GDP (6do encyclopedia)



Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of a country’s economic performance. It is the total value of all final goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a given time period, usually a year. GDP provides a snapshot of a country’s economic activity and is often used as an indicator of a country’s economic growth and development.

Calculating GDP

GDP is calculated using the expenditure approach, which measures the total amount spent on goods and services in an economy. The expenditure approach identifies four components of GDP: consumption, investment, government spending and net exports.

Consumption includes spending by households on goods and services, such as food, clothing, housing, and entertainment. Investment includes spending by businesses on capital goods and other assets, such as buildings and equipment, as well as spending on research and development. Government spending includes all government expenditures on goods and services, such as defense, education, and infrastructure. Finally, net exports are the difference between exports (goods and services sold to other countries) and imports (goods and services bought from other countries).

GDP can also be calculated using the income approach, which measures the total income earned by individuals and businesses for producing goods and services in an economy. The income approach identifies three components of GDP: wages and salaries, profits earned by businesses, and the rental income earned on land and buildings.

Real vs. Nominal GDP

GDP can be measured in both nominal and real terms. Nominal GDP measures the monetary value of all final goods and services produced in an economy at current market prices. Real GDP, on the other hand, adjusts nominal GDP for inflation. This adjustment allows for a more accurate comparison of economic output over time.

For example, if nominal GDP in 2020 was $20 trillion and nominal GDP in 2010 was $15 trillion, it might appear that the economy grew by 33% over the decade. However, if inflation over that same period was 20%, then real GDP in 2020 would be $16 trillion ($20 trillion adjusted for inflation), and real GDP in 2010 would be $12.5 trillion ($15 trillion adjusted for inflation). This shows that the economy only grew by 28% over the decade (from $12.5 trillion to $16 trillion).

Limitations of GDP

While GDP is an important measure of economic performance, it has certain limitations. First, GDP only measures the market value of final goods and services, which means that it does not take into account non-market transactions, such as unpaid household work or volunteer work. This can lead to an underestimate of a country’s economic activity and well-being.

Second, GDP does not account for income inequality or the distribution of wealth within a country. A country with a high GDP may still have significant poverty and income inequality.

Finally, GDP does not take into account the environmental impact of economic activity. A country may have a high GDP, but if that growth is based on unsustainable practices, it may experience significant environmental damage and long-term economic costs.

GDP and Economic Policy

Despite its limitations, GDP is a key indicator used by policymakers to guide economic policy. A high GDP is generally seen as a sign of a healthy economy, and policymakers may use various tools, such as monetary policy and fiscal policy, to stimulate economic growth and increase GDP.

Monetary policy involves adjusting interest rates and the money supply to influence spending and investment. Fiscal policy involves government spending and taxation policies to influence economic activity.

However, policymakers must be mindful of the limitations of GDP and the potential negative consequences of pursuing GDP growth at all costs. A focus on maximizing GDP may lead to unsustainable economic practices, income inequality, and environmental degradation.

Conclusion

GDP is an important measure of a country’s economic performance. It provides a snapshot of economic activity and is often used as an indicator of economic growth and development. However, GDP has certain limitations, such as not accounting for non-market transactions, income inequality, and environmental impact. Policymakers must be mindful of these limitations and use GDP as one of many indicators when guiding economic policy.


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Abu Dhabi's ADGM financial centre to expand by ten times

Reuters

23-05-08 08:37


The Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) financial free zone is set to expand by ten times its existing area, in order to secure its position as the UAE's main financial hub and offer increased competition to the growing economic powerhouse, Saudi Arabia. With the addition of Al-Reem to its existing base on Al-Maryah island, the district will become one of the largest financial centres in the world at 1,438 hectares. By 2031, Abu Dhabi seeks to boost non-oil exports by 143% to $49bn, with non-oil sectors already comprising half of its 2022 real GDP.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/abu-dhabis-adgm-financial-centre-expand-by-ten-times-2023-05-08/
Are we sleepwalking into a prolonged global recession?

Japan Times

23-05-08 08:00


Global institutions are concerned about a prolonged worldwide recession amid fears of slowed global economic growth. Reports predict that global GDP growth will stop growing at 2% this year, rising to 3% in 2024, before dropping to 2.2% around 2030, much lower than the average rate of 3.5% in the 2000s. IMF's latest World Economic Outlook warns of very low growth, increased risks and rocky recovery that may damage countries heavily. OECD's predictions are slightly more pessimistic, asserting that pre-pandemic recovery in China and India will offset sluggish progress in Japan, the US and Europe. With increasing Sino-American relationship conflicts, former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers anticipates a 70% chance of a recession in America. The current economic slowdown, coupled with the looming bifurcation of global supply chains, has deepened concerns, despite March's Fed injection of $300bn into liquidity to stabilise the financial system.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2023/05/08/commentary/world-commentary/sleepwalking-prolonged-global-recession/
German industrial output slumps, recession fears rise

Reuters

23-05-08 06:57


German industrial production fell 3.4% in March, missing analysts' expected 1.3% drop, with the weak performance blamed in part on certain sectors of the automotive industry. The country's industrial orders also fell by 10.7% in the same month and retail sales and exports also dropped, causing speculation that GDP could be adjusted downwards, possibly into recessionary territory.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-industrial-output-drops-34-march-2023-05-08/
Why Buffett prefers cash

Financial Times

23-05-08 06:19


Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway sold $13.3bn in stocks and bought just $2.9bn in Q1 2022, signalling the famed investor saw little appeal in the volatile US equity market. Buffett and his team spent $4.4bn on buybacks and a further $8.2bn on increasing its stake in Pilot, a family-controlled chain of truck stops. Meanwhile, Berkshire remains awash with cash; it has $150bn in cash and short-term bonds on hand, meaning it could outright buy either Goldman Sachs or Lockheed Martin. That a company with so much cash is a net seller of stocks, even in the wake of a market sell-off, should be noted. Veteran Buffett-watchers know he's moaned for years about the lack of places to put his company's money at scale. His Vice-Chairman also recently pointed to high interest rates and a crowded field of investors chasing bargains and looking for companies with inefficiencies.

https://www.ft.com/content/7cd95541-2382-41ac-a251-00feed68f9d8
China's exports seen rising in April but at slower pace, outlook challenging - Reuters poll

Reuters

23-05-08 05:29


China's exports are expected to have risen in April by 8% year-on-year, following an unexpected surge of 14.8% in March; imports are expected to forecast no growth, similar to the previous month. While China still has unfulfilled orders after last year's COVID-19 disruptions, slowing global growth is darkening the outlook with many of China's trade partners on the brink of recession. Additionally, a recent official manufacturing purchasing managers' index report showed new export orders contracting sharply, underlining the challenge facing Chinese policymakers and businesses hoping for a robust post-COVID-19 recovery.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-export-seen-rising-april-slower-pace-outlook-challenging-2023-05-08/
Morning Bid: ASIA Slump or recovery in China?

Reuters

23-05-15 21:48


Investors are to receive several key pieces of economic data from China that will give them clarity on whether their fears regarding Asia's largest economy are justified. If sales, urban investment and industrial production come in weaker than expected and consensus forecasts indicate weak rebounds from the previous month, the China bears will temporarily come to the fore. On a broader front, Wall Street saw modest gains despite continued deadlock in US debt ceiling negotiations.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-view-asia-graphic-pix-2023-05-15/
A barbecue frenzy is gripping China. Can street food revive the economy?

CNN

23-05-16 01:34


China is set to allow street peddlers to operate in many of its cities to try to revitalise the economy and tackle youth unemployment, which stood at 19.6% in March and is expected to worsen with a record 11.6 million college students expected to graduate this year. Several cities relaxed their rules on street selling this year, following on from a viral sensation featuring an outdoor barbecue in Zibo, a little-known city in China's Shandong province. CNBC said the trend revealed the Chinese leadership's struggle to tackle the country's economic challenges. Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the SOAS University of London said: "It does look like the Chinese leadership cannot find better ways to create employment and thus maintain stability and order than encouraging young people to be street vendors. For workers or graduates with skills for the digital era, taking on street vending is a sign of desperation rather than creative thinking."

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/15/economy/china-zibo-bbq-economy-intl-hnk/index.html
Auto, mining stocks drag European shares lower ahead of data

Reuters

23-05-16 07:37


European shares fell on Tuesday as weak data from China raised concerns about an economic slowdown and investors awaited further economic data for the eurozone. The pan-European STOXX 600 index slipped 0.2%. Automakers and miners suffered the biggest losses. Telecoms also declined, with Telecom Italia falling 4.6% after reports indicated the country's state lender may drop its €19.3bn ($21bn) offer for the company's landline network. Vodafone, meanwhile, fell 3.9% after new chief executive Margherita Della Valle said she will cut 11,000 jobs over three years.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/auto-mining-stocks-drag-european-shares-lower-ahead-data-2023-05-16/
And the president most to blame for the national debt problem is …

Washington Post

23-05-16 07:00


US President Joe Biden has blamed his predecessor Donald Trump for a 40% increase in the national debt during his administration. The national debt totaled nearly $20tn when Trump took office in 2017, and was more than $27.8tn when he left. Analysts say that while numbers can be misleading, Trump can be held partly responsible since $4.3tn of the increase came in the last 10 months of his presidency, when massive government spending was necessary to cope with the pandemic’s economic impact. Charles Blahous, an economist who formerly advised President George W. Bush, has determined that two-thirds of the nation’s long-term fiscal imbalance is actually due to policy choices more than 50 years old.

Biden has criticized the tax cut passed in 2017 and signed into law by Trump as being skewed towards the wealthy and large corporations. While the cut has not yet reduced revenue by $2tn, as claimed by Biden, Trump’s elimination of two streams of revenue introduced by Obama to finance the Affordable Care Act will result in 7.6% of America’s future fiscal imbalance, according to Blahous. In contrast, Blahous cites Lyndon B. Johnson as the president most responsible for his share of the fiscal gap (29.7%) due to his enactment of Medicare and Medicaid in the mid-1960s.

Blahous suggests that Congress struggles to discern the effects of individual policies on the economy over a 50-year period, making the evaluation of the effectiveness of policies difficult. Social programs such as Social Security and Medicare are popular and have helped reduce poverty among the elderly, but their future costs could be unsustainable without new congressional legislation. On this subject, Biden has noted the importance of investing in social programs, particularly in low-income children, since such policies have been shown to be cost-effective in the long run.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/05/16/president-most-blame-spiraling-national-debt-is/

Analysis: 'Magic moment' for Italian bonds as foreign interest revives

Reuters

23-05-16 06:04


International investors are said to be reversing a decade of pulling out of Italian government bonds, according to data from the country’s central bank. Analysts suggest firmer-than-expected economic growth, declining public debt, and the prospect of political stability under Giorgia Meloni's government are beginning to lure foreign investors in. Italy's falling foreign holdings have been a concern for policymakers since the 2008 financial crisis. However, the country may be benefitting from a more positive attitude towards Italy from foreign investors after some global central bank hiked rates less aggressively following US banking turmoil, say some experts.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/magic-moment-italian-bonds-foreign-interest-revives-2023-05-16/
US debt woes could trigger a return to favour for fund manager specialising in emerging markets

Telegraph

23-05-16 06:00


Emerging markets-focused asset manager Ashmore is being tipped to return to favour, with a share price currently languishing at 234.4p, compared to 2020's peak of 570p and a peak of investments under management of $94.4bn in June 2021. Factors that dragged Ashmore's shares down include: a trend towards growth and technology rather than emerging markets; economic uncertainty and the Ukrainian conflict damping sentiment; and Ashmore's own investments performing below customers' expectations. However, a return to favour for emerging markets, plus scarcity in the debt market, could be a catalyst for Ashmore and the areas in which it invests, according to Questor.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/us-debt-woes-could-trigger-a-return-to-favour-for-fund/
Morning Bid: Europe has a data fest, and growth worries

Reuters

23-05-16 05:07


Tuesday sees a busy day for European markets with preliminary growth data for the eurozone, Italian inflation, jobless numbers for the UK and the German ZEW survey on economic sentiment due to be released. Analysts expect tepid eurozone GDP numbers, while the German economy will be in the spotlight, as the situation was seen as relatively negative last month. With a June rate rise by the European Central Bank looking likely, UK labour market data will also be examined to get insight into headline pay growth. Meanwhile, the US faces its usual drawn-out debt ceiling debate.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2023-05-16/
German economic growth to remain muted in near term - IMF

Reuters

23-05-16 11:39


The German economy will continue to experience muted growth in the near term, according to a country report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF cited tighter financial conditions and an energy price shock as concerns, forecasting growth in Germany's gross domestic product to stay near zero in 2023 and average GDP growth to be less than 1% over the longer term. To support disinflation, the IMF recommended a moderate tightening of the fiscal instance in 2023. Over the medium term, the IMF said Germany may need to create more fiscal room for investment in its future.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-economic-growth-remain-muted-near-term-imf-2023-05-16/
The massive potential of clean power in Alberta and Saskatchewan

The Globe and Mail

23-05-16 11:00


Alberta has achieved its 2030 target of transitioning away from coal power to sustainable energy sources five years early. Net zero emissions from Canadian electricity sources are targeted for 2035, by which time the province of Alberta, which has the country’s largest oil reserves, aims to rely on renewable energy for power production. The announcement came as premiers of the Prairie provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, rejected the 2035 target in remarks in May 2021. Critics claim the deadline could result in energy costs spiking by as much as 40%.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-the-massive-potential-of-clean-power-in-alberta-and-saskatchewan/
Shortlisted Donner Prize authors on who they would most like to read their book

The Globe and Mail

23-05-16 11:00


To celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Donner Prize, which recognises books by Canadian authors on public policy, the grand prize has increased by CAD 10,000 ($7,948) to CAD 60,000. The five shortlisted authors were each asked by The Globe and Mail which person in a position to influence public policy they would most like to read their book. The prize will be presented at a gala dinner in Toronto.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/books/article-shortlisted-donner-prize-authors-on-who-they-would-most-like-to-read/
Scientists’ AMR warning over government’s new ‘pharmacy-first’ policy – letter

Telegraph

23-05-16 10:44


A group of UK scientists and healthcare providers has cautioned the government against a proposal to empower community pharmacists to prescribe common medications such as antibiotics. Unless the initiative is properly implemented with attention given to antibiotic resistance, it could generate unanticipated consequences reversing the effects, warn the scientists in a joint letter addressed to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In the letter, scientists propose the use of diagnostic tests combined with patient symptoms to make better prescription decisions, thereby avoiding inappropriate antibiotic use, rising antibiotic resistance and increasing the burden on the NHS.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/scientists-amr-warning-government-pharmacy-first-policy/
Denmark aims for closer Nordic security cooperation in new strategy

Reuters

23-05-16 10:35


Denmark is to strengthen defence ties with other Nordic countries in a bid to counteract the perceived threat from Russia in the Baltic Sea region and to safeguard critical infrastructure. The new foreign and security policy strategy calls for more joint military exercises and coordinated defence plans with neighbours, as well as developing a unified Nordic air defence. A NATO member since 1949, Denmark voted last year to join the European Union’s defence policy, with the new strategy underlining the need to increase Denmark’s defence spending to meet NATO’s target of 2% of GDP by 2030.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/denmark-aims-closer-nordic-security-cooperation-new-strategy-2023-05-16/
Can the West win over the rest of the world?

Economist

23-05-16 13:44


The G7, despite being labelled "outdated" by US President Donald Trump in 2017, has become a forum for dealing with the Ukrainian crisis and imposing sanctions against Russia, a new sense of purpose for the group amid a deteriorating world order. The UK and Japan have now made the case for rallying the group to support a “rules-based international order” that will provide more stability in the war-torn regions of Asia and Africa while also countering China's economic influence. While Trump refused to sign the communiqué from the last G7 summit in Canada, President Biden has confirmed that the US will "remain committed to multilateralism" and will want to work together with Japan. During a meeting in Tokyo at the end of March, foreign ministers for each country issued a harsh critique of China’s human rights behaviour, a diplomatic move made by Japan to seize on the shift in attitude of the US and the UK towards China in order to foster renewed support among the democratic nations of the world. The Japanese prime minister, Kishida Fumio, has invited India to the G7 summit in the hope of building bridges with the developing world.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/05/16/can-the-west-win-over-the-rest-of-the-world
Israel economy grows 2.5% in Q1, likely clinches another rate hike

Reuters

23-05-16 13:44


Israel's economy grew an annualized 2.5% in Q1 2023 from the previous quarter, less than in Q4 2022 when it grew 5.3%, but more than expected. Due to strong industrial investment and high inflation, however, the GDP growth is expected to put pressure on policymakers and push them to rein in rising prices, says Jonathan Katz, chief economist at Leader Capital Markets. The Bank of Israel is set to decide on interest rates on 22 May. Data on Monday showed inflation at 5% in April, compared with an anticipated 4.7%.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-economy-grows-25-q1-likely-clinches-another-rate-hike-2023-05-16/