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习近平主席和普京总统宣布的中俄伙伴关系可能不会有预期的好处,因为中国在战略和经济方面都面临损失。
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认为中国从俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略中获得了战略优势的论点是有缺陷的,因为一个被削弱的俄罗斯不可能维持一场长期的战争,而美国也不可能再为其分心。
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这场战争对中国与欧洲的关系造成了不可弥补的损害,因为欧洲国家认为中国是俄罗斯侵略的同谋,而欧盟则向美国靠拢,离中国更远。
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俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵也破坏了中国在台湾问题上的立场,由于普京的侵略,对中国无端攻击台湾岛的担忧升级,激发了美国在军事和外交上支持台湾的努力,并促使日本将军事开支翻倍。
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欧洲对中国立场的转变和中国大陆与台湾之间的战争前景为西方与中国的 "经济脱钩 "注入了紧迫而强大的动力,导致惊恐的企业高管减少对大陆供应链的依赖。
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习近平别无选择,只能坚持与普京在一起,但现在放弃普京可能对修补与欧洲的关系产生边际效应,并加速普京在乌克兰的失败,使美国能够更快地将注意力集中在中国。
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习近平陷入了战略困境,任凭事态发展,他曾经的大手笔–中俄伙伴关系看起来越来越像一场失败的赌注。
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The Sino-Russian partnership declared by President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin may not have the expected benefits as China faces losses in strategic and economic aspects.
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Arguments that China has gained strategic advantages from Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine are flawed as a weakened Russia is unlikely to sustain a long war, and the US is unlikely to be distracted by it again.
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The war has caused irreparable damage to China’s ties with Europe, as European nations see China as complicit in Russia’s aggression, and the EU moves closer to the US and farther away from China.
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also undermined China’s position on Taiwan, with fears of an unprovoked Chinese attack on the island escalating due to Putin’s aggression, energizing US efforts to bolster Taiwan militarily and diplomatically, and prompting Japan to double military spending.
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The shift in Europe’s stance towards China and the prospect of a war between mainland China and Taiwan has injected an urgent and powerful momentum into the West’s “economic decoupling” with China, leading alarmed corporate executives to reduce their dependence on mainland-based supply chains.
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Xi has no alternative but to stick with Putin, but abandoning him now could have a marginal effect in patching up ties with Europe and accelerate Putin’s defeat in Ukraine, allowing the US to concentrate its undivided attention on China sooner.
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Xi is trapped in a strategic dilemma, at the mercy of events, and his erstwhile masterstroke of the Sino-Russian partnership is looking more and more like a losing bet.