Russia has warned Western countries that they will be running "colossal risks" by supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. Ukraine has been requesting the planes from NATO countries but has yet to receive any commitments. US President Joe Biden has told G7 leaders that the US supports joint allied training programs for Ukrainian pilots on F-16s. While Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Colonel Yuri Ignat said that once deployed, the F-16 fighters would help Ukraine win the war by providing defensive cover in areas out of range of anti-aircraft missiles.
The possibility of Ukrainian pilots being trained on advanced F-16 fighter jets is a message to Russia that the country should not expect to succeed in an invasion of Ukraine, said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sunday following a G7 summit. While Ukraine has not secured delivery of the planes, US President Joe Biden has signaled that Washington supports joint allied training programs for Ukrainian pilots using F-16s. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko warned that Western countries risked much by supplying F-16s to Ukraine. Training will take place in Europe and will take at least 18 months.
The Group of Seven (G7) has sought “constructive” relations with China while criticising its human rights record and territorial claims. The G7 sought collaboration in areas such as climate change while also expressing concerns over Beijing’s growing influence, particularly in the East and South China Seas, and the crackdowns on freedoms in Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang. The club of wealthy democracies acknowledged the need for “de-risking and diversifying” rather than decoupling from China to ensure economic resilience in the face of their increasing “non-market policies and practices”. China rejected the G7 statement as interference in its internal affairs.
Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has pushed for global unity and clear leadership in the face of Russia's aggression as he attended the G7 summit in Hiroshima. Using the opportunity to confront India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi and Brazil's President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who have maintained diplomatic ties with Moscow, Zelenskyy raised his 10-point plan to end the Ukraine conflict. The US has been a significant backer of Ukraine since Russia invaded the country in 2014, with the Biden administration unveiling a new $375m arms package for Ukraine to aid it in its defence against Russian aggression.
While some aspects of Ukraine's military response to the Russian invasion have been prompt, others have been slow. The UK, the US and Poland have given military support to Ukraine swiftly, but other countries have been extremely slow. Defence companies are ready to step up and Ukraine needs a more flexible pipeline of orders. Any country has the right to defend itself and ask its friends for help. NATO should review the commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence by next year; a new minimum of 2.5% should be the target to ensure democracy is safe.
Estonia and Latvia are conducting one of the biggest-ever co-operation deals in defence since they are jointly acquiring German air-defence systems in a move aimed to protect their NATO nations' airspace. The medium-range IRIS-T SLM air defence system is still awaiting negotiations and is being manufactured by Germany’s defence weapons maker, Diehl Defence, with possible delivery set for 2025. The German air-defence system includes truck-mounted launchers, missiles and a separate command vehicle, and is designed to tackle a host of threats, including unmanned aerial vehicles, cruise missiles and loitering munitions. The air-defence system can neutralise planes and helicopters, as well as protecting cities, armies and civilian populations from air attacks and is effective in this regard. The agreed-value of the deal has not yet been revealed.
Estonia and Latvia are set to begin negotiations with Diehl Defence to purchase a medium-range air defence system, which includes additional capabilities in infrastructure, personnel, training and equipment. The cost of the Iris-T SLM air defence system will be determined at the negotiations, and they could be concluded during the summer. The agreement is part of a drive to ensure operational medium-range air defence capabilities for Estonia by 2025. Last year, Estonia and Latvia joined 14 European NATO partners to sign a letter of intent to share resources to procure air defence systems.
Estonia and Latvia are joining efforts to jointly acquire German air defense systems to protect their NATO nations’ airspaces. They are to acquire medium-range IRIS-T SLM air defense systems manufactured by Diehl Defense in Germany. Although the exact number and cost of the systems were not mentioned, they will consist of truck-mounted launchers and missiles and a separate command vehicle, and can be used to neutralize planes, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles, and other threats such as cruise missiles and loitering munitions. Deliveries are estimated to begin in 2025.
Estonia and Latvia are in negotiations to purchase German-manufactured the medium-range IRIS-T SLM defence system from Diehl Defence. If successful, it will become the biggest defence cooperation project between Tallin and Riga, costing hundreds of millions of euros. The two countries hope to finalise the contract and make an announcement this summer. Neither country possesses an air force meaning they rely on NATO to patrol their airspace.
An Afghan colonel who fought alongside British troops has received a threat of deportation to Rwanda after fleeing to the UK on a small boat following the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in August 2021. The veteran claims that he was not helped after leaving his family behind in Afghanistan to escape danger, and has now received the notice of intent from the Home Office after applying to the Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy (Arap). The colonel is being supported by Care4Calais and requires urgent assistance as regards his case, having gone through at least 11 countries before arriving in the UK.
The Afghan colonel is one of many veterans who served British interests in Afghanistan and are now being threatened with deportation or are forced to flee through illegal routes as a result of strict restrictions and delays in the UK’s evacuation schemes. Speaking to Care4Calais, he expressed concerns for his family in case he is deported to Rwanda and criticized the UK’s abandonment of Afghan military personnel when the Taliban gained power. Former heads of the Royal Navy and Army have stated that the UK has free moral obligations to Afghan military personnel to secure their safe migration to the country for a better life.
Afghanistan now lies at security risk as the Taliban fights to consolidate its grip on the country, with many civilians and former military personnel facing arrest and execution. The UK’s deadline of 31 August 2021 to evacuate Afghans who had supported coalition forces was met with criticism after only a select few were evacuated in time. The latest case involving the Afghan colonel joins a list of controversial immigration policy actions by the UK government that have been harshly criticized by NGOs and human rights activists.
Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov has warned that the supply of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine could involve NATO forces in the conflict. Amid concerns over Russia's response, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte have agreed to build an "international coalition" to develop fighter jet support for Ukraine, while President Joe Biden has endorsed pilot training programmes for Ukrainian pilots on F-16s. Antonov stated that any Ukrainian attack on Crimea would constitute an attack on Russia, adding that the US needed to be aware of Moscow's potential response.
Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine have serious implications for the global nuclear nonproliferation regime. It could weaken the effectiveness and trust in the negative security assurances made by the major nuclear powers. Russia's nuclear threat against Ukraine undermines the self-restraint that underpins the NPT regime. If the threat were to be carried out, it could set a dangerous precedent of a nuclear power using nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state. This article argues that while Russia has hinted at the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons in the war, the effectiveness of using such weapons would be low and would damage the Russian military. It also argues that US intervention is unlikely and that a combination of Ukraine's efforts to resist Russian nuclear blackmail and enhancing Ukraine's military capabilities with the help of arms provision from other countries in addition to US nuclear deterrence are essential.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine and statements made by Putin indicate Moscow’s intention to use nuclear weapons strategically, including low-yield tactical nuclear weapons. Russia’s missile strikes on Ukrainian cities are a manifestation of Russia’s strategic, non-nuclear ‘deterrence.’ This could lead to Russia using low-yield tactical nuclear weapons against cities or high-value targets, further exacerbating the situation. Ukraine is a non-nuclear state that cannot deter Russia’s nuclear threats with nuclear weapons. The US is unlikely to retaliate with force, including nuclear weapons. The current US nuclear posture may not be enough to deter Russia’s nuclear blackmail. Therefore, a combination of efforts, including Ukraine’s conventional warfare, enhancing Ukraine’s military capabilities with arms provisions from other countries, and US nuclear deterrence may be essential in deterring Russia’s nuclear blackmail.
Russia's Ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, has warned that the transfer of F-16 jets to Ukraine would raise questions over NATO's involvement in the conflict and further escalate tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian strikes on Russian-held targets, particularly on the Crimean Peninsula, have intensified in recent weeks. Antonov has stated that any Ukrainian strike on Crimea would be considered a strike on Russia and the US should be fully aware of Russia's response. President Joe Biden endorsed training programs for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jet fighters last week, however, Antonov argued that Ukraine currently lacks the necessary infrastructure and personnel for the operation of these planes.
The United States and Europe should shift their defence priorities to address threats in Asia rather than Europe, according to an op-ed in Foreign Affairs. The rise of China and the intensification of the Chinese-U.S. rivalry have increased the risks of combat and the prospect of deterrence failure in Europe or Asia, wrote Emma Ashford, Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim. The US would gain little by being the primary security provider for European countries who could afford to fund their own defence against Russia. However, many policymakers in Washington believe that any significant US military drawdown from Europe would sever US ties with the continent and the world by validating China and Russia’s self-interested pictures of the US.
The US is not capable of conducting full-scale operations against China and Russia simultaneously, and acts as a primary security provider to European countries that can afford to fund their own defence against Russia. Transferring most of the responsibility for defending Europe to European states themselves would allow the United States to shift to a supporting role, wrote Emma Ashford, Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim. The European Union had a GDP more than nine times larger than that of Russia in 2021, even its much-maligned military spending is already almost four times greater than Russia’s, and it has roughly three times the population of Russia.
Russia cannot become a European hegemon, and the United States would remain a constructive NATO ally with a largely offshore troop presence, according to the article. If Russia were to attack a member of NATO, the United States would retain a spectrum of retaliatory options. In order to develop realistic policy options commensurate with the threat posed to US interests, Washington needs to gauge the Russian threat accurately, according to the authors.
Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s ambassador to the US, has warned that the proposed transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv raises the involvement of NATO in Kiev’s conflict with Moscow. The US President Joe Biden has approved training programs for Ukrainian air force pilots on the jets. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has assured Biden that the F-16s will not be used to launch missions into Russian-held territory. Meanwhile, Antonov has also warned that any Ukrainian strike on the country’s Crimean peninsula would be viewed as an attack on Russia. He added that it was “important that the United States be fully aware of the Russian response”.
A book by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writers Reinhard Bingener and Markus Wehner examines why German politicians were so accepting of Russia and Vladimir Putin. The authors describe Gerhard Schröder, the former German chancellor, as Putin's "apologist-in-chief", while his Social Democrat compatriots, Sigmar Gabriel and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, also described by the authors as villains, drove Germany dependancy on Russia, partly through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The Greens are depicted more favourably as they opposed the project from the start. German chancellor, Angela Merkel, also receives criticism for her support for Nord Stream 2.
South Korea has been holding talks this week with top European Union (EU) officials at a summit in Seoul, marking 60 years of diplomatic relations between the allies. Talks focused on strengthening trade agreements, as well as North Korea’s nuclear programme and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The three parties agreed to take action against global threats, notably North Korea’s ballistic missile launches and increasing nuclear potential, as well as Russia’s aggression and seizure of Ukrainian territory. The leaders also vowed to address the climate crisis, establishing a “green partnership” between South Korea and the EU.
The US has given the green light for a coalition to transfer F-16 combat aircraft to Ukraine to replace its fleet of MiGs and Sukhoi jets. The UK and other nations have said they are ready to offer pilot training. The new F-16s could be a turning point in the air battle since they have modern radar and avionics and a highly capable electronic warfare suite. They are a multi-role fighter and would be able to carry the most modern and capable western weapons. Currently, the majority of equipment offered to Ukraine has been about holding the line or stopping endless missile salvos aimed at cities and civilians.
NATO forces have launched joint military exercises in Albania and other Balkan states. The Immediate Response drills, which involve soldiers from the US and other countries including Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece and Turkey, are part of the DEFENDER 23 multi-national joint exercise. The aim of the two-week exercise is to build readiness and interoperability between the US and NATO allies, as well as to demonstrate the US military’s ability to rapidly deploy troops and equipment to Europe. The drills are the first such large-scale exercises held in the Western Balkans since World War II.
JPMorgan Chase is to spend $15.7bn on new initiatives, including investments in technology, marketing and hiring, according to co-head of the bank’s consumer and community division, Marianne Lake. Her unit is set to spend $7.9bn on new investments, which represents an $800m increase from 2022. The announcement comes on the back of a year in which smaller lenders have faced pressure and represents the latest example of the widening gap between small and large US banks. The wider spending will be $2bn more than the bank spent last year.
