The effectiveness of international sanctions is being challenged as Russia, China and Iran implement alternative financial systems, which blunts the impact of US policies and allows them to hide questionable behaviour. While the alternative financial system is currently limited, more nations will enter Beijing's orbit as China's economy grows, and the alternatives to the dollar will rise in popularity. It is essential that the US revitalises domestic manufacturing and makes and keeps friends. The US must build a coalition of its own to balance Beijing’s growing anti-American coalition, and to keep the dollar as strong as possible.
The challenge of global financial sanctions, a key tool in US foreign policy, is being intensified by rivals who have created an alternative finance system. China’s economy is growing, and in concert with Russia and Iran it has created a banking system beyond the control of American banks and financial institutions. This allows offending countries and corporations to hide illegal activities from global scrutiny. The Chinese Communist Party is also endorsing an independent currency that would challenge the US dollar. America must revitalise manufacturing and build a coalition beyond its traditional allies.
Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, has told local companies that she had to "plead" with them to find a "moral compass" and decline deals that may result in Moscow accessing sanctioned goods. Previously, it was noted by the Financial Times that an alarming $1bn of goods had passed through the Baltic states, believed to be partly part of Moscow's "ghost trade". Estonia and similar nations have seen a rise in exports to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia transiting through Russia, leaving suspicion about the scheme being used to circumvent the western sanctions regime.
An accusation from the US that South Africa has sold arms to Russia is putting over $15bn worth of exports on the line, which are crucial in supporting its manufacturing industry. President Cyril Ramaphosa and the African National Congress have promised an inquiry into whether arms were placed on a sanctioned Russian vessel at a Cape Town naval base in 2021, but South African businesses are sounding the alarm over their participation in the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a US law that grants duty-free terms to specific nations. South Africa’s future participation in a deal which is up for renewal in 2025 is already in doubt.
China is attempting to persuade both sides of the Ukraine conflict to resume negotiations, casting itself as a neutral and helpful global leader. This move comes as China becomes increasingly pessimistic it can prevent the deteriorating US-China relations. While Beijing wishes to preserve its relationship with Russia, it fears that its position viewed as pro-Russia will poison its reputation in Europe, further harming its security environment. As a result, China has attempted to be neutral and offer its good offices to bring both sides to the negotiating table.
The Ukrainian conflict presents complicated challenges for China, potentially strengthening US alliances in Europe and beyond. As a result, Beijing has begun to offer its good offices to resolve the crisis, articulating a vision for global security and becoming more involved diplomatically. China aims to position itself as neutral and limit its support for Russia, even as it prioritizes its partnership with its closest strategic partner.
Recent remarks by the Chinese ambassador to France that the status of Crimea depends on how the problem is perceived provoked widespread condemnation, and 80 European lawmakers urged the French government to expel the ambassador. The Chinese government tried to downplay the situation, stating that the ambassador was only expressing his personal views. China is likely to do just enough to cast itself as a helpful and responsible global leader but not enough to be held accountable for achieving an end to the Ukraine conflict on terms that would be fair and acceptable to both sides.
China is to host an in-person summit of central Asian leaders this week, a bid to firm up its links with smaller former Soviet states, widely seen as Russia's backyard. China's president, Xi Jinping, is expected to discuss deepening economic and security links with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, a region which analysts say has been seeking alternative investment as Moscow concentrates on the Ukraine. The inaugural, virtual China-Central Asia leaders' summit was held in 2020, and China's trade with the five central Asia states has multiplied a hundred-fold since the establishment of diplomatic ties three decades ago.
China is seeking to strengthen its relationship with Kazakhstan, according to Chinese President Xi Jinping. The comments came ahead of China's first in-person summit of leaders from Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. These countries, all formerly part of the Soviet Union, are seeking alternative sources of investment as Moscow channels resources into the war in Ukraine. Since establishing ties 30 years ago, China's trade with the five Central Asian states has increased 100-fold, with investment between China and the group reaching over $70bn in 2022.
China's special envoy for Eurasia, Li Hui, will visit Brussels as part of his European tour, which began in Kyiv on 11 January, before passing through Warsaw, Paris, and Berlin, and concluding in Moscow. According to reports, Li added Brussels to his itinerary after being told that Kyiv would not accept any proposals leading to territorial loss. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said the country will not “accept any proposals that would involve the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflict”.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman with close links to President Vladimir Putin, has been uploading photos, videos and audio files for months to his Telegram channel. In his most recent clip, posted last week, he filmed himself in a bloodied field, with rows of corpses laid out behind him, berating the Russian military leaders for failing to give him the munitions he needed to fight in Ukraine’s Donbass region. Prigozhin, who is the leader of the notorious mercenary unit, the Wagner Group, has given a face to the brutalisation of the Putin regime, but some have wondered if he is a megalomaniac. The video shows the story of one man’s rise to unimaginable power, a man who can promise people their freedom or send them to their deaths.
Prigozhin made the conquering of Bakhmut in the Donbass his personal mission. Russian and Ukrainian media outlets say that Prigozhin, together with army commanders, developed a suicidal battle plan. It was his idea to attack the city before Ukrainian supply lines were cut, thus turning it into a battle of attrition – from the standpoint of both personnel and material. He was also allowed to recruit his fighters from the prisons of Russia. Of 30 men who were recruited for the mission from Rustam’s colony, he was apparently among the most able-bodied. Only nine of them managed to complete the required fitness test, the sit-ups and the pull-ups. Prigozhin’s troops have been butchered, and he is no longer receiving the munitions he needs.
There are up to 10,000 Wagner fighters currently in Ukraine, according to a senior official in the Ukrainian military intelligence agency, and most of them have been deployed in and around Bakhmut where housing block by housing block, destroyed home by destroyed home, the Ukrainians have pulled back. Prigozhin poses as Putin’s loyal bloodhound, but has threatened the very system the president has built up. While he takes care of dirty work for Putin, Prigozhin has given a face to the brutalisation of the Putin regime, although his grip on power is unclear.
Former US Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger has warned of a fast-approaching situation of “great-power confrontation” between China and the US. As both nations compete for pre-eminence in technology and the economy, Kissinger expressed his fears that the rapid advances in AI could lead to disaster. With a lack of principles on which to establish order as power balances shift worldwide, the risk of force becomes evermore likely. The fate of humanity is dependent on how the US and China interact with one another, says Kissinger, as he sees the two nations having just five to ten years to secure a good relationship. The focus for Kissinger now is on future international relations and how to prevent conflict between global powers.
Elon Musk has been accused of playing a leading role in the spread of disinformation on Twitter, as he gives priority to “playing footsies with the crazies” over working for some of his much vaunted causes such as artificial intelligence, climate change, and revolutionising transport. The allegations follow comments Musk made on the social media platform inferred to be anti-Semitic and anti-humanity. Critics accuse the businessman of exercising his freedom of speech to bully and belittle others online but of blocking media coverage that does not flatter him.
The G7 will meet in Japan and there are increasing expectations that the group will tighten economic sanctions against Russia. Despite the reality that sanctions have affected Russia with a heavy toll, it is widely believed they have not succeeded in their geopolitical aims. The sanctions have instead driven Russia deeper into the embrace of emerging-market nations such as China, India and Turkey, providing leverage for Russian foreign policy and making a nonsense of western compliance efforts. There is even wider concern related to the potential that sanctions could collapse an already weak global economy. The EU has also recently announced that it was considering penalties for EU firms that help Russia evade western sanctions, such as providing financing, investing in sanctioned sectors, or sharing technologies that could aid the energy sector.
US Vice President Joe Biden has cancelled a scheduled trip to Australia following his attendance at the G7 summit in Japan. Biden has been required to return to Washington to deal with the debt-ceiling stand-off in Congress, an impediment caused by Republican opposition to aid Obama’s manoeuvrability within fiscal responsibility. This marks the latest casualty in the US’s frustrating attempts to refocus foreign policy towards Asia; Obama experienced a similar setback when his bid to turn US attention away from the Middle East towards the East was disrupted by the surge of ISIS and the civil war in Syria. It is believed that the breakdown in US foreign policy could lead to China becoming a dominant force in the Asia-Pacific region, and highlights the difficulty faced by President Biden in his ongoing attempts to build a counterweight to China’s economic dominance.
President Xi Jinping is hosting a two-day summit in Xi'an for the inaugural China-Central Asia summit, inviting leaders from five Central Asian countries to offset US “crusade” against them “with a new model of regional cooperation”. The move is part of China's broader aim to strengthen economic and political partnerships with like-minded countries to counter what it sees as a US-dominated world order, which is trying to contain and suppress China. The summit is also an opportunity for China to fill in the void left by Russia, which has seen its influence in the region decrease due to its war with Ukraine. The move is seen as symbolic, as the summit is taking place in Xi'an, the central Chinese city that was a key stop on the ancient Silk Road trade route that linked China with Central Asia and the Middle East for centuries.
China woos Central Asia as Ukraine war weakens Russian influence
CNN
23-05-18 07:21
Leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, are meeting in Xi’an, China, to discuss trade, regional stability and security. It is the first in-person meeting of the Central Asian heads of state together with China since the establishment of diplomatic relations after the fall of the Soviet Union. China hopes to expand its influence over the region, which has long been considered Russia’s sphere of influence. China presents these meetings with the Central Asian leaders as the “first major diplomatic activity” it has hosted this year and an opportunity to draw a “new blueprint” with the post-Soviet states that lie between its western borders, Europe and the Middle East. Beijing and Central Asian nations are expected to sign agreements on economic co-operation, as the region suffers from the knock-on economic effects of Russia's war in Ukraine. The leaders will also discuss security co-operation and ensuring stability in the wake of unrest and militant threats, with China seeking to ensure security but not take up Russia's broader regional security role.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has offered warm birthday wishes to President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ahead of the two-day China-Central Asia summit getting underway today. Tokayev turned 70 on Wednesday, just ahead of the summit, which will begin via video link due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Amid the upbeat exchanges, observers suggested that the gestures indicated that China was anxious to show respect for the Central Asian leader, who is closely tied to China.
South Africa’s foreign policy is in disarray and risks being pulled in different directions as the world order changes, according to analysis in the Financial Times. The paper questions whether officials know whether it has been exporting arms to Russia and argues the inconsistency of the ruling African National Congress stems in part from its nostalgia for the Soviet Union and from links between Russian oligarchs and the ANC. As non-western nations increase their global economic output, South Africa is poised at the intersection of external pressure from larger nations and internal debate over ideals and identity.
Leaders of the Group of Seven advanced economies (G7) have discussed how to build support for a “strong response to economic coercion” by China. Ahead of a summit in Hiroshima, US officials predicted a joint response from all countries, which will involve protecting technologies in areas of national security. The EU has also been seeking to create support for a strategy against economic coercion, to “derisk” rather than disconnect from, China. However, all seven members of the G7 require a positive relationship with the world’s second-largest economy. The US imported goods amounting to $537bn from China last year, while its businesses invested nearly $120bn in China. EU investments in China over the course of two decades amounted to over $140bn. In the face of criticisms from the US, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin argued that the US was the chief culprit in the coercion of China.
The G7 summit in Hiroshima is particularly important given the current geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and tensions between China and the US. President Biden is keen to coordinate with democratic allies to deal with both issues. Observers will be watching for a convincing show of unity from the G7 on both China and Russia, and to see if that unity extends beyond rhetoric. The American emphasis on the G7, rather than the G20, marks a shift from a period dominated by economics and globalisation to a new era defined by politics and strategic rivalries.
An exhibition at Le Stanze del Vetro in Venice, co-curated by Sylva Petrová, a curator at Prague’s Museum of Decorative Arts, has shed light on Czechoslovakia’s autonomous tradition of fine art in glass. Bohemian Glass: The Great Masters showcases six pioneers of Czech glass art from the 20th century. Designers of the period experimented with glass as a medium of art, exploring artistic creativity beyond the decorative or functional. More than 150 exhibits feature in the show, with around 80 from Caterina Tognon’s Venice-based private collection of about 1,000 pieces, and 40 from UPM. Some exhibits are on loan from artists’ estates. Over 41 years of communist rule, glass was the only medium possible to artists. Private enterprise was banned and fine artists had to embrace socialist realism as a requirement. For this reason, many artists turned to the glass factories to experiment and work, while officially designing useful items such as ashtrays. Landau compares the function of glass art in Czechoslovakia's communist-era to that of jazz music, in that it formed "an underground" movement, however he conceded this was allowed to surface on the world stage.
