With Ukraine's economy and consumer spending slumping dramatically, many businesses are turning to new markets, particularly those in Poland and Eastern Europe. Almost 5 million Ukrainians have been registered as leaving to reside in Europe, including over 1.5 million in Poland. Some firms are also looking towards Latvia and the Czech Republic, whilst others have acquired foreign brands to help tap into existing markets as well as expand in new ones, and two businesses are investing in production expansion in Ukraine and Lithuania to back up a forecasted 60-70% increase in exports by 2028.
A growing number of Republicans in Congress are opposing US aid to Ukraine, which they argue is a poor use of taxpayers' money and that Kiev should battle Russia alone. However, Ukraine remains geopolitically significant, and President Joe Biden has increased military aid to the country by a further $1.2bn. Still, the stance of many Republicans suggesting the US should not be involved in helping an ally may be viewed askance by Europeans, depending on how far such signals are pursued. One particularly vocal critic of Ukraine assistance is Republican congressman, JD Vance. Nonetheless, so far, support for Kiev has remained largely strong on Capitol Hill, even if oversight of the spending has increased.
Newcastle United will need a stronger squad to cope with their Europa League campaign next year warns manager Eddie Howe, as the club looks set for Champions League qualification. The plan is reportedly to sign four or five new players to the squad over the summer, including RB Leipzig’s Dominik Szoboszlai. Szoboszlai is just one of many potential new signings including Leicester City's James Maddison, Marcus Thuram from Borussia Monchengladbach and Nice's Khephren Thuram. Howe urged management to think “long and hard” over Newcastle’s strategy for building a team to compete in the Premier League and Europe.
Israel's minister of diaspora affairs, Amichai Chikli, has defended billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk over a tweet comparing George Soros, the Hungarian-born Holocaust survivor and liberal philanthropist and Soros to a Marvel comic book villain. Days earlier, Israel’s foreign ministry had condemned Musk's tweet, which it said “reeked of antisemitism”. Chikli tweeted that criticism of Soros, who finances "the most hostile organisations to the Jewish people and the state of Israel is anything but antisemitism". Antisemitic posts and the phrase “The Jews” were trending on Twitter following Musk's original comment.
Protests have been taking place in Budapest against new legislation that would remove public servant statues from teachers, with thousands marching for better salaries and working conditions. The move follows an increase in public protests in Hungary against conservative nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, with many criticising the government's efforts to curtail independent media, academic freedom, and migrant and LGBT rights. The inflation rate, running at 24%, has also affected teacher wages. Orban's government has argued that the bill aims to improve education standards.
Investors are choosing emerging market local currency bonds over dollar assets, as inflation drops and attractive yield rates are offered. From January to April, emerging market hard currency bond funds were hit with a net withdrawal of $2.65bn, while $5.23bn was invested in local currency bond funds. According to fund flow data provider EPFR Global, this year JPMorgan’s emerging market benchmark for local currency government bonds has delivered a 6.8% total return - more than three times its hard currency counterpart.
On Armed Forces Day in the US, it is appropriate that British-American collaboration in war should be celebrated. The relationship began in 1859 with the US and the UK fighting together in the second Opium War. The partnership was active across the battlefields of the two World Wars. During WWII, British and American commanders became so united that they ran their forces as if they were both fighting for the same country. The Falklands War saw the UK particularly relying on US naval support and intelligence assistance to help them recapture the islands from Argentina. During the first Gulf War in 1991, the British Army initially relied heavily on the US Marine Corps for life support, as they did in Bosnia and Iraq and continue to do so in Afghanistan and Syria.
Pope Francis has tasked Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, head of the Italian bishops' conference, with leading a peace mission to help end the war in Ukraine. Zuppi will try to meet separately with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The former hails from the Sant'Egidio Community, which brokered a deal that ended the civil war in Mozambique in 1992. Zelenskiy appeared to downplay the possibility of a papal mediation, saying on Italian television that "we do not need mediators, we need a just peace."
Hong Kong's Vivian Kong Man-wai just missed winning back-to-back épée titles for the first time in her career after losing 14-13 to South Korean fencer Sera Song at the World Cup in the United Arab Emirates. Kong returned to the top of the rankings two weeks ago but was unable to displace the reigning world champion. Nonetheless, Kong — who came second — had survived a stern test from Xiao Ruien of Canada, a familiar foe in the semi-finals, reaching back-to-back finals for the first time since January 2019.
The Vatican has confirmed that Pope Francis has appointed Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, who is close to the pontiff, to undertake a mission aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine and paving the way for a sustainable peace accord. The Vatican gave no indication of whether this involved mediation with Russia. The Pope has spoken out repeatedly on the war but has not accused Russian President Vladimir Putin directly, instead warning against weaponisation of the conflict.
Food prices in the EU have risen 16.6% YoY, according to Eurostat, despite lower energy prices easing overall price pressures. This has prompted both retailers and governments to adopt ever more unconventional tactics, such as price controls, to shield the public against spiralling prices, constitute for one of the worst cost of living crisis in a generation. While some price rises may be warranted, some are not, leading the Bureau Européen des Unions de Consommateurs who represent 46 consumer organisations, to urge governments to adopt strong policies to protect consumers.
Austria is implementing increased checks and tightening controls at its border with Hungary following Hungary's decision to release thousands of people convicted of people smuggling from prison. Budapest is releasing foreigners serving sentences for human trafficking on the condition that they leave Hungary within 72 hours. The Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orban, has been widely criticised for his populist stance, particularly in relation to the refugee crisis.
The United States has continued their perfect record at the ice hockey world championship with a 9-0 victory against France, led by Cutter Gauthier's hat trick. The win puts the US at the top of Group A with six wins from six games. Meanwhile, in Group B, Switzerland beat the Czech Republic 4-2 to take the lead with six victories from six games, and Slovakia defeated Slovenia 1-0 to remain in contention for advancing to the knockout stage.
Various sporting events on Sunday saw the Vegas Golden Knights beat the Dallas Stars 3-2 in overtime in the NHL Western Conference Final, putting the Knights 2-0 up in the series. The Miami Heat also extended their lead against the Boston Celtics, going 3-0 up in the NBA Eastern Conference Finals with 128 points to Boston's 102. Meanwhile, in Major League Baseball, the New York Yankees beat the Cincinnati Reds 4-1, and the San Diego Padres beat the Boston Red Sox 7-0.
The Group of Seven (G7) announced a 1,600-word statement on economic security covering trade-distorting subsidies, cybertheft, and more. The statement indicated the G7 would use early warnings and rapid information sharing and explore "co-ordinated responses" to counter economic coercion, according to the FT's Alan Beattie. However, further action will not be automatic and leaves participating countries to uphold their "respective legal systems" to counter economic coercion. The announcement serves as a rhetorical commitment to support countries affected by coercive trade blockades. Nevertheless, Australia's response to Chinese trade embargoes may be an effective strategy as companies' primary tactic was to adjust and not make noise or show weakness.
Russia's seaborne crude oil exports to China and India continue to rise and show no sign of the output cuts promised by the country in March, in response to Western sanctions and limits on oil price exports. Four-week average seaborne shipments rose for a sixth straight week to 4 million barrels a day, and flows are now up 15% since the start of April. Last week, Putin reiterated Russia's commitment to the OPEC+ producer group and the output cuts agreement, saying that all actions, including voluntary production cuts, are connected to the need to support global market prices. However, analysts have suggested that Russia is using stockpiles to maintain its current level of exports.
It is feared that Russia’s reliance on a shadow fleet of ageing tankers to transport its oil to China and India may be becoming increasingly problematic, as a Chinese port increases checks on older vessels, causing some cargoes to get held up and creating concerns around this group of vessels. A Moscow-based thinktank, cited by the FT, claims that Russia’s long-haul destinations to Asia are more costly and time-consuming than its previous northern European short-haul routes, however. Russia’s exports to northern European countries fell to zero in the four weeks to 19 May.
National conservatism may have some ideas on how politicians can effectively combat problems of success, but many of those ideas are flawed, writes Stephen Bush in the Financial Times. People in rich countries tend to be more isolated, depressed or anxious and have fewer children than their peers in poorer countries. One conservative response is to promote constitutional, cultural and religious traditions. Although this response may provide some aid to common social problems, it is still hard to address these issues in light of various obstacles to change. National conservatism is also bad policy, Bush notes, as conservative policies often do not necessarily help people find solutions to certain challenges. Hungary, an example of national conservatism, has a population growth rate below replacement, despite providing incentives for families with children. Additionally, austerity policies in Greece only made their economic problems worse. Globally, solutions to social issues should be addressed based on the specific culture of the nation, and should not be solved by conservative politics alone.
The EU and Apple are appearing in front of the European Court of Justice today, with officials defending the revocation of Apple's license to trade in Ireland in 2016. The Commission argued the company exploited Irish corporation tax laws to avoid paying billions of euros in taxes between 2003 and 2014. In 2020, the EU General Court overturned the Commission's case, stating that the EU had failed to show Apple had gained an illegal advantage, but this case is now being appealed. The hearing is expected to last three days with a verdict in around three to six months.
The European Union's (EU) use of the Temporary Protection Directive for the first time to cope with Ukrainian refugees from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in March 2022 could provide lessons for dealing with contentious refugee issues amidst the current refugee crisis. The directive grants temporary protection whereby refugees receive immediate access to housing, welfare, healthcare and education, almost the same as local nationals, and fast-tracks residency rights by waiving the need to examine applications individually, thus avoiding bottlenecks, overwhelmed asylum systems and deterrent conditions. Despite largely being regarded as a success, it has led to a two-tier system. Some Member States feared activating temporary protection in other cases would attract more migrants to Europe. Further, geography plays a significant role in migrant policy debates, with countries of origin having different perspectives on border countries versus destination countries, which tend to be preferred by refugees.
On Monday, the Florida Panthers beat the Carolina Hurricanes 1-0 in Game 3 of the NHL Eastern Conference Final, taking a 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. In the NBA, the Denver Nuggets swept past the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals with a 113-111 victory. In the MLB, there were several games in both the American League and National League, including victories for the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, and Los Angeles Dodgers. In CFL preseason action, the Calgary Stampeders beat the Edmonton Eskimos 29-24. And, in the World Men's Hockey Championship, Norway defeated Canada 3-2 in a shootout, while Sweden beat Denmark 4-1.
