African countries, including Zambia, Senegal, Egypt and South Africa, have drawn up a peace initiative to put an end to the conflict in Ukraine. The proposed mission will visit Moscow and Kiev as part of the peace process. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who represented the initiative, also said that UN Secretary-General Antonio Gruterres and the African Union (AU) had been briefed and welcomed the initiative.
It is unclear whether Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia has begun. Analysts suggest that while Ukraine is conducting local counteroffensives in and around the city of Bakhmut, it is still engaging in shaping operations to position itself better before the real action starts. Russia's forces had taken a defensive posture in Bakhmut, which means Ukraine risks losing equipment and soldiers. Kiev has been securing military support from European allies like France and Germany, hoping that a successful campaign could force Russia to negotiate peace terms.
Russian missile strikes on May 16 may have damaged the US-made Patriot missile defence system, which is currently used by Ukraine, according to two anonymous US officials. Though the system has not been destroyed, the two countries are reportedly discussing the best way to repair it without having to remove it from Ukraine. The alleged damage follows a warning from Vladimir Putin to target and destroy anti-missile defence systems supplied by the West to Ukraine. The Patriot system is designed to counter a range of threats, from ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to aircraft.
Russia has been ramping up the number of missiles it fires in order to confuse and overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences. However, according to one US official, this may have worked to Ukraine’s advantage as it forced Russia to go through more of its limited supply of precision weaponry that can home in on targets. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke at a summit of the Council of Europe, where he said that recent battlefield successes showed that Ukraine could achieve anything as long as it was united. These included shooting down 18 Russian missiles overnight, including a volley of six Kinzhals, which Russia claims have hypersonic capabilities.
Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, has told local companies that she had to "plead" with them to find a "moral compass" and decline deals that may result in Moscow accessing sanctioned goods. Previously, it was noted by the Financial Times that an alarming $1bn of goods had passed through the Baltic states, believed to be partly part of Moscow's "ghost trade". Estonia and similar nations have seen a rise in exports to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia transiting through Russia, leaving suspicion about the scheme being used to circumvent the western sanctions regime.
An accusation from the US that South Africa has sold arms to Russia is putting over $15bn worth of exports on the line, which are crucial in supporting its manufacturing industry. President Cyril Ramaphosa and the African National Congress have promised an inquiry into whether arms were placed on a sanctioned Russian vessel at a Cape Town naval base in 2021, but South African businesses are sounding the alarm over their participation in the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a US law that grants duty-free terms to specific nations. South Africa’s future participation in a deal which is up for renewal in 2025 is already in doubt.
The Council of Europe (CoE) has approved a “Register of Damage” to identify financial compensation owed for damage in Ukraine caused by Russian forces. Marija Pejcinovic Buric, Council head, called the register an “urgent, necessary, first step.” The US, Canada, and Japan, as well as over 40 countries, backed the register. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said it would be important in punishing “war crimes of Russian occupiers” while supporting potential future legal proceedings. The Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also pledged to provide a coalition giving Ukraine combat air capabilities.
An opinion poll of 1,100 people in Kazakhstan has shown that 15% now believe that neighboring Russia may invade, double the percentage that held this view 6 months ago, a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Kazakhstan shares its longest continuous border with Russia, and has maintained neutrality in the Ukrainian conflict, though remains close in historical, economic and security ties with Moscow.
China is to host an in-person summit of central Asian leaders this week, a bid to firm up its links with smaller former Soviet states, widely seen as Russia's backyard. China's president, Xi Jinping, is expected to discuss deepening economic and security links with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, a region which analysts say has been seeking alternative investment as Moscow concentrates on the Ukraine. The inaugural, virtual China-Central Asia leaders' summit was held in 2020, and China's trade with the five central Asia states has multiplied a hundred-fold since the establishment of diplomatic ties three decades ago.
Biden to leave Wednesday for shortened overseas trip to Japan
CNN
23-05-17 09:07
US President Joe Biden’s trip to Asia has been cut short due to the impasse over raising the US debt ceiling, which has the potential to cause an unprecedented first-ever default if it is not resolved by November. The debt issue contrasts with Biden’s plan to strengthen American alliances, tackle China’s influence, and show his stamina for another term in office. Biden is heading to Japan, but will miss out on the pre-planned second half of his trip, which included visiting Australia and Papua New Guinea. Meanwhile, a summit of the Quad leaders scheduled to take place in Sydney has been cancelled as Biden will not be attending. There remain concerns of a global economic meltdown if the borrowing limit stalemate is not resolved. Additionally, it could go against the functional democracy kind of image that Biden has sought to present to the world in his attempt to counter the rise of authoritarian regimes.
Russia orders arrest of prominent producer, director who criticized Ukraine war
The Toronto Star
23-05-17 09:05
A Moscow court has issued arrest warrants for theatre director Ivan Vyrypaev and film producer Alexander Rodnyansky over allegations of "spreading false information" about the Russian army. Rodnyansky, who is of Ukrainian origin, is a vocal critic of the Kremlin and has previously been declared a "foreign agent" by Russia's Justice Ministry. Both Rodnyansky and Vyrypaev are overseas, and Russian officers only plan to put them into custody once they are arrested or extradited. Since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Russian state has criminalised any opposition to the war.
Activist jailed for 7 years in Russia for "justifying terrorism"
Reuters
23-05-17 13:53
A Ukrainian-born activist, Mikhail Krieger, has been sentenced to seven years in prison by a Russian court. He was found guilty of "justifying terrorism" in social media posts made last year praising two men who attacked buildings of Russia's Federal Security Service. Prosecutors accused him of "inciting hatred" in statements on social media that President Vladimir Putin should be hanged. Krieger denied the charges and used the trial as an opportunity to speak out against the war in Ukraine. Russian rights groups have designated him a political prisoner.
The European Union’s head of enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, has cautioned Bosnia-Herzegovina that EU allies should not visit Russia, leading to speculation that the Balkans nation’s application to join the EU could be in jeopardy. Bosnia-Herzegovina was granted candidate status in December, in part due to concerns that the Ukraine conflict could have destabilising effects in the Balkans. However, there is no unified stance on foreign policy within the country, with Serb nationalist leader Milorad Dodik maintaining close relations with President Vladimir Putin of Russia.
The final vessel containing Ukrainian grain left a port last week, sent under a deal whereby UN mediators and Turkey brokered a 120-day agreement in July 2021 allowing four countries in the Black Sea region to export wheat again. The move followed Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which has caused a global food crisis, seeking to halt a rapid economic downturn caused by the outbreak of COVID-19. This extension was due to expire on 21 March, when Russia imposed new restrictions on Black Sea grain shipments. The Kremlin granted a 60-day extension, due to expire on 18 May, threatening the renewal of Black Sea exports. UN officials met in Istanbul last week to discuss the Black Sea pact; Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu suggested the deal could be extended for two more months at least, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Pesko called for 'decisions to be made.' The Joint Coordination Centre, made up by representatives from Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and the UN in Istanbul, typically authorizes and inspects each ship permitted to travel Black Sea waters.
Discussions are taking place to renew the Black Sea grain deal that allows wartime exports of Ukrainian grain. The deal ends on Thursday, and Russia is requesting more support for its own sales of fertilisers and food. However, a Turkish source claimed to see a high probability that the grain deal would be extended. Meanwhile, leaders of the Group of Seven nations intend to further tighten sanctions on Russia at their summit this week. In addition, fighting continues between Russian forces and Ukrainian rebels.
India's Russian oil buying hits record high, slashes Mideast, Africa share
Reuters
23-05-17 12:38
India's oil imports from Russia reached a new monthly record high in April, according to data sources, as the country increasingly shuns Middle Eastern and African grades. The Indian state and private refiners bought 4.4% more Russian oil than the previous month, with 1.9 million bpd imported in April alone. Overall, imports from the C.I.S. countries, which include Russia, now make up 43.6% of India's purchases, with Middle Eastern grades accounting for about 44% and African oil at a meagre 3.4%.
The Arab League, a largely impotent body, will welcome back Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad on 29 March, at the first annual meeting of Arab leaders since Syria’s suspension 12 years ago. Despite Western retaliation aimed at isolating Assad, most Arab states are now welcoming him back, leaving the US and Europe to staunchly enforce sanctions against the regime in order to avoid full normalisation. Despite this, there are no simple solutions available to stymie the plight of Syrians suffering in the country. As leader of a country hounded by civil war, Assad has given no indication of feeling remorse or even changing his behavior. The Syrian leader has tortured, imprisoned, bombed, gassed, and besieged his own people, leaving around 300,000 dead and many displaced. By accepting him back into the fold Arab diplomacy signals to victims of the regime’s atrocities, that Assad may continue with impunity.
China's special envoy for Eurasia, Li Hui, will visit Brussels as part of his European tour, which began in Kyiv on 11 January, before passing through Warsaw, Paris, and Berlin, and concluding in Moscow. According to reports, Li added Brussels to his itinerary after being told that Kyiv would not accept any proposals leading to territorial loss. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said the country will not “accept any proposals that would involve the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflict”.
Russia has agreed to extend the Black Sea grain corridor agreement with Ukraine for two more months, according to Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The pact had been under threat after Moscow claimed obstacles caused by Western sanctions made it difficult for Russia to export its own food and fertilisers. The move will allow ships carrying food from Ukraine to use the Black Sea without being involved in the fighting by Russian and Ukrainian troops on land, according to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
Biden off to Japan for Group of Seven summit, says there’s ‘work to do’ on global stage
The Toronto Star
23-05-17 17:05
US President Joe Biden has warned that there is “work to do” on the global stage, amid high-stakes negotiations in Washington over a federal default and geopolitical concerns over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s assertiveness in the Pacific. Although Biden pledged to remain in contact with negotiators in the capital while travelling overseas, his trip has already been cut short. Speaking before leaving the White House, Biden stated that he had made “clear America is not a deadbeat nation”, amid concerns that a federal default would not just spark a deep recession but could also weaken its standing on the international stage.
President Joe Biden has gone to Japan for a summit with allied powers focusing on issues such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China’s actions in the Pacific. As he departed Washington on Wednesday, talks were ongoing to head off a federal default. Biden is pledging to remain in contact with negotiators in Washington while conducting international diplomacy. Biden had also planned to visit Papua New Guinea and Australia amid the showdown over raising the federal debt limit, but has scrapped these plans. The president is expected to attend the annual G7 summit in Hiroshima to discuss global economic issues, climate change and development.
