The US is not capable of conducting full-scale operations against China and Russia simultaneously, and acts as a primary security provider to European countries that can afford to fund their own defence against Russia. Transferring most of the responsibility for defending Europe to European states themselves would allow the United States to shift to a supporting role, wrote Emma Ashford, Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim. The European Union had a GDP more than nine times larger than that of Russia in 2021, even its much-maligned military spending is already almost four times greater than Russia’s, and it has roughly three times the population of Russia.
Russia cannot become a European hegemon, and the United States would remain a constructive NATO ally with a largely offshore troop presence, according to the article. If Russia were to attack a member of NATO, the United States would retain a spectrum of retaliatory options. In order to develop realistic policy options commensurate with the threat posed to US interests, Washington needs to gauge the Russian threat accurately, according to the authors.