominently. Yesterday, the G7 leaders released a statement ahead of the summit stressing their support for Ukraine which “will not waver”, and detailing “new steps” to be taken to ensure Russia's aggression fails. Sanctions imposed on Russia are also likely to be discussed, as well as their impact on trade of agricultural, medical and humanitarian products.
Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, paid tribute to the victims of Hiroshima and spoke on the importance of disarmament, while also increasing the country's involvement in NATO. Canada appears to be signing on to the extended version of the Cold War, confronting Russia in Europe and joining the U.S-led alliance that is taking on China in Asia. The significance of the Trudeau visit to Seoul that took place this week has little to do with Canada-Korea trade. Rather it is a new front in the reinvigorated Cold War, as every significant country in Asia from China to North Korea will be tied into Canadian security interests, whether the country wants to be involved or not. The most significant development since the Hiroshima bombing is that the great powers have made it easier to touch off a nuclear conflict. This is because NATO’s entire fleet of weaponry is available to every tiny country involved in the Russia-Ukraine war and if even the most minor NATO member is drawn into the war, widespread nuclear warfare becomes a possibility.
Former National Security Advisor to President George W. Bush, Stephen J. Hadley, will join the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) for a conversation about the evolution of US foreign policy in Asia over the last decade. Topics expected to be covered include diplomatic strategy in Asia, nuclear proliferation in North Korea and competition with China.
Russia’s move to restore direct flights between Georgia and itself has sparked concerns regarding the fate of Georgia’s EU candidate status. As EU-official Peter Stano stated, the EU “regrets the decision by Georgia to resume flights to and from Russia,” adding that it “raises concerns about Georgia’s EU path." Demonstrations in Tbilisi also saw protesters reflecting anxieties about returning to Russia’s influence. As reported by Deutsche Welle, despite condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Georgian government has not joined others in imposing sanctions due to their deepening economic ties – which could be risking their future political independence. Critics point to the Georgian ruling party, founded by a former Prime Minster who had made his fortune in Russia, as responsible for deepening relationships with Russia. Georgia’s deepening economic ties comes at the cost of ignoring political risks and forsaking EU membership, despite pro-EU demonstrations by Georgian citizens.
The G7 is holding its annual summit in the Japanese shrine city of Hiroshima where the talks are set to focus on the growing influence of China, the Ukraine crisis and the ongoing threat to Taiwan. G7 leaders, however, are keen to avoid confrontation with China over the issue of its territorial claims that are threatening the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Instead, the leaders are set to extend the promise of G7 cooperation. Alongside the G7 nations, Thailand, Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, Laos, Indonesia, and the Philippines have been invited as guests, symbolising Japan's ongoing interest and focus on Southeast Asia. In addition, India and South Korea, which have previously pressed Japan to address issues related to Japanese Imperial Army’s conscripting of sex slaves for the military during World War II, will also take part, together with the EU.
Leaders from the Group of Seven countries have begun a three-day summit in Japan's Hiroshima, with topics including providing Ukraine with financial support and dealing with China's growing military build-up. Additionally, climate-related action will take centre stage during the meeting, as a result of increasing global concern about the climate crisis. The G7, which comprises no permanent secretariat or legal status, has vowed to isolate Russia and impede its defence industry production, with around 70 entities expected to be blacklisted while over 300 individuals, entities and aircraft will be sanctioned.
Former National Security Advisor to President George W. Bush, Stephen J. Hadley, will join the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) for a conversation about the evolution of US foreign policy in Asia over the last decade. Topics expected to be covered include diplomatic strategy in Asia, nuclear proliferation in North Korea and competition with China.
Leaders of the G7 countries pledged to face Russia’s “illegal, unjustifiable and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine” and reassured their support for Ukraine will “not waver”. The countries agreed to tighten sanctions and export controls targeting Moscow, including restrictions on exports of industrial machinery, tools and technology that could be useful to Russia’s war effort and limiting Russian revenues from trade in metals and diamonds. Meanwhile, G7 leaders also called for a “world without nuclear weapons,” urging Russia, Iran, China and North Korea to cease nuclear escalation and embrace non-proliferation.
The G7 has endorsed the ‘Hiroshima Vision on Nuclear Disarmament’, a new action plan unveiled by Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, which is intended to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons. The G7 leaders have agreed on a series of priorities aimed at reducing global nuclear arsenals, but have not implemented any binding agreement to remove them. They condemned Russia's "dangerous and unacceptable" atomic threats against Ukraine and the acceleration of China's nuclear arsenal. However, International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) claimed the meeting “failed to come up with any concrete proposals” and just produced “a rehash of old non-proliferation measures” that did not address the severity of the current nuclear threat nor the urgency of disarmament. All G7 member countries rely on nuclear weapons for their security and, as result, it is suggested that the countries are limited in their ability to negotiate for disarmament. Despite this, the group has nonetheless suggested practical steps such as increasing the transparency of nuclear capacity and reducing stockpiles, securing nonproliferation, promoting the peaceful use of nuclear agency and continuing not to use atomic weapons.
The Organisation for the Prohibition for Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has failed to offer a road map for the next five years due to differences among member states. The OPCW had wanted an agreement on preventing the re-emergence of chemical weapons, including those in Syria. The watchdog also discovered that Russian nerve agent Novichok was used against both Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018 and Alexei Navalny in Russia last year. Only four countries have not ratified the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention.
Former National Security Advisor to President George W. Bush, Stephen J. Hadley, will join the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) for a conversation about the evolution of US foreign policy in Asia over the last decade. Topics expected to be covered include diplomatic strategy in Asia, nuclear proliferation in North Korea and competition with China.
President Zelensky of Ukraine is trying to lobby support from countries outside of the West, including Saudi Arabia, India, and Japan, to protect itself from further Russian aggression, as beyond NATO, many countries maintain neutrality despite Russia invading Ukraine more than seven years ago. The stance of many of these neutral nations has become more challenging for the US and NATO as Russia, China and other hostile powers have been successful in pulling these wavering countries into their sphere of influence. Increasingly, the importance of creating “a more coherent and robust strategy for uniting the democracies of the world behind a common mission, particularly in light of the rise of China” is being recognised.
Former National Security Advisor to President George W. Bush, Stephen J. Hadley, will join the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) for a conversation about the evolution of US foreign policy in Asia over the last decade. Topics expected to be covered include diplomatic strategy in Asia, nuclear proliferation in North Korea and competition with China.
Leaders from the G7 countries will release a statement at their annual meeting in Japan calling for a reduction in trade with China, though also pledging to build “constructive and stable relations”. The statement will sit alongside a pledge of support for Ukraine, both in terms of budget and the release of military equipment, as the group prepares to intensify sanctions against Russia following its 2014 invasion of Ukraine. In addition, the G7 leaders will issue a statement calling for a world free of nuclear weapons and urging countries including Russia, North Korea, China and Iran to embrace non-proliferation.
