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将制造业工作从中国带回美国的 "再外包 "运动在很大程度上是无效的,而将生产从中国转移到墨西哥和加拿大的相关 "近外包 "计划也尚未产生红利。
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根据布鲁金斯学会的一份报告,尽管四年前对中国产品征收25%的关税,但美中贸易的数量和价值只发生了轻微变化。
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美中之间的经济冲突与其说是贸易战,不如说是科技战,一些特定的高科技类别受到很大影响,而整体贸易则继续保持高水平。
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供应链问题使华盛顿和北京之间的经济竞争更加尖锐,随着关系的恶化,又增加了许多其他的刺激因素。
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近年来,在相对较少的出口制造业中,尤其是半导体行业,已经从中国大幅转移到了东南亚,特别是越南。
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尽管一些美国立法者和企业呼吁美中贸易流 “脱钩”,但说起来容易做起来难,官僚主义、协调不足和较高的成本阻碍了向美国、加拿大和墨西哥的广泛近岸外包。
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中国在物流、人力资本、专业化和知识产权保护方面比许多竞争对手(包括东南亚国家、印度和墨西哥)要好。
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华盛顿和其他西方国家首都对中国越来越不信任,这也刺激了国家安全问题,这与一些重要的战略商品有关。
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非常复杂的供应链和国家安全的脆弱性之间的交集比以往任何时候都要强烈。
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The “reshoring” campaign to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US from China is largely ineffective, and the related “nearshoring” bid to shift production to Mexico and Canada away from China has yet to yield dividends.
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Despite 25% tariffs imposed on Chinese products four years ago, the volume and value of US-China trade has only shifted slightly, according to a report by the Brookings Institution.
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The economic conflict between the US and China is more of a tech war than a trade war, with a few specific hi-tech categories affected a lot, while overall trade has continued at a high level.
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Supply-chain concerns have sharpened the economic rivalry between Washington and Beijing, adding to the many other irritants as relations have soured.
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Of the relatively few export manufacturing sectors that have witnessed a significant shift away from China in recent years, notably semiconductors, most have moved to Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam.
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Although some American lawmakers and corporations call for a US-China “decoupling” of trade flows, this is easier said than done, with bureaucracy, inadequate coordination, and higher costs impeding broad-based nearshoring to the US, Canada, and Mexico.
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China has better logistics, human capital, specialization, and intellectual property protection than many of its rivals, including Southeast Asian countries, India, and Mexico.
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Growing distrust of China in Washington and other Western capitals has also spurred national security concerns, tied to several vital strategic commodities.
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The intersection between very complex supply chains and national security vulnerability is stronger than it has ever been.
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