China's President Xi Jinping is meeting with Central Asian heads of state in Xian for one-to-one discussions. The leaders will meet again on Friday for the first in-person gathering of the six leaders. A key focus is likely to be a regional pact with Beijing, which will pave the way for greater economic and political cooperation between China and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. This is part of China's efforts to expand trade, particularly in oil and uranium and food, as well as increasing security in the Central Asia region. Two-way trade between China and Central Asia hit a record $70bn last year.
Police in Dalian, China have arrested a woman for posting "inappropriate" comments about the military on social media after she defended a comedian's joke about a military slogan used by the country's President, Xi Jinping. Comedian Li Haoshi was suspended and the company that represents him, Shanghai Xiaoguo Culture Media, was fined $1.9m for an inappropriate joke on his talk show that included an obscene adaptation of a well-known military slogan. China issued a law in 2021 criminalising insults against its military, resulting in a hard line for attacks on the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The backlash has also had an impact on China's performance industry: at least two comedy club operators have cancelled some shows.
China says Ukraine envoy met with Zelenskyy during talks in Kyiv
The Toronto Star
23-05-18 09:13
China's special envoy Li Hui has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss ways to resolve the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Li visited Kiev over two days and met with Ukraine's foreign minister to discuss a "stable and just peace based on respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine". Zelenskyy and Chinese leader Xi Jinping previously spoke over the phone. China has proposed its own peace plan in response to the 15-month-long conflict, in which Russian President Vladimir Putin must withdraw his forces. Ukraine has repeatedly emphasised that it will not entertain any proposal related to the loss or freezing of territorial conflict. Despite China's claim of positioning as a mediator, Beijing has often come across as siding with Moscow both politically and economically.
From Ukraine war to China’s rising power: 5 reasons this G7 matters
CNN
23-05-18 08:48
The leaders of the world’s most advanced democracies will meet in Hiroshima today to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and emerging threats from China. The meeting’s location has placed nuclear arms at the top of the agenda, with the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum looming close by. The museum reminds visitors of the risks of nuclear war with dozens of exhibits, including timepieces stopped at 8.16am, the exact timing of the atomic bomb that was dropped on the city in August 1945 by a US Army Air Force B-29 bomber. Global risk monitors, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, states that the Doomsday Clock, an annual indicator of how close the world is to nuclear disaster, now stands at 90 seconds to midnight, an unprecedentedly dangerous rating; Russia’s war on Ukraine is cited as a major cause, together with Chinese weapons building, and a North Korea testing nuclear capable missiles.
China woos Central Asia as Ukraine war weakens Russian influence
CNN
23-05-18 07:21
Leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, are meeting in Xi’an, China, to discuss trade, regional stability and security. It is the first in-person meeting of the Central Asian heads of state together with China since the establishment of diplomatic relations after the fall of the Soviet Union. China hopes to expand its influence over the region, which has long been considered Russia’s sphere of influence. China presents these meetings with the Central Asian leaders as the “first major diplomatic activity” it has hosted this year and an opportunity to draw a “new blueprint” with the post-Soviet states that lie between its western borders, Europe and the Middle East. Beijing and Central Asian nations are expected to sign agreements on economic co-operation, as the region suffers from the knock-on economic effects of Russia's war in Ukraine. The leaders will also discuss security co-operation and ensuring stability in the wake of unrest and militant threats, with China seeking to ensure security but not take up Russia's broader regional security role.
China's special envoy to Europe, Li Hui, has visited Ukraine in an effort to ease the country's conflict with Russia. The visit followed a discussion between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in the first contact between the two heads of state since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. Ukraine has warned China not to tacitly approve of Moscow's action by refusing to call it an invasion or war and saying that it will only accept a peace agreement respecting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Li will also visit Russia, Poland, France and Germany.
Xi Jinping, China's supreme leader, has recently visited the site of Xiongan New Area, a satellite city 100km south of Beijing, praising the progress of what he sees as his pet project. The development, once completed, will cover an area three times the size of New York City, and Xi plans to move many non-essential government departments and state-owned enterprises from Beijing to the area. However, some experts question whether Xiongan will be comparable to Shenzhen, China's first special economic zone, or to Shanghai's glittering financial district, Pudong. Critics say that those areas were granted much more freedom to create a market-oriented environment that would attract foreign and domestic businesses. Xi has expressed the desire for Xiongan's aspirations to be similar to Shenzhen's, but he also sees it as part of his aim to create "common prosperity", which has spooked entrepreneurs and investors. Incentives such as tax breaks, bonuses, or guarantees of educational opportunities for the children of people who move from Beijing or Tianjin are being discussed to encourage people to relocate to Xiongan.
China is concerned about the potential impact the SpaceX-run Starlink could have on its geopolitical ambitions. Starlink, a mega-constellation of satellites, provides off-grid high-bandwidth internet access, and has been vital to Ukraine’s war effort, allowing soldiers to communicate, identify targets and upload videos. With the system hard to jam, China fears it could put Russia at a disadvantage and make a Chinese invasion of Taiwan more difficult. However, Beijing also has ambitions of becoming a space power and is working on its own satellite internet systems. Concerns over crowded crowded skies and satellite collision have also been raised. In 2021, two of Starlink’s satellites were on a collision course with a Chinese space station, forcing it to move, while China fears the increasing number of satellites could place pressure on a limited low-Earth orbit space.
Myanmar's neighbours are unable to agree on what action should be taken over the country's conflict, as more than 1.3 million Burmese people have been displaced and over 30,000 killed since the military junta seized power in early 2021. A summit of the 10-country Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) on 10 May discussed progress on ASEAN’s draft peace plan for Myanmar. While some countries called for Myanmar’s generals to be invited back to the club’s meetings, more democratic countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore remained critical of the junta. ASEAN’s divisions are widening over the issue.
China has recently become the country closest to Myanmar’s junta, as it seeks to protect its investments and establish strategic advantage in a country that offers access to the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean, bypassing the Malacca Strait. China has already committed over $21bn into a China-Myanmar Economic Corridor of roads, railways, pipelines and a port. In addition to economic expansion, China is promoting President Xi Jinping’s foreign-policy mantra of “community with a shared future for mankind” that prioritises economic development over individual rights. China’s influence as ASEAN’s unity weakens is allowing the country to advance its interests to the detriment of Burmese people.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has offered warm birthday wishes to President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ahead of the two-day China-Central Asia summit getting underway today. Tokayev turned 70 on Wednesday, just ahead of the summit, which will begin via video link due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Amid the upbeat exchanges, observers suggested that the gestures indicated that China was anxious to show respect for the Central Asian leader, who is closely tied to China.
The G7 leaders are set to debate endorsing a proposed Ukraine peace summit with the aim of promoting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's proposal for how to end Russia's war against Ukraine rather than Beijing's proposal. Zelenskyy's 10-point plan includes a demand for Moscow to withdraw all its troops from Ukraine and for the country's full territorial integrity to be restored. China's version requires Russia to withdraw troops before peace negotiations are opened. The move by the G7 is seen as an effort to bolster support for Zelenskyy's peace plan, which has its Western allies concerned over the possible decline in US military support to Ukraine ahead of next year's US election. Ukraine has confirmed that it has contacted Beijing to reiterate that it will not accept a peace agreement involving a loss of Ukrainian territory and that it is interested in getting China involved in implementing the Ukrainian peace formula. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has blamed Ukraine for the lack of progress in peace talks, has so far not indicated that he will accept any solution other than a complete capitulation from Kyiv.
Comedian Li Haoshi has been arrested and his employer, Shanghai Xiaguo, fined CNY4.7m ($840,000) by Chinese authorities after he made a joke referencing President Xi Jinping’s military code. Li described dogs he adopted as chasing a squirrel with a military-like determination, stating: "Other dogs you see would make you think they are adorable. These two dogs reminded me of… 'Fight to win, forge exemplary conduct' ". The phrase is part of a slogan unveiled by Xi in 2013. The arrest and fine demonstrate a growing intolerance of criticism of Xi’s regime.
Leaders of the G7 gathered in Hiroshima, Japan this week to discuss several issues including the economic and security tensions with China and how the most advanced economies in the world can de-risk strategic industries and diversify global supply chains. A key issue at the summit was the need for leaders to reaffirm their pledge of support for Ukraine, and commitment to impose costs and pressure on Russia and any other nations that assist it. Leaders will focus on calling out China’s actions such as economic retaliation against nations over policy disputes and other agreements, and pledging that their nation's industries will resist such coercion and take concrete steps to start building resiliency. To make the world’s largest economies more resilient in strategic minerals and rare earths, the G7 summit should agree on a plan to collectively become more resilient. This week’s summit should also address how the G7 forum can continue to bolster the rules-based international order, its democratic values and norms, and how to drive technical standard-setting for emerging technologies.
The G7 is significant as it reflects an effort to bring in key countries in the Global South to balance against China’s growing diplomatic and economic influence in that sphere. This year’s summit coincides with a Quad Leaders’ meeting that will take place in Japan on the sidelines of the G7 following President Biden’s decision to shorten his Asia trip. The leaders of Australia, Japan, and India will come together to discuss the changing geopolitical scenario in the Indo-Pacific and will present China with a united and coherent strategy to tackle issues that put current international norms at risk. Given the strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific, there is a growing need for stakeholders to consolidate the rules-based order. It is without doubt that the Quad and G7 grouping need to find a sustainable consensus that would provide space for regional peace and stability in an increasingly competitive and contested world order. These forums should work together to fight back and preserve a space of international affairs which could, directly or indirectly, hurt China’s interests. Any concrete effort to this end will require a competitive collective approach and a shared vision for addressing complex challenges.
Former US President Donald Trump has accused incumbent President Joe Biden of taking a "pro-China" stance as the issue of China's relationship with the US becomes a likely flashpoint in the 2022 presidential election. Trump has urged policies that would escalate the confrontation with China faster and further than Biden's current plans, accusing the president of keeping "a straitjacket that is certainly limiting their freedom of manoeuvre." Although there is now broad support for tariff policies against China, Biden's administration need to ensure they do not rope allies into a full-blown economic war to persuade them of the specific security concerns the tariffs address, experts warn.
As Beijing's influence grows, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has pledged to build more railway and bolster China's oil and gas footing in Central Asia. Speaking at a summit attended by leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, Xi said there was a need to "expand economic and trade ties". The move follows China's ongoing creation of trade-related infrastructure in the former Soviet states under its Belt and Road Initiative. The projects have alarmed Russia, which views the region as its sphere of influence, but officials from Central Asia see China as an important market.
Global actors have been seeking their own solutions to the Ukrainian conflict, given concerns of differing views within the Group of Seven, the bloc composed of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the US. While Western states have vowed to provide huge amounts of military aid to Ukraine, countries elsewhere have been pushing for cessation of hostilities and a negotiated peace. Many politicians hope to give diplomatic initiatives a chance and have put forward peace plans with Russia and Ukraine. This includes China’s initiative, as China has significant leverage over Russia, but it has been deemed by analysts as working to preserve Russia’s advantage and undermine Ukraine, whereas Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has touted a nonaligned “peace club” to mediate a truce, irritating Washington DC further when accusing the West of helping to fuel the conflict with its shipments of weapons.
The United States must manage its efforts to balance assistance to Ukraine and deterrence against China to ensure both priorities are met, according to a report by The Heritage Foundation. Supporting the self-defense of Ukraine and the defense of Taiwan are both in the interest of the United States. Any form of forced unification of Taiwan by China would entail direct harm to US economic and national security interests, with global consequences. A Russia that emerges from the Ukraine war capable of further territorial aggression could also threaten NATO, non-NATO countries, and international trade routes.
To date, not enough has been done to ensure support for Ukraine does not detract from building a strong deterrence posture against China. The administration and Congress must first acknowledge this and then actively manage US efforts to accomplish both. Effective support for Ukraine will not only weaken the Kremlin’s foreign policy, generally, it will also constrain the resources Moscow has to cement its relationship with China, according to the report. The US should protect its interests in both theaters.
The US government provides defense articles, training, and services to eligible foreign governments through security assistance programs. Since February 24, 2022, the US has provided $36.9bn in security assistance to Ukraine, the report showed. However, policymakers should also understand the tension between the two countries’ foreign military sales (FMS) purchases while working to fix the administrative and capacity problems causing a backlog in FMS deliveries.
Chinese students at George Washington University in Washington, DC have established an independent union — the Independent Chinese Student Union — which aims to provide a platform to students free from the influence of the Chinese Communist Party. The fight to create this union and promote democracy on US campuses is significant, not only for the promotion of democratic ideals, but also as a stand against the CCP’s intellectual interference. The union’s initial 12 members have remained anonymous due to fears for the safety of themselves and their family members. Their goal is to establish an independent voice for the community, to protect students from CCP interference and to call attention to George Washington University’s investment in what they say are companies complicit in the Uyghur genocide. The establishment of the independent union is the latest in a number of recent signs that Chinese students are becoming politically active on American college campuses.
China is a near-peer—if not slightly ahead of—the United States in applied technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and supercomputers due to their advanced semiconductor chips. U.S. export controls covering the Semiconductor industry to China is critical for protecting U.S. economic primacy and temporarily curbing China's progress in developing advanced technologies, which might have dual-use purposes. These controls are expected to prevent the transfer of highly advanced semiconductor technology that is used for AI and supercomputers.
The African mediating mission announced by South Africa's president Cyril Ramaphosa may merit a mention when historians write about the rise of the post-unipolar world, according to an op-ed in the Financial Times. The author, Alec Russell, argues that the quixotic mediators from Africa underscore the accelerating assertiveness of the countries of the “global south”. Many non-western nations have seen the west's full-throttle support for Ukraine and regard it as hypocritical, with powers once again prioritising their own interests and concerns over other global issues such as health and climate change. The crisis has led to a renewed focus on the idea of six African heads of state criss-crossing the front lines of a European war, which threatens to totally rewrite the post-1945 world order.
The Brics summit in Durban in August will be a cacophonous showcase for the contradictions within the new “non-aligned movement”. The group consists of two autocracies, Russia and China, two big democracies, Brazil and India, and the host, and junior relation, South Africa. Now over a dozen more countries are interested in joining, including Iran. The risk, particularly for India and Brazil, is that the Brics could tilt ever more into becoming a China club.
The author suggests that the west should lead by example, commit finally to reforms of the global order and choose words more carefully. The Biden administration has been building bespoke regional alliances, but China is also busily convening summits of its own. New world orders, it is cautioned, are of course easier to declare than realise. South Africa’s chaotic mediating pas de deux with Russia is seen as an object lesson in how not to play the non-aligned game.
